steve kornacki has a piece of paper in his mouth >> steve, i keep wondering if you are looking for myet -- 1625. it's early morning you're awake with me. how exciting is this we've got an election coming down to absentees in washington county, pennsylvania we all get to watch it together. >> seth: very enthusiastic it's a joy to watch. [ cheers and applause >> thank you >> seth: and of course, couldn't help notice, one of the things that was making that night particularly hard, you had a cast on one of your hands. was that -- that was a recent injury, yes? >> the day before that, or two days before that, i had gone over the handle bars on a bike so, that was -- i had a broken hand and had to go to surgery about 10:00 a.m. the morning after that election. so, we were up until 5:00 a.m., waiting for the final votes to come in. i had no sleep and then i went to surgery soon as i got out of there. >> seth: well you did a fantastic job. way to play through the injury >> thank you [ cheers and applause >> seth: so, i'm really enjoying your impeachment podcast you both sort of fill everybody

steve kornacki will explain. >>> plus, some vulnerable house democrats say their party is not helping them fight gop attacks back home. is it because two of the big financial backers who usually help spread the message for impeachment and why the president is not doing a good job are now running for president themselves? >>> but first, the president will have his day on capitol hill. he asked for this. will he use it? if you live with diabetes,

vaughn hilliard is on the ground in iowa and steve kornacki is here to break down the polls. >> first, the nbc-wall street journal poll, this is donald trump ie aprooeapproval rating, where it has been for a long time now. one interesting thing there is despite all of the drama, the revelations, all of that, his approval rating is kind of stable and has been stable. that is even though 49% of the people in this poll now say they support impeaching and remauving him from office. what does that look like. it looks like election day 2016, 48% voted for mikt ohillary cli. you might see the poll conver

we will talk about that with steve kornacki. and the white house wants the supreme court to rule on the president's tax returns. we just found out that today. we're going to get to that as well. but i think it's useful to remember this entire scandal starts and revolves around the notes of president trump's own call with the ukrainian president zelensky, right? it's a call he said was perfect and that's the call that prompts the whistle-blower complaint, and that in turn gets the house to formally announce the impeachment inquiry. and when people start clamoring to know what did he do in this call, what's the call with the call, the president releases the call notes. and everyone gets to see in their own eyes what transpired. and now the president is attempting in a clever or dumb or just sort of feral animal instinct kind of way, he's telling anyone that will listen is pay lots of attention to the single most incriminating piece of evidence against him. so those are the call notes of his call with the ukrainian president. trump

joining me now is steve kornacki.sting, steve. >> chris, they have taken a pretty big turn. we were here about a half hour ago saying matt bevin was ahead by five points but it was going to get closer because of lexington and louisville will come in. they have come in mostly and look at the difference. bevin now trails this thing by nearly 30,000 votes. when i was on the air a little bit ago, his lead was 40,000. this thing has turned around completely. i can show you all of fayette county, lexington, kentucky. nearly 37,000 vote plurality. in the last gubernatorial election in 2015, the democratic candidate won this county by 10,000 votes. so a major difference there, but this the biggest by far. jefferson county, louisville, biggest county, biggest city in the state still counting votes there. look at that, in 85,000 vote plurality for andy beshear. that is what has been coming in in the last 30 minutes or so. that is the biggest reason. i'm just seeing why it's changed. he now has a 23,000 vote lead. what is left?

coming in now with what we know is msnbc national correspondent steve kornacki. entioned trump won the state bishop 20 points. what you are seeing is half the vote is in. you see a five-point lead here state wide right now. we expect this to end up a lot closer than that that lead just in your introduction there, that shrunk, this is the largest county in the state,everson county, the city where louisville is. a bunch of votes came in there. this is democratic county. this is the mother of them all. andy beshear. he is leading it by 17,000 votes right now over matt bevin in jefferson county. look at this number right here. only 21% of the precincts in the largest county in the state are reporting. already you can see beshear has a plurality of 17,000. so he is going to add a lot to that in jefferson county be every the night's over. >> that is the story in fayette county. this is where lexington, the university of kentucky, you see again very early, only 5% of the vote is counted here and already you see beshear is up to more than a 1,500 vote over matt bevin. he

