mike santoli, thank you. let's get into this tech sell-off, one of the worst performing sectors joining us now, dan niles. you're not on the phone. dan, this is looking today like what you've been predicting for a while, a series of bear market rallies that fade. what are the characteristics here that you're looking at, maybe particularly in tech, to see if your thesis is holding up >> i think nike this morning is a good harbinger of what you can expect during earnings season. so i was looking at it closely if you look at the forward numbers, we had a tweet on it this morning none of the things that they talked about were unknown. they talked about foreign exchange we all know the dollar is up a lot. they talked about china being an issue on the demand side, so, again, not a huge surprise there. we know cities are being locked down and they talked about supply chain costs and freight costs. again, no surprise there what's interesting is this morning the stock was obviously up 3% pretty early, and now it's dow

. >>> first up, today's market action and the return of mike santoli. mike, what are you focused on today? >>> sara, this week, the last two weeks, the market has been kind of ping-ponging on a very short table in kind of a trading range but interestingly as we all wait for the cpi number, the market doesn't just sit still and wait it kind of tests the upside and down side. that's what when little sideways stretch is right here. in effect, the s&p is trying to kind of get back up into this year long range, 4,200 we're still 8% or 9% above those lows as we absorb more than 3% on the ten-year treasury yield, close to 3% on shorter maturities and then, of course, oil clicking to new highs in wti so you could look at this and say the markets may be priced in a lot including the down grades to earnings. we just don't know if it's fully reflected. take a look at the path of second quarter earnings consensus forecast for the s&p 500. this is the end of june, when the quarter itself ends. this is from credit suisse and it shows you the historical trend the past

and with that, i'll turn it over to mike santoli in "overtime." >> thank you, jon.o "overtime." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard that we're just getting started. in moments we'll get earnings from nike. we'll get that plus instant reaction >>> plus breaking news from the banks. they're expecting to announce their capital allocation plans after breezing through last week's stress tests. >>> but we start with our talk of the tape. a bear bounce or a bottom? stocks taking a breather today after last week'

over to my friend mike santoli for "overtime. >>> welcome to "overtime."n for scott wapner in just a few minutes we'll speak with liz ann sonders opening up her playbook as we gear up for the second hatch of the year we begin with our talk of the tape, wall street's waiting game, investors hitting the pause button ahead of key inflation data due out tomorrow before the bell. what is at stake with josh brown. we saw the

and with that let me hand it over to mike santoli and "overtime. >>> welcome to "overtime."ntoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bells but we're just getting started just ahead we'll get earnings from micron. the chip maker releasing results at any moment. we'll bring you those numbers as soon as they cross we start with our talk of the tape the great tug of war between inflation shock fading a bit and growth fears rising. which will win out as the s&p 500 officially hands in its worst start to a year since 1970, over half a year

bank of america out with a new note saying now may be a good time to buy stocks mike santoli taking a his dashboard. turns out they were right at least today. >> it's moving in the right direction. what's the market been doing since less than two weeks ago. it's up 9% and has been feeding off negative sentiment that's built up the past few months hedge fund positioning, investor surveys, all of the rest this measures the recommended equity allocation by consensus of wall street strategists this is what the strategists are telling their clients to do in terms of how much stock to hold in their portfolio it's got down to 55% that qualifies as the low end of the range. when this is low, it means there's a buildup of fear, of defensiveness in the market and usually the market over a 12-month period tends to do well 90% of the time it has done well what's fascinating is we're not near the bearishness we saw in 2011, '12 or even '16 or '17 so it's going in that direction but not a flashing green light. >> so maybe nauot capitulation - >> i think we did stop short of being all-out terror i c

. >>> time for mike santoli's dashboard.e economy growing at its slowest pace since 2008. >> this goes back more than 70 years and it just really plunged in a hurry to this slow growth mode so it's a precursor to being right into recession risks. not that many times it's fallen to this level and avoided a near-term recession. this really says what the market is up to you said cyclical stocks are lagging today. it is a defensive rally. one thing that's missing is employment is holding up that has to get worse to get a real recession take a look at how bonds are dealing with this. this is a story that's under way for a couple of months now corporate bonds really lagging governments right here this is the investment grade index. it was going tight with the government bond index but it's fallen away here this is the story. spread widening, macro increase in the market, it's moving in that direction. >> weaker oil and commodity prices and lower treasury yields, all part of the story today. mike, thanks. >>> after the break, the y

