tom: no. [laughter] jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden and other members issued a tough new warning to vladimir putin today and brussels. they will tell moscow not to use nuclear or chemical weapons in their war with ukraine. the g7 also plans to say it will fully implement sanctions the companies ash countries already imposed and already to impose more. the u.k. is out with its own set of 65 new sections on russia according to a foreign secretary . they target strategic industries, banks, and business elites. also on the list, the world's largest diamond princess are -- time and producer. meanwhile, the u.s. and european union are close to a deal to/europe's dependency on russian energy and an agreement may be announced as soon as friday. president biden's national security advisor says there will be a surge of u.s. supplies a liquefied natural gas to europe. kim jong-un has finally abando

tom: more than back-to-back. jonathan: 50, 50, and 25 after that for the rest of this year and into next year. tom: it is wicked, to use the phrase from boston, it is wicked. we will do this. jobs day tomorrow. usually it will be like april 7, april 8. no, it is april 1. rubeela farooqi joins us, chief economist for high frequency economics. just piercing analysis on the u.s. economy and the global. let's go to jobs day. is it a fully employed america? rubeela: the job market is looking pretty strong in terms of job creation in another itself. -- in and of itself. the things we are looking out for right now are participation and wages. we saw moderation of wages in february. if we can see that go forward, it could take the pressure off. participation and the labor force, back is something we are concentrating on. the job market has a lot of positive momentum. tom: my study of economic history is wage growth never catches up with inflation. am i right on that? rubeela: there have been episodes where we have seen j

tom: i never did that.ve this and we didn't have what were called party lines where you could hear the lady next door screaming. jonathan: did you? tom: this is just after the photograph came in. finland announces they will stop the trade from helsinki to st. petersburg because everyone that they know of has left. jonathan: amazing. the president heading to poland. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. ♪ >> what has been remarkable is the market, the risk assets have really discounted the

thank you, tom. tom, is the pandemic over? tom: that is a really good question.han: it depends on where you go in america. it depends on which state. tom: we'll have this collective memory of -- i watched death every day, jon, and to me it was getting under 900 deaths. we have accomplished that. we are at 750 deaths. that is spectacular. we need to do more. jonathan: what are you waiting for? who are you waiting for to tell you it is over and what do you want to do you can't do currently? even here in new york city the mandate to go into a restaurant, vaccine mandate, is done with. that is optional for the restaurants. i would say that, lisa, the only time you have to wear a mask is when you get into a taxicab or uber. that is basically it. lisa: my building just lifted the requirement for masks. i walked into the elevator mask less and there was another individual mask less and it felt wrong. is this ok? are you all right with this? i keep it in my pocket just in case. there is a lack of direction. tom: i still have the mask in my pocket, that is true. jonathan:

tom: i am shocked.athan: what i will do instead of apologizing is, we will make the trip to frankfurt and do a tour of restaurants. tom: madame lagarde can get us a reservation. jonathan: how many times have a been and how many times have we failed to find a decent place to get some lunch? tom: a short lunch is an hour and a long lunch is three hours. lisa: doubling down? [laughter] what about caps? tom: we are going to do the sports report at the end of this hour. right now emily wilkins, and she knows if you are in l.a. this time of year, there is one trip east of san francisco on the nevada border, mammoth mountain, with the most expensive gas prices on the planet. $6.49 per gallon. emily, don't tell me about speaker pelosi and mammoth mountain. tell me about washington and mammoth mountain. how is gas going down? emily: a gallon of gas is at the top of mind for every politician in washington, d.c. right now. if you are a democrat it is worrying you, because you have a midterm election coming up, and

david: good morning, tom.t our board on monday passed a major package monday afternoon, so that when he becomes available right away, meaning today or tomorrow, for ukraine. that helps them survive as they are fighting back against the russian invasion. it goes for things like food and doctors that they desperately need. today we look to build a broader package that can begin to think about reconstruction as well, but right now we are focused on refugees, on the region, and on how you hold it together. tom: are you basically working at the border like the red cross? david: today we are working through the ministry of finance of ukraine, which still exists and is operational. so they are supporting the service and ukraine. we are not working with russia's -- with russians in ukraine or in russia. we have stopped all of our operations in both russia and belarus. lisa: there is a lot of focus on ukraine and helping refugees, as there should be. there's also a growing focus on nations that rely on ukraine and russ

tom: i will say this.t i am stunned by his the openness of western intelligence led by the head of the secret service of the united kingdom yesterday. jonathan: 20 binance away. will be talking -- 20 minutes away. we will talk about this crude move with brian nick from nuveen. this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. the biden administration may use the strategic oil reserve to help with inflation. bloomberg has learned the u.s. may release roughly a million barrels of oil per day for months. the total release could be as much as 180 million barrels. president biden is said to speak today on efforts on energy cost. ukraine says talks with russia are set to resume on friday. the negotiations will take place via videoconference. in person talks in turkey did not produce a cease fire or major progress towards a broader peace deal. russia did agree to reduce military activity in northern you rain. barclays is the latest bank to raise compensation or its u.s. workers they