joining us once again is steve kornacki.ll me what i need to know about virginia. >> we just got another call from the ap. i can show you two parts to this. starting in the house of delegates coming into tonight 51-48, there was a vacancy. so essentially 51-49 coming into tonight. what was just called in the last minute on the house side, right now the ap says democrats have flipped three seats, a net of three seats on the house of delegates side. remember they needed two or more. right now they're exceeding the number. they're hitting their number basically. there are still -- i want to get the exact number here -- there are 19 races in the house of delegates that have not been called by the associated press. so there are still 19 outstanding. but right now the current net gain for democrats is 3. they need to end the night at 2 or more to control that. on the senate side the net gain they have is 2 for the democrats. again, this was a vacant republican seat. this basically pushed the democrats, as you see that puts them --

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joining us is correspondent steve kornacki. steve, thank you very much for being here tonight.. >> beto o'rourke, a lot of excitement when he got into the race. do you expect his leaving the race to have consequences for any other candidate? >> i was looking at the polling that's out there. he was at 1%, 2% in the polls and as you start to break that down and see where it's coming from, really hard to tell. it looks like it's more from the younger end of the spectrum than the older end. the candidate struggling the most with younger voters, joe biden. so maybe it's good news for anybody not named biden but realistically at the level o'rourke was at the end here, it's hard to see him having a measurable impact. >> his trajectory like in raw political science terms, he came out of this texas senate campaign where he got reasonably close to knocking off an incumbent republican senator in texas. got a huge amount of attention from liberals nationwide but also from the press. i presume that gave him an interesting fund-raising base. when he started particularly at the beginning when

so let's talk about it steve kornacki really quickly. obviously it wasn't just that donald trump and his candidate performed poorly in the cities and in the suburbs. they didn't run up the totals even in some rural counties that they had -- you know, that the republican gubernatorial candidate had run up four years ago. it was mainly those suburbs, those campbell and the suburbs up around cincinnati, wasn't it, that really changed? >> yeah, they did. i mean, look, when you have a democrat winning in kentucky and the margin is 4/10 of one point, it sort of ends up being a perfect storm and everything that needed to go right if the democrats went right for them. it was the first sign last night that bevin really was in trouble. if you look at a map of kentucky, the northern group of three counties that kind of juts out. cincinnati's on the other side of the ohio river. these are the cincinnati suburbs. in each one of those counties relative to what he did four years ago when he got elected governor, bevin was ten-plus points behind that pa

steve kornacki is at the big board for us when we come back. . ied to a crisp, professionally! (vo) you earned it, we're here to make sure you get it. quickbooks. backing you. whether you're or here on a wifi hotspot. xfinity mobile has more coverage to keep you connected to what matters most. that's because it's the only wireless network that automatically connects you to millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. switch now and see how you could save up to $400 a year. and get 50% off when you buy any new lg phone. xfinity mobile. click, call or visit a store today. >>> as your next governor, i will listen more than i talk. i will work with anyone who has a good idea that we can deliver for kentuckians. with all the partisan bickering and nastiness we're seeing in politics, we have an opportunity to do better right here in kentucky. >> he lived in the governor's mansion as a young man and nbc news has declared andy beshear winner of the governor's race in kentucky. we are joined by vaughn hilliard covering the race. beshear's headquarters emptying out

this is what a blue state looks like now. >> steve kornacki at the big board for us. thank you.t turned out to be a consequential election night. there's also this that we noticed tonight on twitter. remember julie briskman, the virginia woman who was fired for flipping off trump. she was waving at the motorcade but didn't use four of her fingers. she just won an election to her local county board of supervisors. one of the results from the commonwealth of virginia tonight. >>> coming up for us, donald trump's old friend and personal lawyer proven to be at the center of u.s. foreign policy in ukraine and now part of the impeachment controversy when we come back. if your adventure... keeps turning into unexpected bathroom trips. you may have overactive bladder, or oab. not again! we're seeing a doctor when we get home. myrbetriq treats oab symptoms of urgency, frequency, and leakage. it's the first and only oab treatment in its class. myrbetriq may increase blood pressure. tell your doctor right away if you have trouble emptying your bladder or have a weak urine stream. myrbetriq

