opec was quick to come out and say this is entirely unfounded in a statement last night, opec secretaryategorically refutes these claims made within "the wall street journal o" story. opec officials suggest this suggests concerns or t trepidation. oil has been rising in the most significant moment in the middle east in recent memory. the finger of blame pointed toward countries like iraq and kazakhstan for kexample. the message from the the opec leadership is those countries need to step up and stop overproducing and toe the line and push prices higher from here carolin, that's the latest >> dan, thank you for that w we will with big into that story with our guest in a mibit. still a couple hours before the trading session. the s&p 500 is off 0.4%. similar declines for the dow jones and nasdaq the major acknoverages were hig. private payroll seeing 143,000 jobs added in the month of september. of course, all eyes on the big jobs report out of the u.s. tomorrow let's talk more about u.s. markets with alex morris at fm investments. thank you for staying up late or getting up early i don't

as i mentioned, all eyes on the opec december meeting, but how opec will continue to respond to what appears to be a deteriorating demand picture out of china. the question is will we see further downward revisions going forward not just for 2025, but beyond. the other question is how are opec policymakers going respond here? this is a group that is struck now between their own production cuts and maintaining market share. we saw those reports which the opec ministers, including his royal highness salman saying opec could consider letting go of what was called a price c target. now the pressure is on to see how they respond as we see oil prices continue to pull lower. the other fact is in the united states where supply continues to rise. if we saw that change after the election in november, it could have significant consequences on this market as well. >> yeah, i think u.s. is close to record oil production domestically. dan murphy, great to see you. tracking latest moves in the oil market. >>> more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors need to know today,

opec seeing growth since 2045. opec says your projections are quote dangerous for the industry.an you respond to that? on the other way, how can you trust the projections when they are so different? >> we update our numbers on a monthly basis. for the chinese demand growth, we have seen for last five months, chinese growth decline. we have seen data from the chinese official sources and chinese oil demand fell by 5 500,000 barrels a day year on year. the oil demand currently is less than -- it's more than 2 million barrels a day lower than it was in 2019 before the pandemic. we are seeing the structure changes impacting oil demand growth in china and in the oecd and other mature markets. of course, we continue to see growth in emerging and developing economies, but over the past decade, china accounted for more than 60% of global oil demand growth and with china now as the engine, the key engine of oil demand growth slowing and its economy changing gear, we are looking at which countries are taking up. of course, we see continued growth in india and brazil and other southeast as

you saw the formal rejection today by opec. where there is smoke, there's fire. there is a problem with iraq especially. 3 to 4 thousand barrels a today above the production quota level. they've been trying cajoling for months. it may not have worked. i heard maybe the meeting went a little better. i think the iraqis of -- all eyes are on october 14th, when opec will report what secondary sources, what they say iraq was. i still think there's a discussion there. i don't think this was as negative as implied by the tone, but yet the jury is out. we'll see on october 14th, about you if iraq is not in compliance, if kazakhstan is still overproducing, i think there will be consequences. >> bob, on that issue, could they turn to the saudis to support the market, lower the price, could they do anything with iraq and kazakhstan to say they're the flies in the ointment, leading to lower output? >> i'm sure there's a standing request from the biden administration, harris campaign, please don't do mission to raise oil prices. i think the biden administration is trying to f

ithink largely, opec, over the last _ think? ithink largely, opec, over the last six _ think?st six weeks - over the last six weeks regardless of this developer, has been a bit of a spectator because other non— opec players have stemmed the breach. now i think opec is making the market aware that the saudis in particular and opec in general has room for spare capacity so if tensions flare up in iran, they could step in but right now, what we've seen and the evidence over the last couple of years that opec has desperately tried to support prices rather than come to the rescue of the consumer. we will be watching _ rescue of the consumer. we will be watching closely _ rescue of the consumer. we will be watching closely regardless. | be watching closely regardless. thank you for your time this morning and analysis. to tech now, and openai, the maker of the ground—breaking chatgpt, has just become one of the most valuable start—ups in the world. openai has raised some $6.6 billion, in funding as investors bet big on the market—leading artificial intelligence developer as major bac

what do you see opec doing then? >> this is very interesting because going back to, for instance, russia-ukraine incident, opec has always been very cautious regarding its decisions, it statements that the opec members have been issuing, and what is very important is that opec does not react to market sentiments, they do not intensify those sentiments, rather decide based on actual fundamentals of the markets. so if there is actual changes in the markets of fundamentals in the case of geopolitical risk, if there is a shortage of supply, definitely we could expect that opec would have decisions to be made, but just because of market sentiments or media headlines or how markets are worried or the psychology of the market, this is not something that has been pushing opec to come into making decisions for markets. haslinda: like we said, there is still so much uncertainty, but could you just look into the crystal ball. if you were to hazard a guess, where do you see oil prices by year end? >> this is a very interesting q