jonathan: tom mentioned japan.they get increasingly lonely and they want to get this cycle out and keep their yields capped, what is that number going to? >> i think it will go higher. the japanese financial institutions are massive. even the regional financial institution so there is capacity couldn't -- to continue to buy. japanese investors are global and they can -- and they can bring some funds back home to deploy if they come more -- if they become more compelling a nominal yield basis. jonathan: thank you as always. to draw your attention to a note, a note came in from bill dudley. the fed's application of its framework to control inflation has made a hard landing virtually inevitable. that's the line from bill dudley. tom: short and brief and as a former public official, it's quite something. i don't recall decades ago where you would see this angst from a former president of the fed. what's important is this is not an academic exercise. dudley has been dead on taking a new stance. jonathan: former fed offi

tom: thank you so much.lose after the fed press conference always an important close. romaine bostick this afternoon. vix from 35 comes in at 32, and now an even better statistic of 28. this is well-timed of this day of the federal reserve meeting to speak to someone whose mantle at home has trophies, not losing money and the bond market. gregory peters joins us from pgim fixed income. one statistic in your research report, a model growth two years out of 2.4%. what does yield do, and does this consensus of higher yield do, if we get a pgim economic growth of 2.4% in 2023? gregory: yes, thanks, time. i think the real narrative is how growth is being altered. so if you think about where the forecast for just a mere several months ago and today and where they are likely to evolve, i think we are in an environment where growth is being cut in the future. so the combination of tighter monetary policy, the geopolitical peace, is slowing down growth. i think bond markets will follow that. so for sure, this has bee

tom: let's get to it now.e have 70 different ways to go, but we will go to lisa hornby, head of u.s. multisector fixed income come on what yield measures in this global system, with schroeder's. what does yield tell you now? what does it tell you as we stagger from lagarde to other central banks? lisa h: yield, i would say, today looks way more interesting than it did 12 months ago. we look at things like the front end today. you combine high-quality corporate credit now for a two year bond, so yield tell me that the opportunities are much more available now than they have been. i'm not sure that answers your central-bank question, but certainly it means the market has discounted quite a lot in terms of future hiking. jonathan: take me into high-yield. clearly, energy mix that picture look a little prettier than perhaps it is. how much damage has been done in high-yield credit in america? lisa h: clearly, risk premium is elevated. we look at valuations across the board and we see that they are much closer to t

tom: soft landing, can it do it?t can but it is complicated because of the enormous structural change. and the data quality is declining in the united states. it is not that the data is bad, it is bad because it is not telling us what is actually going on. tom: thank you, paul donovan, global chief economist, ubs. laura: democratic senator manchin will oppose the nomination of a key role at the federal reserve. mansion supports an expansion of oil and gas drilling. he joins republicans in resisting raskin over her stance on climate change. senator timmy says -- senator toomey -- trading a nickel will resume tomorrow. it was suspended last week in the midst of an historic short squeeze. the tycoon at the center of the crisis has to deal with his bank not making any margin calls. a live tv news broadcast on russian state media was briefly interrupted by a protester waving a sign that read, stop the war, do not believe propaganda, they are lying to you. the woman had a few moments to make her point before the channel cu

tom: good morning,

tom: that's what we like.nn: and the value factors have been pretty consistent leadership factors, even in sectors like tech and consumer discretionary, communications services. you can screen for the characteristic of value without limiting yourself to the sectors or areas that just happen to live in the value indexes. so i think quality value is where investors want to focus and avoiding areas like high volatility, week balance sheets, non-profitability. i think that low-quality trade is largely in the rearview mirror. lisa: we have seen a lot of outflows from equity funds, from riskier debt funds, but how concerned are you that as plants open up their statements, they will withdraw some more and accelerate some of the losses? liz ann: it depends on what type of investor you are. if you are an active investor, doing it on your own or you employ active managers, there's been a more level playing field this year. there's more dispersion, ostensibly more ability for active to outperform passive. so i think it d

tom: thank you.hose of you younger, it is important to understand, in times of crisis some years ago, you leaned over the desk and you read every line of edward yard denny. i have the clearest member of 1991 when he wrote an important essay, the collapse of communism is bullish. the forces of darkness have not been vanquished entirely but do not underestimate the forces of light. the big picture is very bright. things have changed and we welcome the doctor this morning. what can you write this morning of the people of ukraine in this new iron curtain? >> i think you are absolutely right, this is many ways the second cold war. the first one ended in 1989, the berlin wall came tumbling down, and there was a lot of concerns back then that it would lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, figuring all of those folks suddenly were free would want commodities, would want to borrow money. instead, we had a tremendous amount of global competition that lowered inflation and bond yields an interest rat