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over to steve kornacki at the board. steve, it's as if we planned it this way.ook at where you have numbers from tonight. >> all this talk about black support in south carolina in particular. let's take a look at what the numbers say. this is the latest south carolina poll. came out just this week. this is the overrule number here. you see biden continuing to lead in the state. you see kamala harris, 6%. by the way, you don't see cory booker even registering here. that's his support level in south carolina. take a look at the breakdown, white versus black. you remember almost two-thirds of the electorate in south carolina next year on the democratic side will be african-american. this is what it looks like among white voters. check out among black voters. joe biden. this has been the story all year. 44%. more than 4 to 1 over in e candidate. second place is bernie sanders. distant second place. warren back at 8%. then you get kamala harris at 6%. guess who's name you don't see here? you were just talking to cory booker. cory booker not even registering with afri

joining me from des moines, vaughn hillyard and at the big board here in new york, steve kornacki. inions? >> what are those? i'm not sure. >> all right. we'll leave that aside. steve, focus on what you know. tell me the numbers. how are the polls shaking out for those four candidates? >> brand new poll. four in dunouble digits. is this this is a college poll that tells you the picture of an unsettled race especially in iowa here. warren is in first, you see sanders, remember a couple weeks ago they were talking about that he had the health issue, oldest candidate in the field, was his support going to slide away. and this poll looks like a pretty strong rebuttal to that notion. buttigieg much stronger in iowa than we see nationally in some of the other early states. biden fourth place now bunched tightly, so four candidates right near the top. it speaks to on the unsettled nature of the race. i tell you, you think of iowa caucus races in the past. unsettled races have had unpredictable finishes. 2004, candidate in single digits and zipped up at the end. so all four have something t

for that i want to bring in msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. he's at the big board. nbc news road war i don't vaughn hillyard joins us from louisville, kentucky. vaughn, it's a state that president trump won by about 30 points in 2016. here we are just three years later. looks like there will be a deck kr democrat in the governor's mention. steve, what happened in kentucky in the simplest terms. >> democrats needed everything to go right and pretty much everything went right. three things i quickly draw your attention to. number one, i had the same thing, louisville -- i've been saying louisville my whole life. in louisville, the biggest county in the state, biggest city in the state. it wasn't just that beshear won, he got nearly a 100,000-vote margin over matt bevin. that was massive democratic support. last election the democrat by won by about 37,000 votes. that happened in the democratic vote producing area. right here, the three counties in the northern part of the state, those are the suburbs of cincinnati, ohio, right across the ohio ri

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so 1999 so steve kornacki went through the numbers. years. >> the radio tv correspondents dinner. >> we have a great picture of us in the first year when we were dating. we haven't changed that much, have we? >> no, i've stayed exactly the same. you've become more glamorous. >> and 1989 we did a fabulous first family safari to africa. >> we went all around these wild places in kenya that very few people go, and we found real animals. they weren't on a preserve or anything. >> and our kids are grown up now obviously but caroline at that point was only 10 years, thomas was in 7th grade and michael was a sophomore in high school. >> back then we went through showers made out of river water and a big plastic bottle of water to throw over your head. >> and bill clinton was the president, very popular over in africa. what was he like to cover for you on "hardball"? >> a mixed bag like most politicians. i think he was as smart as a whip. he got in trouble that put a mark on his presidency, but i think he figured out a way to save the democrat

. >> steve kornacki at the board with a look at "hardball" by the numbers. and remember when chris matthews was challenged to a dual? that's coming up, too. >> congratulations on an incredible run, chris. 20 years of "hardball." you can inhale now. >> i've been watching you for 20 years, and i am still struck by your insights and the way you get politics and get into the areas where nobody else would have thought of it. >> i'm deeply moved by your journalistic clarity and more importantly by the truth you've been telling us. >> hi, chris. i want to wish you a very happy 20th anniversary. i remember a little bit more than 20 years ago when you told a group of us that you were thinking of doing a tv show. i thought, what? and now here you are. i cannot believe it's been 20 years. >> chris, congratulations. it's been an honor, a privilege and a real pleasure to cover the history in the making with you all these years. >> i congratulate you on 20 terrific years. >> congratulations, my friend. you know, i've learned a lot sitting at that table over the years. i'v