the problem for opec, it's very difficult for them. so there is a big knock-on effect within opec to any attack on iranian oil, refinery, infrastructure that could come from this by the israelis in response. >>> in terms of the export markets as jeff currie just said, the market is looking at next year. we still have 5.6 million barrels a day of idle opec on the sidelines. saudi arabia wants to bring as much of its oil back as possible. any disruption to iranian supplies to the international market could probably be made up by opec's spare capacity and its idle oil at the moment. >> that makes a lot of sense given the amount of spare capacity when it comes to tmid the middle east there. he warns of a 50% increase in oil. obviously this is a very much veiled threat. we're going to start a price royer if you don't stick to the rules. are we going back to 2014? >> we could be. the data speaks to itself that saudi has been squeezed in its core markets and by russia. that russian crew that was displaced, that's flowed into asia, china, indi

the next meeting of the opec plus ministerial monitoring committee has just taken place. what are its results? as usual, several issues were considered at the monitoring of the ministerial committee. the first is the implementation of the agreement concluded within the framework of opec plus for august and september. a high, high level of implementation of the agreement, the commitments made by countries on voluntary reduction, according to the quotas that were adopted. are being implemented, we discussed the current situation on world markets, forecasts for economic development in the world, the increase in consumption this year. will amount to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day of oil in general around the world, we looked at the forecasts for the following low months for the year, in general we agreed that we will hold the next monitoring committee and ministerial meeting on december 1, so today we have decisions that have been adopted, they are being implemented, and we adhere to previously adopted decisions, yes do i understand correctly that all these decisio

sovorova told about the meeting of the opec plus monitoring committee. thank you, sasha. advertisement, then we will continue, stay with us. every friday in october, palfa friday in yandex food. get 50% cashback on any dishes in yandex food with alfa-bank cards. and if you don’t have a card, order a free alfa-card. get supercake, we still have unlimited social networks, messengers, calls to izberpm, all for 349 rubles. speirmobile, listen, something is knocking? it's time to change the rag, get a car, go to drom, drom, drom, you've never dreamed of it. how many thousands of professionals create the best products and technologies to protect your funds so that you can use them anywhere in the country. tebank, there's only one. ceresit grout, a wide range of colors, reliable protection from moisture and mold. the ideal solution for any tile. adhesive from ciresin grout. every 15 minutes, wherever you are, whatever you do. whatever you strive for, every 15 minutes the game is hunting, your chance to change everything, the main trophy from 340 million. hunting, test your insti

let's bring an opec, an opec plus, because some of the members of bricks all the members of opec as well. and opec plus this is the oil cods. how old the world piece of what does that mean for g 7 countries and the rest of them who are not within this blog when you consider the the brick skies and now essentially also the opec guys i will continue. i mean, man is waiting for example, they want to get in on breaks down the road as well. saudi arabia's got a complicated relationship with bricks at the moment stuff, but have a complicated relationship. it has a complicated relationship with the, with united united states that really, exactly cos i be that the, when they said they going to join a break state golf on the huge pressure from the west. yes. and they have invested an incredible amount of money and you with some great britain and they don't want to lose it. yeah, of course. and since we know how the collective west behaves, that's a real danger. i think that is one of the big issues that break 3 wants. yeah. you know the radio in because breaks currently controls uh on the top of

he energy players in from opec will opec plus are also bricks members? sure. more opec members want to join bricks. does that mean? does that? that's pretty serious. that is, and they have that's because we don't have much control from the us now. the picture, dolo, yeah, uh, does not give them the freedom of and the kind of things that they had to undergo neil big country is a little bit less countries. right. i think they're looking for freedom in a way. yeah. a lot of the of, of choice. yeah. i'll freedom of action. and the example, it's so interesting that you know, if you talk about, you know, the number of members of briggs who also members of opec and more members of opec are looking to join briggs. sure, that means that the global energy markets remain in the hands of the bricks. finally, got this is history in the making. this is huge news right here to it really, really is. and then we have the bricks development bank as well. is it a competitor to the i m s, and world bank, or do you think they can co exist? well, it wouldn't be a company does right

opec is supposed to meet in person on october 1st. we'll see. they've moved some meetings.hink the world's energy journalists are hoping that meeting happens in person. just quickly, macro, china. where is this going? demographic clip, xi jinping probably president for life. almost self-named, you know what i'm talking about with the communist party. where does china end up? will the stimulus work? will this reinvigorate an economy that's just tried to real estate? >> the stimulus is not going to work for more than a couple of quarters. there's also this stuff about if we spend enough money, magic will happen. it doesn't work that way. you can get better quarters, you can have a better fourth quarter than a third quarter. so if you're looking at can stimulus improv the economy for a couple of quarters, they can it could. we haven't seen what the stimulus is yet, but in the longer term, it's what you said. demographic is going to kill them. they are limited from a lot of debt. they rap up a lot of debt with their stimulus program in 2009. so the trend in the short term is ha