tom: in terms of individual stocks, u.k. regulators blocking a proposed merger for konecranes , a finnish company in logistics seeing gains of 3% despite that news that it has been blocked. the energy sector with a revision for sse on better renewable output, that's not gaining. the markets have priced the bond blunder at barclays. will keep an eye on that one for you. francine: let's get over to our mliv managing editor mark cudmore, you are looking at the treasury curve particularly the 2's 10's. mark: this is a part of the curve that may invert to today or later on this week. it is seven basis away from inversion. this is a two year and a 10 year spread over the last 35 years including the last four recessions. those four blue boxes are the recessions in that period. the red line is zero, when we go below that is inversion. you can see for each of those recessions we have seen un-inversion ahead of it. it's been very reliable signal that a recession is coming, so we should pay attention. that is not the full story. first

tom: good morning, everyone.ful friday, on radio, on television, i look at one headline from putin

tom: and the vulnerabilities shift.e: i also don't know whether we talk about it because we don't know whether it is happening. >> a lot of money is being spent to find out who has got this. tom: eddie van der walt on that intrigue around a $600 million crypto heists. a redhead across the terminal, poland and france stop russian oil imports this year. after germany says it is an issue waiting -- it is initiating phase one of a three-phase energy plan. let's get the first word news. >> the u.s. says the ukrainian capital remains under threat even after russia promises to scale back the invention. -- the invasion. kyiv says it is willing to discuss the status of occupied crimea. russia's foreign minister lavrov has arrived in china for talks on afghanistan. his first visit to the world's second-largest economy since the war in ukraine began. it is the first opportunity for high-level discussions between the diplomatic allies since vladimir's invasion of ukraine. a team of u.s. investigators and technical experts will head

jonathan: i use a molded one now, tom. tom: i tried the molded one.better with the regular one. i hear better with this one them with any of the molded ones i've ever had. jonathan: we will hook damian up a little bit later. this note from ubs, we use 56% less oil to produce a dollar of gdp today than we did in 1973. thank you to sam for flagging that one for me on twitter. tom: it goes to the bloomberg commodity index chart i showed and inflation-adjusted, i stole that from damian sassower were. this is not the 1970's on all sorts of different parts of the commodity landscape. jonathan: less commodity intensive. but the bottom line, people need to eat. they need to use energy. it is getting more expensive. lisa: people need to eat. it is not just oil and gas. that sort of conflagration of commodity price increases has a pretty significant impact. jonathan: yields through 2% just about, up to basis points on the day. from new york city, on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, your market with a lift going into the open

tom: thanks so much.mall deal, but for those of a certain vintage, a name from another time and place. long ago there was plantronics, and it was a glory of a small-cap stock from three dollars of $277, and just a complete debacle to $26. all cash, hp. jonathan: what do they do? tom: they do headphones, stuff like that. jonathan: are they good headphones? tom: not those kind of headphones. they're not like you listen to tyler the creator. they are like when you are like, jon ferro is online too. that kind. jonathan: thanks for explaining that. tom: that is an interesting story there. thierry wizman remembers this at bear stearns years ago. not plantronics, but on interest rates and currencies. i am honored you are on today, and i want to link it right into macquarie, which is aussie-yen. when we move like we move, things happen. what should we be paying attention to this weekend, three standard deviation long renminbi, three standard deviation long aussie, etc.. what should we focus on? thierry: we still

tom: may a little harsh. jonathan: that's what he said, tom. not me. [laughter] tom: i know.'ve got a radel in my desk chez radel -- a rattle in my desk today. what is this, pile on tom day? jonathan: what are you doing with your microphone? tom: vet bill is under here and his kennel is vibrating. bring your dog to work. jonathan: would you like to tell us why you disagree? tom: i don't disagree with peter book far. what i am suggesting is it is about nominal gdp. gross, 1%. atlanta gdp now, inflation 7%, which is 8% growth. that is why he can be optimistic. jonathan: stop dancing around it. why do you disagree about the crude release? why is that harsh? tom: how many releases have we seen? i will take your point, it is a big deal. jonathan: thank you. futures a little softer, down 0.1% on the s&p. i am pleased you take that point. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: what a first quarter. what a first month of january, was a big selloff in tech. then february tom: i thought you meant tottenham. jonathan: i was trying to be serious about the first quarter. kind of encaps