let's begin with the rally, though mike santoli with a closer look at the action and the s&p. >> yeah, we talked last week there was a chance we'd have a little tension release coming into this week, mostly because we got through so much ecb, fed meeting, big options expiration on friday then historic oversold conditions very rare extremes we've been worse than we got to after this 11% drop in the s&p after two weeks but we're in the zone where the market should have responded with a bounce the first step is in the books we did respond to oversold conditions this is a one-year chart we've risen to this point. we're still below the levels we were hoping we would hold going into last week 3810, something like that. so you still have plenty of steps along the way before this is anything more than a bounce i would say 4000 area is probably the minimum to say that this is maybe the start of something larger, because that's where a lot of things come together technically and also again it gets us back before this breakdown zone right there. so take a look, though, at this historical compari

and up next, mike santoli heads to the telestrator to look at the s&p 500 and if it is starting to lookold. and as we head to break, check out the top tickers on cnbc.com. mostly macro interest today. the ten year yield followed by the crude and the s&p and dow and tesla. but i didn't wait. i could've delayed telling my doctor i was short of breath just reading a book... but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had... atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness, contact your doctor. this is no time to wait. (vo) singing, or speaking. contacreason,doctor. or fun. daring, or thoughtful. sensitive, or strong. progress isn't either or progress is everything. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire minio

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day as always. plus we've got steve kovach, pippa stevens. we'll start off with the broader market stocks are plunging but we're off the worst levels the dow was down 928 points at the session low. got that in the final hour of trade. we recovered a little bit but boy, is it still painful there's the dow. s&p down 3.5%. nasdaq down more than 4% just one quote that also sticks with me today. peter sheer, who is really smart on credit from academy securities writing the market got what it wished for, but maybe, just maybe, hiking 75 basis points into a rapidly weakening economy isn't the best idea whether it was the right idea or not, we're certainly feeling the fallout today. >> yeah. obviously it wasn't the optimal decision nobody wanted to have to make that call most likely. but given the circumstances, that's where we are. i think that does shadow the credit market right now. even if you're only talking about it's only 75 basis points, credit doesn't look quite as stressed as it has a couple of ti

overall, pretty much unchanged now i will send it into overtime with mike santoli. time. i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner you just heard the bell. we're just getting started we begin with the talk of the tape a hard reality of a soft landing. jay powell warning congress that steep rate hikes could tip the economy into a recession, but stocks held in there as investors have assumed as much and were reassure that had the fed will do what it takes to bring down inflation so given today's action on the back of yesterday's rally, is the market finally showing real signs of

i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today. yesterday. it was 7

currency has lost more than half of its value since january cnbc's senior markets commentator mike santolis and why >> reporter: one is how far and fast the stock market had fallen the past couple of weeks the broad index is down almost 11% in two weeks that is extreme by almost any historical standard. in other words, the market very much primed for some kind of a bounce best day in a month. all of these down trends we've been in a down trend they have very sharp bounces usually they're fleeting one of them is going to stick. it will look like what happened today. way too soon to say this is the true bottom. we got through the fed rate hike last week. in some sense that will be enough to corral inflation. >> they say a recession is not inevitable but many business leaders disagree according to a recent survey from the conference board, more than 60% of ceos surveyed expect a recession by the end of next year or earlier. why the disconnect, mike >> well, it's inherently difficult, famously difficult to try to get any recession no official is going to say, guess what, we can't avoid a reces

mike santoli is looking at all of it. mike >> yeah, this is pretty dramatic and really pretty protracted at this point payback phase for the multiyear strength you had concentrated in growth stocks coming up to the peak in january, actually, november for the nasdaq. look at the forward valuation, the price earnings multiple for the nasdaq 100 stocks. of course this is heavily, heavily skewed to the top five biggest most profitable firms. you see just complete kind of unwind of that huge surge of excitement embedded in the valuations we got above 30. now just for 20 at the last reading. 19.9 or something like that. it does take you essentially back to this range that prevailed or capped valuations in 2017 into 2019. it is worth remembering even before we got into covid pandemic style trading people were saying the market was too aet concentrated in faang like stocks that's the level valuations got up to. they are beating stilts for this period and earnings were growing fast clearly this is as reliable as the underlying earn