listen, opec is a big group, opec+ an even bigger group.clear that there are likely members inside of opec that are sort of talking to various parts of the media, maybe myself included, who knows, and basically saying here is what we think is going to happen. this is a group, they are aligned in many ways, but they are also sovereign nations, as you know, looking out for their own sovereign nation best interest. how do we read this? i think we read this as -- and i want to clear up something that has been wrong in certain parts of the media for a couple weeks now. there is no saudi arabian or opec price target. there is no official opec or saudi price target. i want to clear that up. there's been a lot of talk about defending higher prices, but i think this is a clear sign that some in the group maybe are not happy with their quotas, that they are sort of being allowed, i'm using air quotes, to pump out. so says my fax, anyway. >> got it, all right. keep us abreast of all things, including whatever faxes you're getting over there, brian. th

we're a net exporter we broke opec.h of the crude system in the permian basin where chevron has a huge presence and growing one, that basin was supposed to be tapped out so many times, just keeps coming and coming. however, the wells are indeed short lived. this will still be pumping, this what we see here, maybe i don't know, 20, 30 years from now. the death of opec has changed the whole geopolitical map 1973 when israel was attacked by egypt and syria our government backed israel and opec went ballistic. they held back oil production so the price soared next thing you know we had stagflation, a horrendous stock market and a terrible recession. this time israel's at war, arguably multiple wars, but there's no stagflation or recession and we've got a ripsnorting bull market. why? let's just say you're looking at it this much maligned industry, this industry that's spent billions upon billions of dollars to try to be as low carbon as possible, including this gigantic floating production unit, is the reason why oil prices

opec+ is strong and they can take a significant stability action.ability action. some flexibility to - stability action. some flexibility to move, i stability action. some . flexibility to move, thank stability action. some - flexibility to move, thank you very much for your thoughts. now to japan where the new government of shigeru ishiba faces economic challenges such as ageing and shrinking population. the value of its currency has been in the spotlight this year, and when the yen weakened sharply, the costs of imported food and fuel went up — prompting the authorities tojump in. the process involved the central bank pumping 25 trillion yen into the currencies market to shore up the yen. that's a whopping $173 billion. japan now finds itself on the us treasury's watchlist of potential currency manipulators. mariko oi spoke to the man who managed japan's currency war chest. who defended the move. translation: it's the opposite of manipulation. _ translation: it's the opposite of manipulation. we _ translation: it's the opposite of manipulation. we

news here, opec is scheduled a meeting tomorrow. they were expected during that meeting to increase output which would bring the price down. we shall see. we've got a stunning move in us defense stocks. look at this lockheed martin which makes the f-16 and f-35 stealth fighter jets hitting an all-time high earlier up about 2.6%. northrop grumman supplies weapons and military technology it too is at a record along with rfx, ubs upping the praise targets by the way on both as well. no surprise here we've got gold considered sort of the ultimate flight to safety. it is gaining about 1% or 25 bucks. earlier it was up about 30 bucks so it stands at $2,684 a troy ounce that is very close to a record. with this story developing, and truly affecting our markets we are lucky to have one of wall street's finest, bob doll, ceo of cross mark global investments. bob we know that in many cases like this , these are short sell-offs, already we're seeing markets at least trying to come back. how important is it to watch these events but also make m

>> yeah, i think the key to that is the responsibility that opec has on the sidelines.inted at it in your lead-in. mbs kmected crude call could fall to the 50s if they go after market share as opposed to supporting price. what that means is they bring back a million plus barrels to the sideline and they allow it to increase production. the spare capacity they have is over 4 million barrels a day. it would take a significant supply production for opec not at to be able to fill that gap. so the market looks at this event that's happened with iran and israel and says there is a bigger chance we have a supply disruption, but we're not as afraid of ta tail event because we know there's a lot of crude sitting on the sidelines. and secondly we know right now mbs and saudi arabia are very frustrated with their other opec plus members for not complying to the production cuts over the past essentially years and are more willing to potentially release that supply back to the market if we do get a price spike than they have in the past. so we think that's the setup as to why crude

there are a lot of reports of 6 million barrels of spare capacity with opec plus. lot of people looking if this attack would happen, but if you are an investor, how does it impact the price if there was an escalation? >> the real capacity is sitting in saudi arabia. the question is would saudi arabia be called on by the white house to immediately surge production. obviously, that would be an important call that the biden administration would put to riyadh. the question is would saudi arabia and the rest of opec essentially say first, we like to see the extent of the outage, they do not want to get caught in the cross-fire of the conflict. if there is a big back and forth, especially with the israeli air strike flying over the countries, what would the iranian response be? i think from the standpoint of the major producers, they want to hold the conflict at an arms length. >> i want to ask about just this situation and the geopolitics. ed yardeni is assigning a 20% probability to a 1970s style trigger hard landing if iran hits the nuclear facilities in the next few