tom: that is where we are.ill be honest, i see it in my own amateur view of real estate like everyone else, i don't know what real estate is like near you, but the bottom line is i believe real estate is still going up. jonathan: don't you have to use 58th to enter the building? tom: no, i go in through 59th, special entrance. jonathan: lisa, i know you have been following this story at the russian state-controlled energy giant. the russian coupon payments and principal payments coming out of russia and the next few weeks and months that we need to keep an eye on already in the process of settling a $1.3 billion debt due on monday. this is how it reads at the moment for the team here at bloomberg. the company will add to cash to the settlement bank, which will probably release the funds on march 4. the second piece of that line is the important piece of that line. lisa: the idea probably going to release the funds because we know that russia has banned the release of coupon payments to foreign investors, and yo

tom: let's do it now. jonathan: congratulations to brady. tom: go back to italy. we don't need him there. jonathan: futures up 9/10 of 1%. the federal reserve decision is this wednesday. ♪ ritika: the u.s. and china will hold the first high level in person talks since russia's invasion of ukraine. jake sullivan is meeting today in rome with china's top diplomat. the biden administration wants beijing to use its influence on russia to end the war. china has placed 7.5 million people into lockdown and will undergo three rounds of coronavirus tests. apple is halting production at one of its china plants. the u.s. says russia has offered military assistance. the u.s. is not saying what kind of whitman they have requested. the federal reserve will ramp up their campaign to stop the ramp up in inflation. 25 basis point increase in interest rates in russia on wednesday. tom brady has changed his mind and is not retiring after all. he will come back for a 23rd season in the nfl. global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 12

tom: gold is a potential hedge.nging the focus to the u.k., we have the cpi prints out above estimates. do you expect the boe to hike again next month? how does that affect your views on the defensive end cyclical qualities of the market? janet: we think it is very likely that the bank of england will continue its hiking cycle. they u.k. economy is still pretty decent now. the labor market is very tight. we observed that the labor market indicators in the u.k. are actually better than those in the u.s. and europe. we have a very tight labor market here. i think the boe will be hiking. i think we have a slight overweight in u.k. equity allocations. it is one of the more resilient markets this year. it is attractive in terms of valuation. if volumes continue climbing higher, that should benefit u.k. equities. we will be holding onto our u.k. overweight position. tom: janet mui, head of market analysis at brewin dolphin, on the opportunities, at least the upside in u.k. markets. thank you for joining us for the analysi

tom: thank you. jonathan: it is an honor, tom.michael mckee with us as we try to find humor in this trying time. i'm going to open it, mike. jobs report, i'm sure you have some wisdom. how odd to see a plunge in euro. second derivatives moving as well. do central banks get on the phone and talk to each other? mike: they do. tom: currency moves like this? mike: they are always talking to each other, is what they would tell you. if the europeans were going to intervene in currency markets they were called the fed. because the fed would probably have to help them in the sense of, -- tom: to affect the transaction? mike: to affect the transaction. whether they would join in, the last time the europeans intervened they did it on their own. they do talk about it. this is clearly a reaction to the jobs report, and i said not focused on payrolls, but i was wrong, because the currency traders are. they are looking at the strength of the u.s. economy and comparing it to what forecasts are now for the european economy. he see only people mar

tom: i agree.eir defense the uncertainty is so great i am sure there waiting to make those calls. jonathan: will recover more going into the opening. fruit 1.1 and one dollars and agree. in their defense the uncertainty is so great i am sure there waiting to makebrent -- crude $. wti $117. ritika: an advisor to ukraine's president says the next round of talks with russia will begin later today. u.n. says more than 1.5 billion people have fled ukraine since the war started, mostly to poland and moldova. vladimir putin has repeated the war willbrent -- continue untile accepts his demands and halts resistance. the european union is calling for fast action to ensure the safety of ukraine's nuclear power plant, two of which have been seized by invading russian forces. in a letter to the international atomic energy exchange, they urged moscow to return control to ukraine. a decree signed by russian president vladimir putin will allow russia and russian companies to pay for an creditor in rubles. it estab

we've got to wait for the reaction from tom k.: russia, haven't we? tom k.:we are getting the reaction somewhat today. the headline that gets my attention is the russians know to the issue, which is employing people. this is something we really haven't talked about. it is out to a jobs report in early april which is, this is about jobs in europe, in america, in russia. jonathan: this is the headline from the russians. russia may rethink energy commitments after sanctions. what do you think of that? tom k.: i think they're going to come back and we are going to have to see what the new slow is. the ruble out it 1.37., going to call that elevated. the tape is complex. jonathan: we had a headline from russia. they said they will restrict trade and some raw materials. it is the russian response now that i think we have to pay attention to. lisa: it did a little bit feel like, if you're not going to let me into your club then i refuse to be in your club. right now they are basically being banned by everyone, but there is a feeling that uranium is the key element