. >> bring in mike santoli who is searching for what is cheap in the market and what does cheap mean in this market, mike. >> yeah. both tough questions, melissa. now to build on what steph was saying, top down aggregate basis, looking at the s&p 500, you're in the zone of potential fair value amount of valuation compression we have seen is pretty dramatic and matches what you tend to see in these bear market phases. however, we landed at a spot that's not observably cheap based on historical standards, 15 or 16 still has a lot to do with concentration of market value in relatively expensive large index stocks tesla, amazon, microsoft stocks are picking that up. so if you look at equal weighted s&p 500, it is 13 times forward, compared to lows we have seen in recent years like 2020, 2018 not that different really. and then small cap 600 which the russell 2,000 screen, it is under 11 times earnings, it is low as it gets now immediate question is but what are the earnings forecasts going to do. and it is absolutely the right question still a challenge. i point out every time we hit a lo

mike santoli, a look at momentum shifts in the market for the first dashboard today. what do you mean >> sara, the definition of momentum always changes based on what's been working recently here you see over the last three years the fate of momentum which is basically what already has been the strongest stocks. will they continue to perform well well, yes, they surged off of that late 2019 low into -- this is, of course, the peak of the growth stock and basically excitement for the tech stocks that were already very strong. that huge momentum breaker this is etf relative to s&p value. momentum versus value is one of the keys the market travels on we're pretty much back to the lowest levels of momentum we've seen in a while. what's going on? the momentum etf run has rebalanced its holdings every so often and just did so. again, the biggest net purchases of this etf over the last several days what you see is health care now the biggest sector more than doubled its rating from january to now, 11% to 23% energy trickled its rating and consumer staples quadrupled its rati

get into the outlook with senior markets commentator mike santoli. pain added to pain so far this morning. >> carl, yeah. striking about it in the first hour and a half of trading how comprehensive and systematic in terms of selling every stock in the s&p down at some point almost all stocks in the russell 1,000 also down. this shows you it's a massive repricing based on mostly what's happening in the bond market this idea that we thought we might be able to see several months ahead to where the fed got to where it wanted to. was able to restrain inflation in the economy without necessarily doing a lot of harm. then where the revaluation of the market is hitting the hardest, of course, the case all year, is where the valuations and absolute terms were highest. why you're seeing the nasdaq give more back, deeper pullback. i look back to see where you have to get the nasdaq 100 index to go back to pre-covid highs. the peak before we got that crash. still down 14% from here valuations, interestingly, are below the pre-covid peak you've kind of obviously

mike santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day.eta's plunge and ben emmons on today's late-day sell-off stocks are down about 500 points on the dow jones industrial average. nasdaq is lagging the major averages, it is down a little more than 2% mike, every dow stock is lower except for home depot. goldman sachs, visa and caterpillar are the biggest drags on the dow is this a setup ahead of cpi tomorrow >> it would seem a little bit of a loss of nerves ahead of cpi. the market has really been held in check and in been a very narrow range for almost two weeks and you've just broken below. what's interesting is trading at these levels right before this big friday rally before memorial day was one of the last trading days in may, the 27th. and that was sort of the area that was being protected the market seemed like it was being quite resilient given the fact you had the ongoingness of all the issues, with treasury yields inching higher. largely oil has been relentless even though it's backing off today. now you have the central bank s

the s&p is down more than 3% and mike santoli has a look at the market action for his dashboard. where do you begin, mike >> we begin with the depth of this 3% very similar to friday in a lot of respects, which is a sharp sell-off at the open you made the low for the day 3900 on friday, 3750 today you've been bumping along there. even though it's broad and comprehensive, it's not very heavy selling. believe it or not, volumes aren't that high we don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing now, this is a three-year chart of the s&p 500 you go down in price, you go back in time how far back are we going? basically to early january 2021, the first week of january of last year. that's the first time we got above 3800 on the s&p. now we're down more than 20% on the high we can get that out of the way we're down more than 20% other levels people are watching if we have to have another wave lower, really rationalize the valuations and price in some of the fed path, i think 3500 is late september of 2021 high and then 3400 the pre-pandemic high. still within sight but would be painfu

cnbc's senior markets commentator mike santoli live from the new york stock exchange cnbc pro calls it not too hot, not too gold just the goldilocks moment we need what does that mean? >> well, shep, it shows the underlying job market is very healthy. 390,000 net new jobs is absolutely quite strong, especially with unemployment already this low, but there was a little bit of slowdown in wage growth that was one element that a lot of investors were watching, the federal reserve is watching. which would imply at least kind of affirms the idea that perhaps inflation has peaked and wage growth at least might not be a driver of that, so that's why you get the sort of not too hot piece of an otherwise very strong jobs report >> these warnings and concerns from musk and dimon, what are they telling us? >> it's difficult to know what elon musk is saying about the overall economy. it's a relatively vague comment from him, but maybe it just means his company has been growing so fast, they might have overhired over the course of the last few years maybe it feels like they're not quite the right s