there is an expectation as i hinted that opec-plus could come in and add more to the market but if they do not, you will see oil prices continuing to rise and stay steady at the $90 level according to analyst reports that have come out. there is also a view that may be nothing happens at all and iran -- israel does not attack any of the iranian oil infrastructure. it is not in their best interest if oil prices rise. they import oil. if there is no immediate attack on the infrastructure, then i think you will quickly see oil prices deflate back down to the $70 brent level. the reason being that the fundamentals are bearish in the market. besides this more risk, there is an oversupply. they are trolling quite strong despite the price level and opec-plus is adding more barrels to the market at the end of the year. on top of that, u.s. demand is not as resilient as some thought. the u.s. economy not as strong as some were expecting and china has also not been as strong as what traders were expecting this time of year. all of that together, those are the scenarios the traders are watching ou

opec-plus revised downwards their demands and they tend to be more optimistic, they tend to overshot-a-vis other think tanks but they've revised down for the third month they now see the demand growth totaling millions of bitter rules to give you context. other think takes are saying much higher than what the market is penciling in. a mismatch between supply and demand. barrels back in the market in the fourth quarter and further sanctions so if those come to pass they could exert pressure. we talk about tension that could emanate. still some potential for disruptions but what we are seeing is fundamentals continue to weigh. tom: indeed. we will watch for detail and indeed whether they are implemented indeed. joumanna our anchor. german carmakers getting left in the dust by chinese ev makers in their most lucrative market. the challenges next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we need to find a deal with china. on the one side you compete, you go up but it as they did with us 25 use ago. tom: look at a mayo speaking to all of the crook. demand picks up, all of the crook joins us now he's been

>> i think it's a great question, but before we even go on to opec, it is worth talking about non-opecglad you asked that. we got a note coming out today on this topic. we have seen it under performance something the media is not talking about. guess where we are today? just 300,000 barrels per day. brazil and the u.s. are the two biggest down side risk. this year, starting at the year, oil prices weren't even low. this is not even a price issue. in the u.s. in particular, i just got back. we are running out of tier i acreage. >> amrita sen with the oil outlook. thank you very much. see you soon. >>> coming up on the show, a case of the haves and have-nots in the restaurant sector. weil wl look at the value deals and the meteoric run is fresh or about to go steale. we'll be right back. (♪♪) ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪ ♪ yeah, they made me who i am ♪ ♪ so i'm off to see... ♪ we invent them. we design them. we build them. and one day, we have to let them soar. ♪ i'm always coming home ♪ tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need the

iran is an opec oil producer. any strike on its refineries, terminals, or storage facilities could cause a supply surge or supply disruption. that's what we're looking for right now. >> brent crude above 75. we're also getting new comments from opec talking about oil falling down about 50 byucks a barrel. talk about that as well. >> that's right. they're monitoring the situation in the middle easting but behind the scenes, frank, i can tell you there's also some confusion about why oil is still giving us a 70 usd handle. of course, typically through periods of escalating tensions in the middle easting we would see oil prices spiking. we haven't necessarily seen that this time around. now the saudi energy minister has been out backgrounding reporters h he's been calling out members for your overproducing. "the wall street journal" reporting prices could drop to 50 u.s. dollars a barrel if we don't see those producers reining it in. yes, we're seeing prices stay a bit here. the question is mid- to longer term, will

opec-plus, how much pullback will they do?ed supplies from non-opec countries putting a market which is well surprised -- supplied to the end of 2025, producing as much as we can with a low break even and only one refinery, solesky affected by the margin and more exposed to commodity prices. tom: what -- what -- yeah, what range are you looking at? what -- what assumptions are you making as we get to -- the end of 2024? anders: last month is the range going forward but it is difficult to predict. we have a conflict with israel which has the potential to increase the prices if oil infrastructure is damaged in the conflict so setting the price is difficult. volatility and uncertainty in the market. tom: talk to us about the investment in war stead, 10% stake in -- in the windfarm generator manager. is that strategic? where is it a tactical move to meet -- meet those targets? anders: it is part of our investment. we have a good portfolio, this is something we do investing in a good company in an industry we know well, it is premi