here one of the best analysts out there msnbc national correspondent steve kornacki.e you, buddy? so, you know, one of the biggest trends i think it's fair to say in the trump era since that 2016 election, special elections, in the mid-terms is the suburbs, right? what is going on in america's suburbs in the trump era? >> i think a couple of things. number one, just in term of opposition for trump, the energy, the motivation to get out and vote it's very clearly there, it's a story in pennsylvania. this week local elections, county elections in pennsylvania, suburbs of philadelphia, democrats were taking over governments there in some places they hadn't led and -- >> those races, those pennsylvania race, virginia is on this weird schedule so there's a bunch of people on the ballot. those are real just local county races happening in pennsylvania, people still coming out. >> and i think what it reflected there what's the difference. i think what you're seeing there is the sinking up of national politics with everything down ballot from there. because you have counties

steve kornacki has the ratest results. steve, i want to start with you because i think the question for people who don't live in kentucky, what can this tell us when it comes to 2020 and frankly, president trump's chances in that election year? >> it's an interesting question because you can look at some of the areas where bevin really ran behind how a republican normally would do, how trump did in 2016 in kentucky, how bevin did the first time he got elected. in particular, if you look at the map on your screen, the three northern counties that kind of jut out in the center part of the state there, those are the suburbs of cincinnati. those are densely populated counties. they make up about 10% of the state's population. they are normally republican, reliably republican, and you can see bevin lost two of them and he severely underperformed in the third county. and i think the question that's raised here is how much of that reflects this national story we've been telling about suburban areas moving away from trump and the r

joining me now is the national political correspondent steve kornacki. you and i talk about this all the time. our political situation and environment is so different that sometimes the past is not the most accurate har ben jof what'. what do you think? >> we have two sort of major sets of hearings, the senate watergate committee hearings, summer of fall of '73 and then the house judiciary committee in '74 where they drew up, debate and passed articles of impeachment. ha you s what you saw was that public opinion did move if the was responsive to the revelations. finally got to the point that on the eve of his resignation in august of 1974 about 2/3s of americans said they wanted to see richard nixon impeached and removed from office. there was a slow but steady climb in that number. but different era. media landscape didn't have the partisan, polarized media sources that dominate the conversation back then ro, only three televised stations. so there was really one story that was being told nationally back then. >> right. >> i think because of that, publ

. >> joining me is the nbc national political analyst steve kornacki and also jonathan altar.ak this down for us with the polling. >> yes, the way to look at it, the primary, and the national poll, and ours and the nbc/"wall street journal" poll, and biden and sanders and the two things that jump out, number one, we were talking about warren catching biden and maybe some talk that she would leave nim the dust, but things have stabilize on that front, and biden is a few points ahead, and you will see it currently in the polls around and the warren surge is stabilize for the moment. and also, i would draw attention to bernie sanders in third which is up from the last poll, and also given the questions of the last month of the future of the campaign, and the health care and the oldest candidate and he is very much in the race 19% off of a warren a couple of points. again, looking at new hampshire, he got a good poll out of there last week, and iowa in the polling mix there, and sanders i would not forget about him in the mix right now. we did poll, speaking of the general electio

here to break it all down msnbc's national political correspondent steve kornacki.m i at? >> this one. >> so how is this debate going to be different in any way from previous ones or the qualification? >> so we had 12 last month. the last debate there were 12 candidates on stage. the most crowded, give you a sense of just the totality. these are all the democrats who at some point have run or currently are running for president. 29 in all at some point said they were running the xs through the ones. there are still 18 who are active and also michael bloomberg has now filed to be on the primary bout in a few states. he says he is not officially running. but his name is now on the ballot in a couple states and he's reserving the right to do it. but you see these are all the candidates who are still out there running. you mentioned those who are actually going to be on this stage. it'll be ten instead of 12, no castor. beto o'rourke is out. there will be no bloomberg or a deval patrick. also a bunch of candidates here who now it's been multiple debates since they have

vaughn hilliard is on the ground in iowa and steve kornacki is here to break down the polls. >> firste nbc-wall street journal poll, this is donald trump ie aprooeapproval rating, where it has been for a long time now. one interesting thing there is despite all of the drama, the revelations, all of that, his approval rating is kind of stable and has been stable. that is even though 49% of the people in this poll now say they support impeaching and remauving him from office. what does that look like. it looks like election day 2016, 48% voted for mikt ohillary cli. you might see the poll conver converging with attitudes towards trump that has been there all along. if it grows the republicans get nervous. you have questioning about republican defections it kind of looks like the divide that we have been living with for the last coupling years. this is the national poll and democratic primary race. biden still in second, sanders, that is a strong third for him. he is strong in the national polling right now nap is another name to keep an eye on there. in terms of the general election we