. >> mike santoli to you, the fed is signaling from current levels which we've doubled. we will double again, all officials projected rates rising to 3% by year end. is the market already pricing that in? >> largely, kelly, and i would say tentatively at this point because really, it's all about whether the bond market conveys the idea that the bond market is in tune with the new apparent pass of the fed because that's the premise for whether stocks can stabilize and we're down 10% in four days and the s&p 500 it's oversold and also on very slippery footing because of the instability in bonds -- two-way fed mistake risk is perceived out there, either overtightening because all they're really doing is trying to attack gasoline prices which they can't do they talked about fedex inflation expectations and that was the prod to go 75 this time. inflation expectations with the university of michigan sentiment survey is going after gasoline prices and they may not be able to effect. financial conditions have tightened a lot. jay powell in the press conference could choose to em

year and those dashed hopes of decelerating prices are having a big impact on market sentiment mike santoli looking at the dashboard today. so much for peak inflation. >> yes, sara s&p down 3.5% in the last 25 hours or so. so yesterday the market started to lean in the direction of maybe it was going to be an unfriendly cpi report. this is a retest of the lows three weeks ago. that was 3900 exactly. at a closing level intra day it was 3810 so that leaves you a couple of percent on the downside before you get to intraday lows. you had three days of really strong buying right in here. it never got up into the levels that would have said, fine, it might be more than a reflex relief rally within a downtrend. also the other thing to keep in mind for as relentless as it has been, it's a controlled demolition it's not been panicky with massive bursts of selling. it's been tightening of financial conditions, revaluing of stocks, repricing for a tighter outlook and maybe more growth risk. take a look at the treasury yield curve. 2-year yield has got above 3%. it's gone up well more today than the 10

have a great weekend that's mike santoli. "fast money" is now. >>> right now on fast, markets plunging to end the week closing back in on the lows of the year inflation at 40-year highs sentiment at record lows is there more pain ahead and how can you brace yourself for this volatility plus, the most important move in the market while one of our traders says the action in gold today could signal some big trouble ahead, and believe it or not, we were able to find just a couple of names that managed to eke out gains today. we'll tell you what they were and bring you those trades i'm frank holland in for melissa lee. this is "fast money. on the desk, tim, brian kelly, steve grasso and pete najarian we start with that deep sea of red on wall street the s&p plunging nearly 3%, closing back opinwithin a perceo bear market territory. amazon down more than 5.5% all manl major indexes within a whisper of their lows. the two-year treasury yield surging above the 3% mark since only back in 2008. the reason for all this turmoil, inflatio

mike santoli joining us with his last word. have a great weekend "fast money" begins now. >>> now on fast, a stern warn from cleveland fed where do we go from here we will ask the traders. >>> plus,apple's brutal spring down more than 15% in the last two months the chart master is in the house to take us into the numbers ahead of next week's big developer's conference later, amazon's 20 for 1 stock split set to take effect what will the move have on the options for the tech giants. i'm melissa lee in the heart of times square tim see more, courtney garcia, guy adami. and we start today with a stocks live to close out the week the dow shedding 300 points while the nasdaq dropped nearly 2.5% the losses pushing the major indices into the red for the week the economy adding 390,000 jobs in may, more than the 323,000 expected and that fuelled speculation the fed may have to be more aggressive with its rate hikes. cleveland fed president weighing in on the policy backdrop on cnbc today >> i don't see a hurricane, but we have to reali

i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. the s&p 500 down 1.4%. that's down about 1% of the week so it's hanging on to most of last week's 6.5% gain. the s&p 500 right around 4100. nasdaq the underperformer, apple, tesla, pretty big drags on the nasdaq today. it is a pretty broad-based pullback, though, with every sector but energy in the red right now for the day. you see the worst three, discretionally, communication services and tech. coming up, henry mcvey is cautious on this market but he will reveal where he does see buying opportunities plus the ceo of footlocker explains his plan for growth as nike moves to a direct-to-consumer strategy. >>> stocks falling on the back of the strong jobs report this morning. those results are confirming expectations of more rate hikes from the fed which were reinforced earlier by cleveland fed president loretta mester. >> i'm not in the camp who thinks that we stop in september. i do think we need to bring the funds rate up and we probably will have to go above that long run fed funds rate in the s&p to be

i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. the s&p 500 down 1.4%.of last week's 6.5% gain. the s&p 500 right around 4100. nasdaq the underperformer, apple, tesla, pretty big drags on the nasdaq today. it is a pretty broad-based pullback, though, with every