. >> a key focus of the book when i was writing it, i used to write about opec so very familiar with a lot of the machinations there. one chapter in the book specifically looks at bolivia which has the world's largest lithium resource which is different, chile has the largest reserve. i don't want to put you to sleep by explain the difference between the two but bolivia has a lot of lithium. they want to make a lithium opec and use this lithium as a way to bolster not only its international prowess but it's role in the ev transition. a lot more capital production. part of a battery that lithium goes inside of and they want more electric vehicle manufacturing. the united states doesn't make any cathodes right now so having them made in bolivia is perhaps a step too far for right now but these are the goals countries are aspiring towards. there has been a huge awakening to the power of resource nationalism, to know that if they are able to use the metals and minerals under their feet as economic tools, they can increase their economic prowess on the world stage. i would say yes, it's g

meanwhile, the oil cartel opec has further cut its forecast for global oil demand for the rest of this25. ashley kelty is research analyst for resources at panmure liberum. he told us oil demand is facing a number of challenges. the big other problem that we have is that we have opec unwinding their quota reductions from december, and that's going to add a lot more barrels into the market. they are claiming that it's only going to have a minimal impact. that's i don't think the case because the likes of iraq and algeria and so forth have, and kazakhstan, have been overproducing above their quotas. and i think that that is going to continue in the near term. the one thing that is supporting prices is the uncertainty in the middle east. the market is waiting for a response to the iranian rocket attack at the start of the month, and there are concerns that israel will target iranian energy infrastructure. we don't think that that is going to be the case. i think the us will put a lot of pressure on them not to do so, mainly because the actual price at the pumps is a key trigger point for

opec-plus is curtailing production, so they've got a lot of supply that could come back on.an emergency, opec+ could rush some supplies back to market to replace that iranian crude. from what we are hearing, iran is trying to avoid that situation. tom: at the need apollo, middle east markets -- anthony dipaolo, middle east markets and energy reporter, thank you so much. high stakes for the region and oil markets. germany is reportedly planning to vote against eu tariffs on chinese electric vehicles later today. reuters quotes vw as a saying they are the wrong approach. our asia transport reporter joins us from hong kong. it is pretty fascinating the splits that this whole debate is having and causing within the eu. how do we expect other eu members to vote? where does france line up if germany as opposed -- is opposed? >> from the reports we are seeing, france is expected to vote in favor of this proposal, as our greece, italy and poland. now, together, these four countries represent about 39% of the population of the eu. now, this means that if these member states vote in f

because of course, it would upset israel's international partners and even if that were to happen, opecroup, has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for full loss of iranian supply. the impact on oil supply would only emerge if iran, for example, retaliates by hitting its golf neighbours. experts don't think that scenario is likely at this point. oil prices are still well below where they were, for example, just after russia invaded ukraine when we saw that brent crude oil prices rise above 110.— that brent crude oil prices rise above 110. good to talk to ou and rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep _ rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across _ rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across that - rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across that for l you and keep across that for us. we will be back with you later. the images you are looking out on the screen, just to remind you if you are joining us on bbc news, this is the first of a number of memorials and commemorations and ceremonies that will take place throughout the day. this first one marking o

opec are not producing to theirfull organisations...not producing to their full extent, if they were too, they could potentially make up for the shortfall but that takes time to put through.— shortfall but that takes time to put through. how long would that shortfall _ to put through. how long would that shortfall all— to put through. how long would that shortfall all that _ that shortfall all that capacity last for? that shortfall all that caaci lastfor? ., capacity last for? that could be a matter— capacity last for? that could be a matter of _ capacity last for? that could be a matter of a _ capacity last for? that could be a matter of a week - capacity last for? that could be a matter of a week or. be a matter of a week or several weeks, be a matter of a week or severalweeks, but be a matter of a week or several weeks, but i guess one of the bigger concerns is the geographical location of iran right next to the strait of hormuz. it is the world's most important choke point in terms of transit of oil, so notjust iran's oilfacilities

if opec does that, you will get the market in excess supply. you get a knee-jerk reaction.hard to see that the absence of one million barrels a day from global demand puts oil prices to 100 when the oil remarket is in excess of supply. haslinda: you see less than a chance to get that 100 if we get an escalation? jahangir: it is a terrible thing to ask economists about oil prices, asset prices, we are terrible at predicting these things. you can get oil prices to 100 but it is hard to see that sustaining beyond a few days, because the market is in excess of supply. haslinda: another risk for economies is the u.s. election, and the promise of additional tariffs. that will have ripple effects. jahangir: that is the critical risk at this time. if we do get an escalation of tariffs on china, the numbers floated around by president trump range from 50%-tuna percent, so let's take a number repeated on and off, 60% tariff. currently it is around 20%. if you raise from 20% to 60%, then the implied dollar is almost 30% appreciation. right now with all the stimulus and what is happene

opec on its official page on the social network x categorically denied the earlier statement of the wall street journal, which , citing the saudi arabian energy minister, reported a drop in oil prices to... there is a growing demand in society for a resolution of global tensions, but western politicians have become disconnected from the opinion of the people, according to american journalist danny haiphong. instead, political hawks. we are in a state of balancing. people, whom we should not trust or allow to have such power, are doing exactly that. they are weighing whether a world war is worth starting? they are constantly provoking russia to see how close we can come to a nuclear war without actually starting one. strikes deep into russia with their own missiles, what is wrong with this story and what response moscow is preparing, the french crisis is spreading to all of europe and is interfering with london's plans, about this and more in the full edition of the program on the belteleropania website and youtube channel. iraq celebrates independence day today, our president congratulat