tom: coming through in the months ahead.s there throw out to the broader em space, but the beneficiaries on that additional support. kiran: you see some support flowing into other countries. em is eventually pretty good which have benefited from a higher commodity prices and we start to see that stimulus supporting things like infrastructure that can also support the australian dollar we've been looking at recently. there will be some flow through but we will get the primary beneficiaries. tom: this remarkable switch seeing some of the focus away from energy dependence on russia filling out the capacity here, how and what is the theme around investing? do you have a roadmap in place for that transition? kiran: it goes back to what i was saying earlier about security, green tech, renewables, the whole space spans well beyond that international security as well. that whole space -- security will be as countries and companies shift their focus away from supply chains and more toward security and i think this will add to that fo

alongside tom crane -- tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. brent 119.84. tom: look at the moves here, saudi light, which is something i have followed back to the 1960's is at 3.3 standard deviation move on inflation-adjusted oil. on real oil. i have never seen that. jonathan: your take away from yesterday and look forward today? tom: he is traipsing forward, waiting for the data, and also buffeted by the politicians. question here is fed independence. i saw an independent chair yesterday. jonathan: got to work out the volatility as well. lisa, russia, the financial walls are closing in. inspire and she. day by day. lisa: you're saying this with respect to sanctions. also in practice. i was struck by how it is broadening out, even aluminum. every area of the commodities sector. people do not want supplies from russia. what point does this make a difference in bringing russia to the negotiating table? jonathan: in the last 60 minutes and loan companies responding to this, tom would the bank out of italy, under strategic review. both wagons -- volkswagen halt

tom: that is april 3.athan: someone has just written in the geordies who come in their swim shorts. that is from a terminal subscriber. [laughter] from new york this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. u.s. officials are worried that russian president vladimir putin may lash out dangerously. they say putin's tendency when boxed in to escalate rather than back down. speculation is that putin might respond by using chemical or even nuclear battlefield weapons. the european union officials suspect china they try to soften the impact of sanctions imposed on russia. they say beijing may be ready to supply semiconductors and other tech hardware to moscow. china's potential influence on russia was a central issue in those talks in brussels. canada says it will help nations trying to shift away from russian energy by increasing oil and gas exports. the canadian resources minister said energy producers can b

tom: it barely describes it. the market is moving out of the headlines out of ukraine. 10 year yield coming in, all the sudden i'm looking for the 32, under 2%. markets are reacting to the headlines out of ukraine. jonathan: i am looking at the front end of the u.s. as we fade out more rate hikes. tom: 3:00 p.m. new york time after the surveillance nap, swiss franc stronger to 103. we have been watching the 10 year real yield it indicates world slowdown, particularly in europe. jonathan: that convoy heading towards kyiv has everyone's attention. tom: there is a video out of keefe -- kyiv, refugee maps postulated are extraordinary. the convoy with the length and steady movement, it has it at 15 miles out of kyiv. jonathan: depressing going at the pictures. lisa: how is vladimir putin going to exit the stage without causing more damage on ukraine and that seems to be the feeling at the same time the ukraine army is putting up good resistance. jonathan: the banks pulling back, even though they don't actually have to

tom: let's move on.ing to do something we haven't talked much about, which is the refugees. i believe the number was 600,000 and then one million, and i believe i see numbers in excess of 2 million. this is something julie norman has studied for years. she is the codirector on the university college london and she joins us today. what is the number one thing we got wrong about refugees? julia: many things we get wrong, but first and foremost is why people are fleeing and where they are fleeing. this is a different refugee flow than in the past, much faster. what is unclear is the long-term implications. we know people are going across the borders and will need long-term shelter. this is what we need to step up with this. the eu has been first and foremost trying to get temper a status and visas here the u.k. has been much slower -- visas. the u.k. has been much slower. tom: it seems so much larger than the hungarian revolution of the 1950's. which institution do you look to to provide leadership or is a

anyway, guys, back to you, tom. tom: you are doing great.with las vegas sands right now. romaine: las vegas sands, we are seeing a lot of weakness because of concerns about the crackdown. tom: he's running the boards. it is the dog's full. the close this afternoon, you will see the boards on time. megan greene has put together an exceptionally thoughtful and transit lentic essays on economies. she now has to confront war. she is the global chief economist at kroll, but far more at chatham house, and truly our transatlantic source. i want to discuss today germany, and at the bottom you go all patrick o'brien on me, napoleonic wars, and you say time is of the essence. what is the time is of the essence for the new german government? megan: i think for the new german government, time is of the essence mostly applies to the politics to what they will be a plan, with respect to the economy and the conflict between russia and ukraine. by that i refer to the policy between fiscal and monetary policy. the ecb came out pretty hawkish, accelerating th