. >>> first to mike santoli on the markets today.d to yield, asset prices, how much of the work is getting done ahead of this? finance conditions have tightened faster from an easier level than we have seen in decades. we know that going into this meeting by relax, i mean we've seen the swings unsettled all of the markets. it has people thinking that, you know, if you get to 75 basis points on the fed today, maybe they give you clarity about the path immediately ahead you might think about feeling like we're not too far toward seeing the end the market says 2023 that's just the next hill. another piece of it feels like we're bundling all the known catalysts into a known week. obviously ecb and fed meetings, and massive -- and people have been matching that midyear it should be a cleaner market. in other words, you'll have more of a sense of real supply/demand next week. this bounce, you would say it's good that the market is not incrementally panicking, but it is just getting you above yesterday's high >> of course, you can't ignore

. >> mike santoli made a very good point on the overtime show that is that all these measures jp morgan is taking in terms of being conservative with its balance sheet seem to be preventive as opposed to predictive he's not saying it's the worst, but he did throw out that it could be a super storm sandy how do you take these comments they do seem scarier than a week ago. >> to your point, he did give a bad hurricane, not so bad hurricane. for him, he did temper it on his own. i'll go back to ceos are cheerleaders for their stock, but if they do the cheer leading at an extended pace with headwinds, they lose credibility. if you lose credibility, then you're not going to be one of the most revered voices in the financial community. that's what i think happened in a nutshell, you're seeing his stock bounce he talked about quantitative tightening quantitative tightening is going to double in september that's a massive headwind. i think he's worried about recession, as you know so am i. i think he wants to talk recently >> i think it is an about face i will say i think any time jamie diamond

mike santoli, we will see you tomorrow "fast money" begins now. >>> right now on fast, the market shrugging off a big warning from microsoft has wall street already been there done that >>> generon, the biotech giant announced a billion dollar deal to buy from a drug from sanofi >>> and 11% in the last week we will dive into the actions that may help to electrify this one. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, kim fighterman and dan na nathan setting unfavorable moves in the dollars is the reason for the change but here is what is interesting, we thought after initially dropping on the news shares of microsoft actually ended the day well in the green. and so did the rest of the market the nasdaq up 2.7%, with the s&p and dow following suit and this even after fed vice chair brainard suggested there was no reason to think the central bank would be less aggressive in its rate hike. so the question here, has the market priced in dollar volatility and peak inflation at this point bad news, good price action, tim. >> well,if you think about where we've come from -- again, i will cite 9.5% nasdaq up

. >> let's bring in our senior markets commentator mike santoli who's joining us now let's have you opine on this question. >> as to i -- i asked you in your last word in overtime on friday if we now have to reintroduce the idea of a fed surprise, and i think you said something to the idea of somewhat i mean, it certainly is maybe back in the conversation somewhere. what happens if the fed does 75 on wednesday is the market going to be -- feel better about that because they're finally getting the message? i mean, the bond market clearly wants more >> yes, i mean, i'm not sure it matters tremendously my initial take would be that the fact that they abandoned this kind of carefully cultivated idea that they can lead the market by the nose with their guidance to these increments and you know, doing it wednesday instead of doing it six weeks later, i don't think it matters i always go back to one thing that chair powell said a couple of press conferences ago when he was pressed on just exactly how much effect they think they're going to have with the actual rate increases in 2022 on inflation

. >>> we are now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments us morgan stanley chief u.s. equity strategist mike wilson and jeffires chief market strategist to the fed's three-quarters of a percent rate hike. stocks off the best level. the nasdaq still up nearly 3%. actually slipping below that 3% level. every sector positive on the s&p. consumer discretionary leading what stands out to you as far as fed reaction >> in general, sara, obviously the scene was set for the market to have some ability to show relief if, in fact, the bond market had already gone far enough in the very short term to price in what the fed was going to do. roughly got that as soon as you got a glimpse what the equity market wants, they don't want it to go dogmatic the idea powell said maybe 50, maybe 75 next meeting and, also, just the idea they're front loading, not really loading on more expected hikes. all of that was more or less in tune with where bonds were you never know what the initial reaction means you never know if it will actually have a rethink the next day