analysts say that opec plus has free capacity to replace even the complete loss of iranian production, the russian stock market continues to ignore expensive oil and slide down. ruble the central bank raised the official dollar exchange rate above 94 for the first time in 5 months; today the dollar exchange rate is 94.51, the euro 1045. bloggers valeria chikalina and her ex-husband artem chikalin were detained on suspicion of illegally transferring more than 250 abroad . today, residents of germany celebrate another anniversary of the country's unification. 34 years ago , two states, the frg and the gdr, became one. but decades later, east and west germans remain divided, culturally, economically and politically, and the government is doing nothing to bridge this gap. and today, a large-scale demonstration of opponents of the traffic light coalition that governs the country is planned in berlin. sergey khlashevsky will continue. good evening, ladies and gentlemen, the german people have once again found a sovereign, free and united state. after the second world war, the divided german

going to have a dramatic effect on consumers maybe more so than shutting a couple wells or asking opecknow from your work in my state there is a price point at which shale can't compete with opec nations and so when we look at it putting our supply in making sure we can refine our oil here in this country, when people talk about oil or energy security guess what? we can't just focus on what's happening at the wellhead. we have to focus on whether we're producing enough gasoline and product to be keep our economy going. >> well said there, well said about the well ahead senator, great -- see what i did there, great state of north dakota, yeah, that plane, i think the wings were like -- as we took off. all the oil workers and me thank you. >>> on deck, while our american stock markets keep rocking some other countries may be ready or already are rocking more wl owouhe, xt you know coach prime, it's nice to finally have some free time. uh huh! gives you a chance to reflect on the important things. aflac! like how aflac pays people money for the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. afl

opec cut the demand forecast for 2024 and 2025.ing back from its escalation in proposing of striking some of the oil and nuclear facilities. how does it benefit gold? over the past few weeks we have seen little reaction in the gold market with any kind of escalation. and now with inflation pressures relieved, the fed can focus on the fragile labor market and take a dovish stand. the dollar will weaken and 54% inverse correlation to the dollar, gold futures benefit. so where the rotation takes place is that money managers, they've cut their bullish bets on the gold market and the lowest level in eight weeks and chased inflation and they chased crude oil prices higher. now, that crude oil prices are coming off and the fed looks like they're going to shift more dovish, they want to rotate back into those asset classes. so if you look today, you have the russell 2000pushing up, up about 1%. bonds up other a handle and gold futures marching higher. the cme's fed watch tool shifting 90% the fed will cut 25 bases points in november. we th

opec was undecided over increasing production.is a moment where investors are trying to get a sense of how are the actual supply disruptions going to unfold in the coming weeks and months. right now the market was pretty content that this inflation and that trend was going to remain and now they are scratching their heads to see will this be a big shock to inflation. in addition to this oil surge we have a dock worker strike which could also put some pressure. some investors are becoming a little bit more cautious. we could see inflation somewhat return a bit of the next three to six months. we return a bit of the next three to six months.— return a bit of the next three to six months. we saw yesterday a rush to save — to six months. we saw yesterday a rush to save paving _ to six months. we saw yesterday a rush to save paving assets - a rush to save paving assets like us government bonds and gold off the back of those tensions. what you make of that? i tensions. what you make of that? 4' ., that? i think right now when ou take th

comparisons to what we saw the start of the ukraine conflict when the us production at record highs and opec. markets have been very content that this disinflation trend would remain intact but now they are scratching their heads to see how the events may indeed unfold. mil to see how the events may indeed unfold.— to see how the events may indeed unfold. all eyes are on that right _ indeed unfold. all eyes are on that right now. _ indeed unfold. all eyes are on that right now. perhaps - that right now. perhaps overshadowing some better data for the us economy and it's interesting, head of an election next month in the united states not a good time for the port shutdown we touched on but also possible inflationary pressures. there is some good news in the us economy right now though isn't there? , , ., economy right now though isn't there? , i. ., there? yes. if you look at the rivate there? yes. if you look at the private hiring _ there? yes. if you look at the private hiring data, _ there? yes. if you look at the private hiring data, that - there? yes. if you look at the i private hiring d

a lot of it depends on what's coming out of opec headlines.ts. maybe you get a day or two of some volatility around energy names, but then it seems to flatten out again. you are right, there seems to be this disconnect that is coming. but if we want to look at companies and focus on balance sheets, energy companies are doing well in that sense. they have that strong cash flow, those balance sheets and cash ratios look good there. so i think you can have some exposure. i am sitting here in houston, i don't want to say ignore the energy companies. put some exposure there, but there is quite a bit of volatility. we don't know what is going to happen on the geopolitical front. that could give more volatility than what we have seen as of late. so maybe be a little cautious there. i think over the long term these are names you want to have why your -- in your portfolio. jonathan: they won't let you outside. good to see you, victoria. the banks on the s&p 500 on the week last week up by almost 5%. the best week of the year. biggest weekly gain for th