tom: look at the dot plot. jonathan: you want it gone. tom: it is not going to work. jonathan: you think they want to point out a forecast today? tom: i defer to mr. mckee on this. i think many people, solid phd's at the fed would kill to walk away from the silliness of the dot plot. jonathan: special coverage of the fed on tv and radio coming up later. team coverage starts right now with annmarie hordern in washington. what are we looking for? anne-marie: it is going to be incredibly emotional, president zelensky hoping to move congress. when he spoke to european leaders, it was so emotional, his translator choked up. in canada he was trying to implore canadians, lawmakers to really feel and understand what is going on, on the ground in kyiv. he said could you imagine bombs going over vancouver? the issue is the administration does not want to do a no-fly zone. potentially he can move some lawmakers to put pressure on the administration to get those polish jets over the border. tom: there are headlines coming in the atlantic and the united states and united kingdom b

tom: i didn't know that.begins this morning and we will have to see and talk about that with our guests coming up. an important interview is a summary of where you are and where we are. we have the head of research that edf with a wonderful focus on commodities. i want to go to an emotion you have in your note which is this gyration. it's the field, we will feel less rich. what is the out come of feeling less rich? >> [indiscernible] tom: we've got some audio problems here and we will work on that. i was looking at her work and not only the feeling of less rich and what it means but she focused on the shocking amount of sunflower oil coming from ukraine and russia. sunflower oil has moved out to 15-15 over eight double. -- over a double. i don't know if you use it but it's awfully important. jonathan: it accounts for about 80% of global exports and they come from russia and ukraine. the energy store is another point. gas is more and more expensive over the last few months. let's try hooking up with our guest

jonathan: thanks for that, tom. where were you taking that conversation? tom: that is a huge deal. jonathan: was this related to the federal reserve and chairman powell? tom: it is. they all took the sat. jonathan: ok. futures are down one third. in a moment, we get the adp report. we will bring you that anton's sat score. -- and tom's sat score. this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, i am lisa mateo. the kremlin says there have been no breakthrough talks with ukraine. work has to be done after a meeting in turkey. skeptical members of nato are evaluating whether russians promise scale back military operations is a turning point or a tactical shift. germany has triggered an emergency plan to brace for a potential russian gas cutoff. the issue, president vladimir putin insist that gas should be paid for in rubles. european countries call that a breach of contract. putin is striking back after the eu came up with a plan to cut dependency on russian industry by two thirds this year. tesla found a way to dodge the global crisis in nichols. a critica

tom: it is mr.believe in about two, maybe three hours, and to me that is a really important meeting if mr. blinken is trying to get the blessing of europe for the united states to act unilaterally or maybe with britain to limit the russian oil. to me, macron is really trying to fit in here. jonathan: the french aren't going without the germans. the germans are saying no. tom: i agree with that. but it is almost like a blessing to me. the fact is there are allies, and mr. biden has made a major theme from the moment of his inauguration in recommitting to the dialogue the allies that we did not see with mr. trump. jonathan: the events of last week have made this decision more easy than it was a week ago. at least, i don't think it is an easy decision. just in relative terms, you've now got lined up public opinion, you've got corporations prepared to do it because many of them are already doing it. you've got congress on your side, a that partisan effort in washington, -- a bipartisan effort in washing

tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a most even for monday for you on radio and television. it is simple. we begin to measure yield up, price down, and a bond bear market. jonathan: some big losses through the treasury market. the spread between twos intends in single digits earlier this morning. right now, 14 basis points. tom: you wonder when that shift is. wait a minute, let's check price. i think we are doing that now, and i think there is a sea change with the correlation into central banks looking at currency, the litmus paper of the global system. jonathan: dollar-yen through 125. we are starting to figure out which central banks will do what this year. may be a japanese yen that as a whole lot weaker. the federal reserve is ready to go big time. they need to do something about inflation. the bank of england seems to have a much more balanced view on the trade-off between growth and inflation. i hear from governor bailey, what i hear when he speaks is a man that has a much lower confidence level about the outlook

tom: the spreads are coming in flatter and there is the gloom of recession but i would correlate it out to foreign-exchange dynamics. there is some important discussion of yen and what it means for em. jonathan: i know you hate the parlor game but what is consensus now. tom: i have no idea. bill dudley published this morning and every other academic has a linear who asian step at the backend is an epsilon symbol. that is the uncertainty out there within the system. the epsilon is off the chart. jonathan: a hard landing is virtually inevitable says bill dudley. lisa: an increasing number of tinkers are saying you're seeing a different sentiment in the market which is what is the fed's instrument to transmit their policy to slow demand. has that weakness been priced into a market that is continuing to be dependent on the strong consumer? jonathan: we are still talking about talks but this time in turkey between ukraine and russia. with -- what does the market gain from those talks? lisa: peo