we have been warned by many, the likes of dan niles, about bear market rallies, as mike santoli was just saying to close that last hour, it's going to be hard to distinguish what's what, but we're going to try >> absolutely. something that a lot of folks are look at is valuations, of course you look at some of the most beaten down names, they're rebounding hard this morning look at amd and nvidia, the chip makers as well as paypal and affirm b of a did this screen that i thought was pretty helpful, looking at how far their valuations have come down on a price to earnings ratio. amd has gone from 50 times pe to 17 times even companies like affirm, where they don't have any earnings, this have gone from 27 times sales to 3 times sales so that's what a lot of folks are looking at this morning, though, we have heard a lot of people, maybe minus jim cramer, still pessimistic. he is finding some optimism, but as mike was saying, maybe you need the s&p at 4,000 as a minimum. >> still, 27 times on nvidia that's not exactly cheap i mean, by the standards - >> cheaper exactly. >> cheaper we're in

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broader markets now, as we come off a pretty ugly day on wall street we were meandering around, mike santoliee anything happen? >> i didn't. you know, we were down 2% yesterday. getting a lift is in the margin of error we're at month's end we're still sort of above last thursday's close that's been the big swings back and forth. treacherous footing but there's some look. june lowe's, 3636 by the way is the interday low right there still a little bit above that, but nothing has really happened to change that downtrend over the last week or so, we've been saying this rally has to get you above 4,000 before people start to believe. and that would be 400 on the etf to say this has been a bit more than just another reflection bounce again, this doesn't look terrible if it stands as it is right now. 385 was the may interday low so we're kind of chopping around, still plenty to be proven here. take a look at the really market shift for free cash flow versus growth tomorrow. 70%, 80%, actual tech not very profitable expensive. but great upstart type companies and the cash cows index, the highest in

things are changing quickly, mike santoli, back to you. >> budgets are getting squeezed.ar, steve >> i'm not pulling anything out to dissuade the fed from hiking interest rates, that's for sure. rick was absolutely correct to point out that unit labor cost fed chair jay powell likes that number it still the first quarter, but the fact that it was higher than originally put in there tells the problem is worse worth pointing out, though, we did have a strong fourth quarter productivity number. and this first quarter productivity number i don't think most economists are taking it as a crash in productivity in the united states. we had strange data when it came to gdp of course as well as with exports and inventory really dragging down the number, and that should come back in the second quarter on the jobless claims number, we're not seeing the weakness, i'm seeing high-frequency data out there maybe. the ukg stuff says maybe you'll get weakness tomorrow. hard to have a whole lot of weakness when you have clachls of 200,000 real quickly, i'll show what you's happening in the

let's get to mike santoli.s we've been getting recently. there's going to be a lot riding on, this and it's really kind of unclear how the market's going to react what would be good news? what would be bad? >> clearly moderation from last month's levels of inflation, mostly at the core level is what everyone is looking for. i'm not sure everybody is confident in it, which possibly explains yesterday's late-day selloff. we talk about this unusually tight range, less than 3%. that gave way yesterday. so you did kind of break below the lower end of it. it didn't really change the setup. really have to get to the 4200, 4300 level to prove itself more than just a bounce off those level. is this going to be some type of a reset, have we flinched enough in advance of the cpi number that there's the makings for relief once we get it energy and bond yields have kept up the pressure on stocks, so it's been unable to let the stock market get free of those concerns here you see the refiners, that shows you tight refining c

i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today. we got the fed decision yesterday. it was 75 basis points yesterday, stocks were up. this morning, you see the doboue back dow futures down 540 s&p futures duown 82 this comes after what we have seen the dow industrials up yesterday. nasdaq was up yesterday by 2.5%. joe just said the swiss national bank taking the steps this morning. that set the tone with the futures, mike. >> that was 3:00 when the decision came out. the sharp break in the equities future we saw in the last fed meeting the rally when jay powell discounted the 75 point rise this meeting we got the three quarters. it was as expected and flexibility. it did unwind the effects day. i think it is about the sense of the fed willing and now stating it might have to restrain the economy a bit to get inflation job done >> this morning, the idea of the swiss national bank which was not expected to raise, but raised 50 basis points it feels like 2008 and 2009. when you saw the global liquidity crunch with that and the ecb emer