some of that can be filled by saudi and broader opec capacity, it's something that's a more immediate issue for markets. >> what do i do with the fact that yields are up? i'm not sure people had gamed out that okay, the fed is going to cut by 50 and they're going to continue to cut and yields today are going to be higher than they were before the fed cut. >> listen, in both cases at least certainly in the short end, the issue right now is that some of those additional cuts that the market overpriced are coming out. you had brian belski on the halftime show and any number of people have made this observation as well. the market was way ahead of itself, way ahead of itself in terms of pricing the number of cuts that was likely to come. not because the fed wasn't signaling that. in some cases they were. just the broader strength in the economy. everybody has been waiting for that to wane and consistently, we have not seen it wane, and in fact, obviously, the most recent jobs report bore out the idea that the economy is doing fine. yields are going back up as a result of that, but i would

you also do have an opec meeting tomorrow.onth of september, they had a net decrease of 480,000 barrels per day and without libya, they have still been curving that production down 120,000. it appears that many of these different opec countries are looking to push crude oil prices back up and they'll do whatever it tabs. >> and one quick question to end on right now. oil leads us to energy stocks as a matter of course. do you think some are positioned better than others? >> we like your producers and refiners in the transport section. there are different names that could gain exposure thing like exxonmobil one that stands out and marathon petroleum are two we really like. >> all right, phil, the trade on oil given everything that's going on today. thank you. we'll see you soon, kelly. >>> "power lunch" will be right back after the break. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're lo

rate last the increase, the inflation rate last year was from one college the skyrocket in prices of opec oil. we must take whatever actions are necessary to reduce our dependance on foreign oil and at the same time reduce inflation as individuals, as families. few of us can produce energy by ourselves, but all of us can conserve energy. everyone, us every day of our lives. tonight i call you. in fact, all the people of america. to help our nation conserve energy, eliminate waste, make 1980 and lead a year of energy conservation. of course, we take other actions to strengthen our nation economy. first, we will continue to reduce the deficit and then to balance the federal budget. second, as we continue to work with business, to hold down prices, we will build also on the historic national accord with organized labor to restrain pay increases and a fair fight against inflation. third, we will continue our successful efforts to cut paperwork and to dismantle unnecessary tory government regulation. fourth, we will continue our progress in providing jobs for america, concentrating on a major

cooperates in the expanded format of opec plus. can see, the market in recent days, since the 2nd day, has reacted quite sharply, by several percent, the price of oil has grown. in general, this is not the fluctuation that could, since the conflict in the middle east, it has already been partially priced in. therefore , naturally, such geopolitical factors, they influence, the market, reacts primarily to the fact that the supply on the market may decrease as a result of the conflict or military action. the western media are already actively discussing specific iranian oil facilities that may cease to exist overnight. one of the possible targets of israel's retaliatory strike is kharg island, where iran's oil terminal is located, through which oil flows more than 90% of iranian oil exports. that's 2-3% of global oil supply, which doesn't sound like much, but if it were to be attacked, it would completely change the global energy market. we could see oil above $100 a barrel. located in the persian gulf 25 km off the coast of iran, th

firstly, it is the third largest oil producer in opec, and secondly, it is located near the strait of, through which about 20% of all oil consumed in the world passes, and the market is now assessing what steps iran itself might take, and also how israel will respond to a missile attack on its territory, since it could strike, for example, at iran's oil infrastructure. the russian stock market is currently trading in the plus, of course, oil is helping. the official dollar exchange rate today has risen again to 9336, but the official euro exchange rate has fallen below 104. an it company with russian roots has fired almost all of its russian developers. the message about this began to fill the russian internet the day before, growing with details that it happened literally in an hour. the process was described as follows: almost all employees in the offices in cyprus, hungary and serbia, where abby had recently been actively moving personnel from russia, received messages about a call with top management, where they were told that their positions had been cut and they had been disconn

listen to opec meetings and one thing that the pistol me off was the human tragedy. he would show up with his wife and she had like $3000 shoes on. i'm thinking -- i'm a ds w shoe warehouse man myself. it was like people are eating trash in your nation and here you are showing up not only with your wife in the shoes and shopping bags. >> how do we solve the maduro. >> we basically ask the venezuelan people to get out and vote. they voted in overwhelming numbers even in the hardest barrios. the fact that we asked brazil, mexico and colombia to step back and frankly they didn't i think there should be another contact group. i think we should not take our eyes off of venezuela. it is a humanitarian issue and potentially border issue. and if we are not willing to stand by democratic results in our own hemisphere, what does that signal. brian: anything you want to say in close that i might've missed? sen. warner: another senate filibuster. think the atlantic council. about those five regions. i hope we get a chance to continue this. >> i went to thank you for being here t