tom: this is so important.he key phrase is what i mentioned before on demand destruction, it is a substitution effect, not oranges or apples, but of labor. mr. sankey is correct that in a constrained economy, you are up against constraints that are on budget -- that are unbudgable. the blended bloomberg commodity index, which is very good mass, i would say not third world as much, we are up 34% on that index off of year-end. what is frightening is the oil component of that in the gold component are like, you go ok, great. the wheat component is a paltry 4%. in so much of the world, that is not the case. that is the kind of tensions we are seeing. jonathan: how does the supply-side respond? it is more difficult than you think. lisa: frankly, there's the issue of whether they can because a lot of the opec nations, forget about domestic production the u.s. is discussing right now, but opec nations can't even keep up with the targets right now, which really raises an issue of how high can prices go at a time when p

tom: very good.onathan: i am pleased he is there, tom, and one of us has done some reading for the federal reserve tomorrow. tom: that's good. michael mckee getting ready for tomorrow's meeting. very important, these headlines on sanctions. jonathan: just working through a statement from the u.k. foreign office. 370 new sanctions over russia's invasion of ukraine. dissensions hit vladimir putin's key political allies, according to this statement. we will do some work on that. tom: right now, this is a really important conversation, kathy bostjancic has been doing this a long time, now at oxford economics, their chief financial economist. you look for a higher sustained inflation. this chairman powell do with 8.7% inflation? kathy: good morning. i think he's got to stay pretty hawkish in his policy stance. they are only going to go 25 basis points tomorrow. i think if it were not for the upper cavort in ukraine, we would be looking at 50 basis points. they have made inflation their top priority, and i

tom: it is on diplomacy. while the diplomacy is going on, including the headline we got come up to 100,000 fleeing war, it is an exceptional blast on the black sea right now. the exception will video, the ukraine navy says the ship blown up. the headline to me is the war continues. jonathan: three issues at play here. one is combat, the risk of chemical warfare i russia. two is china, their role in all of this. three, the energy dependency of europe on russia and what the u.s. can help them do. over the next couple of days, can the agree on something big? tom: those are three disparate parts. the chemical warfare issue is germane because right now, correct me if i am wrong, and the last 48 hours, there's been constructive ukraine war news. you wonder what that means for mr. putin. jonathan: keep an eye on the headlines as they come in. vladimir putin requesting that the europeans pay for russian gas in rubles. kailey: we saw the pushback starting yesterday when italy said it is not inclined to do so. now pola

tom: dovetail your work with mark mccormack.been wonderful on strong dollar, resilient dollar, and the events have shown him to be very correct. with euro chris -- we have euro swissie at the precipice. link those worlds together. priya: i think what the market is worried about is that the fed has to respond to inflation. as much as they want to be humble and nimble, it's inflation -- if inflation is that hi, do they raise rates? that is going to tighten financial conditions. plus, we are living through a war that also tightens financial conditions, and the effect of financial conditions on the economy is very hard to measure. what the market is saying is that the fed may overdo it, but i would caution the market a bit on that. i think we are absolutely going to get a few hikes, but can the fed pause once they get rates to 1%, 1.5%, and reassess and really see if the economy is responding to financial conditions? they might be tolerant of higher inflation as long as it is decelerating. you talk about the jobs report not being th

tom: it is not comcast. there is a point where the roberts family and comcast decided to make a determined rotation to a more normal income statement and balance sheet. i am not indicating that from amazon. but yes, it could be a change for the company. lisa: you raise a good point. there is a shift that is going on with amazon. we have seen it with the underperformance of some of the big tech stocks. does that mean they are done with the bigger kinds of moves in terms of strategy? jonathan: typically we spend a lot of time on that but that is not the top story. the top story, talks between the ukrainian and foreign ministers in turkey. this is what the ukrainian foreign minister had said. >> we offered a 24 hour cease-fire, we did not make progress on this. it seems that there are other decision-makers for this matter in russia. we agreed to continue efforts to seek a solution. jonathan: jack fitzpatrick, i want to come to you. can you run us through what we are looking for after the stocks in turkey today?