i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli. david faber has the morning off. morgan brennan is on maternity leave. trying to sustain a 1% bounce here a busy morning with wholesale inventories. consumer confidence is up. rick santelli. >> sometimes the numbers aren't as fast as they used to be pre-covid. our jewel read, 98.7 we were expecting a number closer to 100, last look from 106.4, down to 103.2, but 97.7, the weakest since february 2021, it's a far cry from the all-time low of 95. the university of michigan sentiment is at an all-time 44-year low, and this is not and for richmond fed manufacturing for the month of june, this is a big miss expecting minus seven, but it's minus 19 minus 19 is the lowest level since may of 2020, so very, very early covid. not a good sign. by the way, i missed expectations on the conference board, because i didn't see it it just flew across the wires at 66.4, a huge drove from the revised 73.7 from may. carl, mike, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers

i'm karl with leslie picker and mike santoli a bit of a chop here this wednesday.ot of crosscurrents got powell and mestrom on. tape >> all before the holiday weekend. here are the three big movers we are watching today, starting with carnival. morgan stanley say it could potentially go to zero, that's the bear case, given the dead levels carnival also falling on that call plus mccormick under pressure as well, after missing estimates. inflation and supply chain pressures hitting sales for the quarter. bed back and be-- bed bath and beyond, with the ceo stepping down from his role immediately >> as we said, stocks pivoting around the flat line as the street attempts to regain its footing, cleveland's oop calling for -- >> if conditions were exactly the way they were today, going into that meeting, like if the meeting were today, i would be advocating 75, because i haven't seen the kind of numbers on the inflation side that i need to do in order to think we can go back to a 50 increase i think getting interest rates up to the 3% to 3.5% is really important we do tha

seeing oil back to 112 that's going to take you back to may 25th our senior markets commentator mike santoli the week asking the question, are things kind of getting so bad they could be good short term, tactically. the conclusion monday was, not yet. we're getting there pretty close. what we are talking about is how just rare extremes are showing up in the level, volume appeared breadth of the selling we have observed you can look at that in terms of a bare minimum number of stocks that are, let's say above their own 50-day average the number below the 200-day certainly has room to go down to extremes the options hedging we have seen has been somewhat extreme or getting there, but not necessarily where you necessarily want to see it i want to put this in context, too. when you get really oversold and surgeally people rob have been looking to liquidate urgently and shows you basically one side of the trade that helps in a bull market to know when to buy a dip you have a higher threshold of decide things are over now broader picture, i think you would be lucky if this was it. things have to b

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker and mike santoli. david faber has the morning off, and morgan brennan ison maternity leave. we got some relief in yields, got some relief in oil, but the vix is up a touch. >> certainly not a bright end to the quarter, end to the first half of the year, but we are only 30 minutes into the trading session. bitcoin dipping back below 20k, again on pace for its worst month ever you can see down more than 6% now, pfizer signing a $3.2 billion deal with the u.s. government for 150 million more doses of the covid-19 vaccine, and officially filing for full fda approval of its oral treatment paxlovid >>> and restoration hardwareis getting slam this morning. >>> president biden speaking earlier last hour in madrid. that's where we find our kayla tausche this morning with highlights from his remarks. >> reporter: good morning, carl, president biden fielding questions on thinks preferred venue, the world stage despite swirls disagreements, he faced blistering questions on the u.s. economy, how long american voter

carl >> as we mentioned, stocks selling up today as the markets await a so bad it's a good moment mike santolil, we're in that mode, down 20% from the high essentially entered lows from may 20th right now and maybe not that much confidence that they're going to hold the 3800 so bad it's good that's what you look for super washed out, oversold-type conditions i don't think we're quite there. i think you want to look for fewer stocks actually afraiding above whatever average you want. you want a much more intense flush lower. it's been a very orderly pullback i think that's one of the issues ceo, consumer and investment sentiment all bleak. over the 12-month period that's usually good because you revert back to something like normal. and it tends to be a sign that a lot of challenges are priced in. but that's not a timely indicator. usually you have to see the reverse higher for it to be relevant valuations in the sign of fair no longer a headwind the question is when you've had a bear market move like this, does it stop at bear does it have to get cheap? do you have to ride earnings estimates l

this is just a recurprecursor f tomorrow >>> let's get to the broader markets once again mike santoli in recent sessions, mike? >> joe, you saw this little blip that you mentioned this morning. but it's very well contained and a narrow range the s&p 500, really sideways, about a 2% range from high to low is what we've been dealing with hard to make much of any clues until we break one way or the other. it also is about where we were trading at the very end of april, early may over that period, since then, obviously, oil prices are a good deal higher. bond yields are somewhat higher. naturally, the market absorbed the big rash of retail earnings warnings it seems as if you could make the case that the value's working out okay or we're just waiting maybe for the next shocking number take a look at energy stocks compared to some other commodity-related stocks basically, they've disengaged. this is metals and mining. that's do y that's down from an april high it's becoming much more about oil, the tight supply. and that seems to be the main kind of relentless bid in this bid. take a look