you know, so many members of bricks are also members of opec. no big plus. that means energy is, is basically in that hands. we've talked about them developing a grain exchange, come our commodities exchange, which will no longer be present price price. in the western countries, they bought the shipping lanes. they bought the geostrategic ports, bricks can feed and fuel the world. saskia. i mean it has been quite practically been witnessing history here. i think from the beautiful city because i, which of course stands out the crosswords between asia and europe. but it is a culture one to trade hub it is mode, see religious, multi ethnic. and so it symbolized, i think the spirit of bread. yeah. perhaps a more modern day. constantinople right here in the diverse russian city of cars on well from a real research i assess, gets out of that. it's been an absolute pleasure of having you with us for historic events here live on archie. i'm the only thing i will ask is you see, laurie and me, we see about 5 cameraman and behind the camera. but in the start, you've

oil prices fell by over 2% on monday after opec downgraded its demand forecast for 2024 and 2025. third straight time the oil body has slashed its outlook as tensions in the middle east and china economic slowdown weigh on the market. industry expert vandana hari explained what's behind the downgrade, as demand from china, the world's largest crude importer, continues to lag. pessimism over chinese economic growth and oil demand growth has been the story pretty much since the middle of this year, but of late, the market has been more convinced chinese, after seeing the stimulus measures which were underwhelming, unveiled by beijing, the market has been more convinced that the problem with chinese economic growth is quite structural and what that means for the oil market is that oil demand growth in china will continue remaining sluggish. we have the first nine months of import data, crude import data, from china in hand, which shows a 4% year—on—year drop, quite remarkable for china and actual contraction on an annual basis in terms of its crude imports. that is a major factor. yo

you need to rein in production, so the politics of opec and the politics between the middle east andre is an unappreciated risk that we go nowhere from demanding 2025. annmarie: a few analysts poured cold water on a report, do you think the princes preparing to start owning market shares and ignoring the price of crude? javier: i don't think the saudi's would like to launch a price war because they know the consequences of that will be much lower prices. prices that could derail. let's not forget that if saudi arabia was to go ahead with something that looks like a full price war of going into production capacity, which is 12.5 million barrels a day compared to the current amount, prices will go lower because a lot of traders will see that through what we know, and the last price based on recent memory in 2020, let's not forget that it went to wti, and that is what we need to recall. i don't think the saudi's would like a price war, but they are making sure they are prepared to take steps to try to bring countries like iraq, russia, and you i.e. into line to comply with production li

accordingly, he noted, opec plus countries are only temporarily losing market share, producing under reduced quotas. the deputy prime minister emphasized that china remains the most important center of hydrocarbon consumption, despite... that it is actively developing green energy. the united states has sharply reduced the export of liquefied natural gas to europe. the indicators had already been declining for several months in a row, in july they immediately fell by more than 25%, only slightly exceeding 2 million tons. experts have two versions, why washington began to hold back the so-called molecules of freedom, which the european union had previously received, postivroga. before the elections in the states, the maximum amount of hydrocarbons should remain for... curbing price growth, this increases the chances of kamala harris. in addition, against the backdrop of the boom in the development of artificial intelligence, colossal energy capacity is required. the us has approved the construction of a record number of gas power plants in 10 years. such a turn could be a blow to the

iran is the third—largest producer of oil in opec.ll to the international market because of the us sanctions on it. so it is hard to gauge exactly what impact it will have. it will, however, further impact the price of oil, at least in the short run. we have heard a lot _ least in the short run. we have heard a lot about _ least in the short run. we have heard a lot about the _ least in the short run. we have heard a lot about the strait - least in the short run. we have heard a lot about the strait of. heard a lot about the strait of hormuz and the likelihood of a run blocking that. do you think thatis run blocking that. do you think that is likely?— that is likely? this comes up periodically _ that is likely? this comes up periodically and _ that is likely? this comes up periodically and has - that is likely? this comes up periodically and has come i that is likely? this comes upj periodically and has come up that is likely? this comes up i periodically and has come up in the past every time iran has been faced with a sticky situati

but at the end of yesterday’s trading, oil added only. cents, analysts say that opec plus has free capacityeven the complete loss of iranian production. the russian stock market ignored expensive oil yesterday and fell by 15-3%. today , indices are slightly correcting upwards. the ruble has a new bout of weakness. the central bank for the first time in 5 months raised the official dollar exchange rate above 94. today the rate is 94.51, the euro - 104.45. the government wants state corporations to pay the state for the assets that they receive as a result of nationalization. amendments to the budget code are already in the state duma, rbk writes about this. the point is that if a state corporation receives from the authorities any company that was nationalized by a court decision, then it will be obliged to pay 50% of the market value of this asset. the explanatory note says that this initiative is a quote: in order to ensure the interests of the treasury. end of quote. recently , the number of cases in russia has increased, in which the prosecutor general's office has sought through the cou