tom: and we have an update on the military front.llery's saying it has no plans to take part in the conflict in ukraine, saying that russia has not asked bit to take part militarily in that conflict. we will give you more when we get it. the ruble has stabilized in offshore trading after a plunge as much as 30% the day before. we weigh the impact of sections against russia and moscow's cover -- countermeasure p -- countermeasures. >> the russian economy is facing an abnormal situation and the bank of russia will use any necessary tools flexibly. tom: let's bring in john hardy, saxo bank's head of fx strategy. is anything going to work at this point? john: that may not be up to the russian central bank because the issue is to which degree the sanctions will mean that the russian central bank is able to mobilize its foreign reserves. their fate is not necessarily in their hands. what happens next, i have no idea but the pressure is going to be maximum and the longest reality on the ground. other than that, your guess is as good as mine

tom: let's do the data here. leslie venture murray -- leslie vinjamuri will give us a view in a moment. right now, what is your data? jonathan: we've got to work this one out because this is difficult. corporations are making the call to pull back from russian energy. shell a great exhibit of that early this moaning. the germans do not support that effort. where does the of adminstration go? that is going to be our focus through today, through this week, until we get a final decision from the white house. tom: our european team focused on the secretary of state traveling from estonia to france as we speak. lisa shalett is the chief investment officer at morgan stanley wealth management. what have you changed in your outlook given the 13 days war in ukraine? lisa s: that is an interesting question because because it is moving at lightning speed, and markets have done so along with it. what i think has staggered us the most is that for all of that volatility, we are not in that different of a place on the u.s. stoc

jonathan: i've been following it, tom. tom: i follow wheat off of the london metals exchange.ith the explosion yesterday and today, it shows those linkages in. will dissensions work? -- willie sanctions work? -- will the sanctions work? jonathan: this list, i think it is important for everyone to hear how much we have already seen from corporate america isolating russia. apple product sales, nike online sales, dell product sales, ups shipments, releases from hollywood, disney, warner, gm shipments, boeing pilot training -- that is important for obvious reasons -- visa network access, mastercard access. this is building hour-by-hour. lisa: which make you wonder, how much freedom is this giving governments to make the move in name if markets and companies are doing it already and getting ahead of them and basically creating a pathway for them to do it without that much more disruption. jonathan: there is a huge a esg question here which i think we will explore more in the coming weeks and months. you and i are on the same page about esg, some of the hypocrisy around that convers

tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, television, we welcome all of you across the station and worldwide to an extraordinary week. the news flow in the last five minutes, extraordinary. i want to go to this, and about 2.5 hours, nightfall in ukraine. jonathan: that convoy heading toward the ukrainian capital gets your attention. they have stepped up the invasion in the last 24 hours, the attack has intensified. according to interfax, the russian operation will continue. tom: it is across all of eastern ukraine. we will not go into the details right now, but the protests continue, including at the un's human rights commission, they stand up and walk out on a remote lavrov. jonathan: the foreign ministers say they have asked china to put pressure on russia to end the war. tom: let's fold that into the markets. italian inflation, moments ago, german inflation, five point 5% versus 5.4. this is an inflation for war. jonathan: yes, equities are lower by .8%. crude is higher through 100. the move you are seeing in ita

tom: this is the standard deviations.ok at the percent movement of roughly 20 days, the standard deviation. here is the answer, we move from two standard deviations of many indices and four standard deviations, i call that a medical chart. these are like medical charts in a hospital. jonathan: crude higher by more than 6%, approaching seven percentage points higher on wti, one point 23. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> volatility we are seeing is something that gives people pause. >> you are dealing with growth slowing and inflation going up. >> we will see price surprises continuing for quite some time. >> it puts investors in a difficult position that we can't really look to interest rates falling. >> the market is saying that the fed may overdo it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: crude absolutely surging. from new york city, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures off

george: you bring up a great point, tom.ixed income has been rattled this year, a seismic shock has hit the system and it is both financial and political. the whole morning session has been all about politics. when we look at capital markets, you have seen roughly a trillion dollar loss working its way through the system. that is a marked to market loss and the numbers are bigger than that when you inc. about the other parts of the economy connected -- when you think about other parts of the economy connected. credit conditions is a real challenge for bond investors one credit conditions start to tighten, risk premiums go up, default start to rise. the challenge is for the fixed income investors are faced with about certainty of payment. we have two challenges right now, one is through the marked to market loss working its way through the system and the second is the fed and the fed is in the position to start raising rates. we have two major headwinds that are facing fixed income investors. what has happened over the last t

tom: good morning, everyone. one day before and inflation report, the news today away from the politics and the war is a better tape. jonathan: up 1.9%. we got a bounce on russian crude in america. now russia reacts, kind of. they said they would ban the export of some raw materials and goods, and we are still waiting on a list from the russian government. tom: it brings us back to the war in ukraine. we have to remember the overlay is a horrific set of events in the nation. jonathan: a humanitarian crisis. this morning, a veiled threat from the spokesperson for the russian president. russia may rethink energy commence after sanctions. will they, and to what degree? that is a risk on the table now. as we start to think about so-called peak sections, i don't thing we have got started when it comes to russia and others. tom: what is so important here is the allied response and the individual response. the secretary of the united kingdom defense talking about missiles. lisa: there has certainly been a more united al