mike, mike santoli, thanks andrew >> thank, joe. meantime a developing story this morning.ching gray scale now suing the sec after the regulator rejected a proposal to list a spot bitcoin etf. the sec believes their plans aren't robust enough to protect investors from possible fraud. for its part, gray scale is saying the sec is okay with etfs based on futures, it should be okay with those that hold actual bitcoin. >> we've worked to turn this into the largest bitcoin fund. it is invested in today by millions of americans in all 50 states so the fact that a u.s. regulator is shunning the opportunity to bring this further into the regulatory perimeter and give investors mortise closure, you know, more protections, this is an unbelievably missed opportunity on their part. >> lot of folks in crypto debating this. cnbc reached out to the sec on this issue, and the agency was not available to comment outside of working hours rejecting more than a dozen proposals now for spot bitcoin etfs over the past year. so gray scale not ahope. melissa? >>> coming up, a new look at the fed's

mike santoli joins us now. all right, we up a little yeste yesterday. today where are we in this cycle >> over the past two days, the s&p 500's regained pretty much to the penny what was roslost w. you'll see it kind of matches up to some degree with the february lows market is attempting to absorb this and leave those lows behind you know, in terms of the areas that would define whether this is just a little bit of a reflection reflex bounce or the start of something more it's the down s10%. all stocks in the world, aside from the united states, that's the acwx, those are both outperforming the standard s&p 500. if you go back farther than year-to-date, it's the opposite story. this is about pay back from the heavy skew that the s&p has toward the big mega cap companies that have been the biggest sources down side pressure take a look at the energy story as you can base it against crude oil and the equal-weighted it is tick for tick. feeding into the cash floews it's kind of come back together. nothing really has changed even though the rest of the mar

right now let's go to mike santoli.ances of a soft or hard economic landing after the remarks from fed chair powell, and it would be difficult to thread that needle it's jarring enough to hear a federal reserve head say, yeah, we have to do this it's going to potentially cause a recession, but it's more important that we do that than live with this inflation >> for sure. we have a fed acting as if it has a single mandate for this term, which is getting inflation under control. j. powell's been pretty consistent about this, saying soft landing is the aspirational goal, can't guarantee it after being oversold coming into the week, you have a few events coming toward month end that should give it a little bit of a lift and only prices and treasury yields coming in now whatyou have is a first step you need to get above last week's highs just about 3800 this is a process. this isn't a switch that goes on or off around 4,000 on the s&p 500 is where you'd want to see the market surpass that's what you'd be looking for. talking

mike santoli joins us.we're bouncing where we really should, at least in the short term why is that down almost 11% in two weeks. we've hit very rare extremes all that kind of thing means we should actually have relief. also last week we had a gauntlet to run with the fed meeting, ecb meeting and the big, big options last friday. this bounce doesn't look like a whole lot. captures the premarket stuff i would say you have to get up to 4,000 on the s&p, that's 400 on the spydr it's got to be broad, showing real money involved. get above some previous hurdles, maybe we call it around 4,000, and maybe event lipually after t you have a retest. take a look at stocks versus bonds. i've been pointing out the fact that whuen you've been losing money, it reduce everybody's risk budget. this is an approximation of the stock, 40% bonds, that's aor you see stocks, the total stock market index had badly pormd but bonds have stopped going down the last couple weeks we're coming into month end. there are asset allocation f

under 90 minutes to go cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is looking at what's driving thehis is a temporary relief rally or one that would last >> i would play it as it's temporary. we have a leg down, if we get into a full blown recession, depending on the severity, the market can work itself a lot lower. at least that's the way i position myself that if there is going to be more down draft, i'm ready for it as best i quarterback. >> that's because what you see in the economy >> look, if we get away from this white hot economy we have, to see supplies showing up, if we begin to see unemployment go from a shortage of people to an excess of people, these are all factors that will impact the stockmarket and i think there is another leg down, i don't know, whatever it is, 10, 15, sure they have great management and strong balance sheets and a great cash flow and you can weather it >> that's his take what are you seeing from what you have seen historically and what you are watching with the charts >> well, i this i in general, you do have to be in that mode this year each rall