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but let's go straight to steve kornacki for the latest on kentucky. steve, nbc is calling andy beshear the apparent winner. what are we waiting for confirmation there? >> yeah, so basically you can see the margin here. it is inside of 1% here. this is 0.4% of 1%. the margin here 4,801 votes. we have every precinct in the state accounted for. what is happening now is that matt bevin, the governor -- there it is, we just had a -- i want to figure out what just happened there. i think i may know. it was this. this is where we had a discrepancy and i wasn't sure on. the misthis is the one discrepy that was on the board. i apologize, lawrence, it literally happened as we were right here. it updated by a few thousand votes, the totals for bevin and beshear. but you can see it still lands about 5,126 votes. 51-26 that's what it lands at right here. matt bevin the governor said he's not conceding this election. he has the right if he wants -- he didn't say he's necessarily doing this -- he has the right to file for a recount. if he has to do if he wants to tak

steve kornacki estimates one in four democratic voters in the primaries, african-american.oes this mayor have any hope of winning folks over to his side? >> steve kornacki also points out in that piece that you just read from that since 1992, no democratic candidate for president has eventually become the nominee for president without winning a majority of the black vote. mayor pete in polling has shown up at zero percent. the most he's reached is 4% support from black voters. they're obviously a lot of room for him to grow. this conversation that he had at a table full of white men by the way, in 2011, which is like also very problematic to be talking about minority and low income students at the a table full of white men no matter what year it is, is obviously coming back to haunt him in a way that, you know, voters, reporters alike want to know where he stands on these issues now, especially as you mentioned earlier in the segment, as he's struggling to really gain traction with black voters. it's interesting when you compare someone like pete buttigieg to senator elizab

now its time for the "last word" with my friend steve kornacki in tonight for lawrence o'donnell. good evening, steve. >> thank you for that. happy thanksgiving to you as well. >>> and we are excited to have neil cattyal here tonight. now all that analysis is poured out into the a new book just out. it is called impeach, the case against donald trump. neal thinks he has the winning argument to impeach donald trump. we'll hear what he has to say. and michael moore will be here to break down the state of the democratic presidential race and how to talk to your relatives at thanksgiving dinner about politics. plus could rudy giuliani turn on donald trump? what the next phase of the impeachment investigation could mean for the president's relationship with his personal lawyer. but first it is decision time. as much of america takes a break and celebrates thanksgiving, president trump in the impeachment committees have some major decisions to makeover the coming days. white house officials will spend their thanksgiving weekend up against a sunday deadline to decide whether to participat

our national commpolitical correspondent steve kornacki. what's going on here?umber o trips back to kansas. when trump says if i thought there was somebody who might not be able to win, who he's probably talking about there is this guy, the controversial former secretary of state in kansas. last year kobach ran last year. there's some concern that he could put the seat at risk for a republican. kansas a very red state generally. trump won here by 21 points. what trump would be counting on there if it comes to it is the republican base being so loyal to trump in kansas and elsewhere. if trump gave his seal of approval to pompeo, would that help pol poem -- pompeo. the loyalty of trump to the republican base potentially a factor there as well. let's look at the latest impeachment polling we have. dead even overall on the question. 47% impeaching him, 47 oppose in removing trump. the partisan -- the overwhelming opposition among republicans, think about some of the swing state republicans, republicans who have got to run in swing states next year. before that, take

steve kornacki at the big board breaking down the numbers for us.t any moment we're awaiting house intelligence committee chairman adam schiff to speak and answer questions about that released testimony. his comments live right here on msnbc. stay with us. live right here o msnbc. stay with us ♪ (mom vo) it's easy to shrink into your own little world. especially these days. (dad) i think it's here. (mom vo) especially at this age. (big sis) where are we going? (mom vo) it's a big, beautiful world out there. (little sis) whoa... (big sis) wow. see that? (mom vo) sometimes you just need a little help seeing it. (vo) the three-row subaru ascent. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. i wish i could shake your hand. granted. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ my bladder leak underwear.orried someone might see so, i switched. to always discreet boutique. its shape-hugging threads smooth out the back. so it fits better than depend. and no o

i'm steve kornacki in for chris matthews. with the house drive towards impeachment kicking into high gear and hearings in the judiciary committee set to begin next week, new information is emerging about president trump's personal attorney, rudy giuliani. even as the president himself is trying to distance himself from the man who he is increasingly at the center of it all. "the washington post" and "the new york times" both report that giuliani was pursuing business deals in ukraine with ukrainians officials at the same time he was trying to dig up dirt on president trump's political rivals. this according to documents and people familiar with the matter. according to "the post" giuliani, quote, negotiated earlier this year to represent ukraine's top prosecutor for at least $200,000 during the same months that giuliani was working with the prosecutor to dig up dirt on vice president joe biden. in an interview with "the wall street journal" giuliani said he decided he couldn't represent -- the information comes just days afte

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joining us now, steve kornacki. you, somebody who studies day it, analytics and poll, are you excited, are you interested to see how this bloomberg strategy will play out? we've never seen it before. >> very interested to see it because there is a couple dynamics here that are unusual. number one, just the fact as you say that he is skipping the early contest but he is spending potentially so much money on the states. we have seen self-funding candidates before. ross perot in a general election, steve foerbess. but the scale at least potentially of what bloomberg will try to do in terms of the money that he will spend may be unparalleled. and i think that is a fascinating experiment to have, somebody spending that much moneyo money over a sustained period. i know a lot of people are skeptical, a lot of reasons to be skeptical about it, but you can't really look to the past and say here is where it has been tried before. kind of unchartered territory. so fascinating to see. >> and we have to talk new hampshire. is it

steve kornacki joins us. >>> the head of one of the most famous companies in the world is out of a jobter revealing a consensual relationship with an employee. is there more to this story though? whose tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad, get e*trade. decision day and a unique question is hanging over this race. president trump might end up surviving impeachment but can he survive the election? new nbc news "wall street journal" polling may have the answer. i want to bring in msnbc national political correspondent steve ckonacki, what stands out for you in this poll? >> a couple things, chris. the impeachment story has dominated washington for the last few weeks, all of the different bits of testimony, the different revelations about trump, ukraine policy. but if you look at his approval rating, you wouldn't know anything had happened either way. 45% in our poll. i think it was 43% the last time we checked in but basically this is the range in our poll that donald trump has been operating i

joining me now is steve kornacki. so, steve, on the subject of piquing, when is the best time to pique? >> this is the big question in politics. buttigieg is on the rise and his campaign would like to believe that number will keep going up and he'll run away with the nomination, but we have seen more than a few cases in the past where the candidate who is on the rise in november, on the rise in december ends up an afterthought when the voting actually begins. so this is the democratic race right now. this is the new national poll from quinnipiac yesterday. let's look back at the last time there was sort of a wide open jumbled field on the democratic side. when democrats were trying to come up with a candidate to take out a republican president. this was back in 2004, george w. bush was the president. the iraq war democrats had a pretty wide open primary that year. this is what the national poll looks like in this race right now. this is what it looked like this same poll at this same point in 2003. the front-runner wa

let me bring in national political correspondent, steve kornacki. this an instance of maybe what happens in iowa stays in iowa? >> that's one of the questions, would this be bigger than iowa. also another question, is he peaking too soon. this is what it looks like on the ground in iowa right now if you picked up the biggest newspaper in the state on sunday. you put the poll result there, 9 point lead now in the signature poll out in iowa, the des moines register poll. competitive democratic caucuses, this poll having a lead in this poll, the des moines register poll at this point. how have those candidates done in recent elections? we can show you the most recent election, democratic side, hillary clinton was the leader at this point ruffle in the des moines register poll and they won 48% in the pole, 49.9 on caucus day. 2008, barack obama with 28%, he led in the des moines register poll around this point, won the iowa caucuses. there's a good track record, but it is not a perfect track record. think back to 2003. remember this guy? richard gephart

joining me msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki, dan balz and d democratic strategisti basil smikle. this is obviously painting a different picture when you look at the battleground states. what do you make of it? >> a little bit of polling whiplash, i guess you could say here. try to make some sense. first of all, the numbers will move around from poll to poll, there's a margin of error. we tested nbc/"wall street journal" head-to-heads of biden and warren against trump. you just saw the new one today, the abc/"washington post," i think they had biden up 17. we had them up 9. they had warren up fit15. we had her up 8. what was donald trump's approval rating? we merasured his approval ratin at 45%. i believe the number in this abc "washington post" poll is 38%. keep an eye on the approval rating. that will drive a lot of the outcome in 2020. if it is in the 30s, i think you can expect to see numbers in the abc/"washington post" poll, if it's in the mid-40s, it becomes more competitive. if it becomes more competitive nationally, that's where the whole swing state electo

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joining us now is msnbc national correspondent steve kornacki. steve, help us understand, mayor pete specifically in iowa, but really in a broader sense because he's the top dog there but remains number four across the board. >> yeah, it's an interesting dynamic with pete buttigieg. he does lead the des moines poll. the most immediate question, can he sustain the lead? obviously, he's going to have a target on his back. will that lead hold up. here's a look back at recent history of candidates who led in the same poll at the same point in the campaign. how did they hold up, hillary clinton, the leader in iowa. at this point nationally in 2015, that held up, she held iowa. and obama led with 28% in a poll around this time. ended up winning as well, 10 points higher than that. here's the cautionary note, 2004 cycle, that's when republicans needed a nominee to run against a president. they wanted out of office. and dick gerhart who led in iowa. howard dean second in leading nationally. and then john edwards coming in second place. so iowa, an example

nbc news political correspondent steve kornacki. steve, what are the numbers telling us?you through everything a year out. donald trump's approval rating. the new nbc wall street journal poll. 45% in this poll. interestingly, compared to a few weeks ago, the last nbc wall street journal poll, this is actually up two points. so the question of whether all the swirls controversy around impeachment was going to have a measurable impact one way or the other, him soaring one way or crashing the other way on his approval rating, really trump is where he's been for a long time now in his approval rating. also, you can look at this. that question of impeaching and removing him from office. 49% support that. plurality support there. 46% oppose. here's the interesting thing. 49-46. that split, does it look a little familiar? looks pretty similar to this. 48-46 on election day. 2016. hilary clinton, donald trump. that's one of the questions here. opinion on impeachment and removal. is it sort of converging on that fault line that was revealed on election day 2016? has anything reall

here to help us make sense of this tonight is msnbc correspondent steve kornacki. >> all right. rachel, let's begin in kentucky. andy beshear, you just mentioned it the democrat taking out the incumbent matt bevin. this a big trump state in 2016. he won it by 30 points. he was there the other night trying to get matt bevin across the finish line. why did bevin fall short? why was beshear able to win? a couple of factors that went into this. number one, in the democratic areas of kentucky, there are not many democratic areas in kentucky, but in the democratic areas that do exist, the turnout, the support level for beshear was through the roof. look at this. the margin of victory here for beshear over bevin in this county, 100,000, almost 100,000-vote difference here. some context here. the last time around when bevin got elected in 2015, the democratic margin in this country was just 37,000. it exploded from 37,000 up to 100,000. you saw a similar dynamic, fayette county, where lexington is. the university of kentucky. 36,000-vote difference there. only 10,000 for the democrat in

but when i looked at the number, and, you know, i haven't had a chance to talk to our guy steve kornackibout this. when i looked at the numbers what was very clear is there was an ecplosixplosion of participan the cities and suburbs. in missouri in 2018 when i was defeated, we had that same explosion in the blue areas of missouri. but they had the same explosion in the rural areas also. what happened in louisiana is you saw a falling off of that generated enthusiasm that trump has been able to do up until now with repeated visits to a state and repeated rallies with his base. clearly that didn't work in getting his voters out in louisiana, which is why that democratic governor squeaked to victory because they did have that kind of ecplosion and participation in the blue areas of the state. >> eugene, back into the hearing room. anything on the calendar looking forward that's going to match the lumber, the import, the tension of today and sondland? >> not that we know of yet. i mean, before sondland's testimony we could look toward david holmes tomorrow to talk about that phone call and t

national political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc and author of "the red and the blue" steve kornacki"the washington post," david ignatius joins us and nbc news correspondent heidi przybyla joins us now. >> they're two stories that for people who are just stupid enough to like w