pharaoh -- jonathan ferro has never done that. i've broken a few shovels too, getting too aggressive. lisa: that shocking. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. ♪ >> things up -- the fed does want to speed things up in a meaningful fashion. >> what the federal reserve is trying to grapple with is how quickly to get back to neutral. >> it is all about the fed mandate. >> the fed has made it clear they are playing catch-up. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: one more day. we are almost there. long weekend in america coming up. futures up 0.4%. for new york city this morning, good morning. whipsawed by headli

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: the mood improves for now. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market higher by more than 1% on the nasdaq, up 0.8% on the s&p. tom: 19 on the vix would be a big deal back to january 14, but right now, 20.73 on an early morning vix. i would note nasdaq puts it on in the last hour, up 1.1%. jonathan: how big a deal will it be if governor hochul backs down from that mask mandate later today? tom: it is a huge secondary story on what governors are doing. i know it devolves down to counties. we will see what new york city does in this case, but it is a bigger deal than people are putting on. jonathan: it is the conclusion of the last few weeks, moving on from omicron. lisa: are we there yet? how will we know we are there yet? here's your big chance. you can tell everybody, jon ferro. jonathan: i am not going to do that. lisa: i

tom keene, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro. tom: i was watching curling. onathan: don't get me started on the different platforms. that drives me nuts. tom: canada-norway, it was good. i don't remember. jonathan: futures down 1/3 on the nasdaq. tom: that's like me at 9:00 a.m. jonathan: you and i should commentate on curling on radio. that's what it's going to sound like. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i am ritika gupta. today's report on inflation in the u.s. could push the federal reserve to its largest rate hike in more than two decades. the consumer price index is out at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. 7.2% annual increase may pressure the fed to consider its first half percentage point hike since 2000. eight university of michigan economist will become the first black female to lead one of the federal reserve's 12 districts. susan collins will be the next president and a rotating voter on the central bank's policy. russia and belarus are beginning their largest joint military drills in years today. they are being watched closely by the u.s. and europe amid tensions over

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. some big moves in this bond market. tom: big moves and we really recalibrate. i nailed that jobs report. i got that right. jonathan: you nailed the cpi report as well. tom: what we know is we are adjusting in real time. you've got bears and bulls and they are far apart. jonathan: let's look to italy as well. we've gone from -17 basis points in the open last monday on a two-year, deposited 46 in the blink of an eye. tonight, up another 30 basis points. does that get the attention of president lagarde? tom: kailey leinz was talking that up. i look at italy, it has the economy about the size of texas and it is a bellwether. explain to our audience in america why italy matters. jonathan: it has had the support of the ecb for a long time and that support is going to get pulled away over the next 12 months if the guidance from the ecb is anything to go by. tom: commercial banking in europe is going to be fascinating. what is the one day when negative yields become positive yields? jonathan: even the most hawkish member of the

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.5% on the s&p. it is claims and counterclaims. tom: we got headlines out moments ago. you see those first on bloomberg. it is simple, russia defense ministry just talking about belarus drills and troop movements. this is not what we are waiting for from lavrov and putin, but some words from russia. jonathan: the u.s. disputing russian claims that there has been a true pullback. russia disputing u.s. claims that there has been a troop buildup. 10 year yields down by three basis points, a brief break of 2% again. tom: we are seeing some movers. we discussed five minutes ago oil does not give us the kind of haven support you would expect. i would really single in on gold , which is sort of a new region, higher gold prices. jonathan: we've got to highlight earnings as well.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue.>> this is the scenario the fed was concerned about. >> this is what you did not want to see. >> what is the fed going to do from here? >> weather 7.3% or 7.5%, they will go and go hard. >> they have been debating whether they will do it in measured 25 basis point increments. >> i would like them to just get on with it. let's

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and jonathan abramowitz -- and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. a dark day for europe. tom: a dark day italy coverage from our coverage including in moscow. what is extraordinary to me is the reporting that the markets continued to deteriorate at this moment. what we did not see is shocked down and recovery. jonathan: let's start with president biden's words, the allies and partners will respond to the union -- in the united and decisive way. this how will they respond? tom: sanctions but also there will be needing discussions about what the military response will be and that will be delicate. the baltic states as you mentioned yesterday to the north and down to odessa, attacked today on the black sea by russians. it is why geography of an eastern or western front. jonathan: we can work through the equity markets. crude is down triple digits. lisa: this is the big concern. people were expecting to maybe avoid an oil shock. today it is about how bad the

--jonathan ferro.e bond market, yields are higher through the curve come up three basis points on tends to 19468. the euro slightly negative, euro-dollar 11431. as we round out on the international scene, a serious degree of diplomacy taking place in washington dc and moscow, ukraine. backing off now, down 1.7%. tom: angela stent for piercing interview yesterday, putin's world is definitive. i want to point out the 10 year real yield, evolving from the negative statistics to -0.46 right now. i exaggerate, but nevertheless a negative yield than the real yield trend. on the pandemic on confusion on masks, dr. amesh adalja joins us. on san francisco, california mask mandate is now going to go county by county. should we expect that nationwide , there'll be a city by city, county by county debate about indoor mask protocol? dr. adalja: i do think it is going to move from the state governor mention to each individual county or minister paoletti making that decision -- eunice the paoletti -- municipla ity ma

from new york, alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, and jonathan ferro. taking a long weekend, skipping the inflation data that an hour from now. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: live from new york city, here's the price action one hour away from cpi in america. futures down 0.1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, is down by 0.14%. the russell moving lower by a little more than 0.1%. we start to eat away at those losses as the sessions progressed. a big two day winning streak. we break that a little bit going into cpi. things can change a lot of 60 minutes. twos's, tens, and 30's. on twos, 1.3 686%. very close to 1.37%. we pulled back by three basis points. 66 on tens. came very close to getting that 1.97% a little earlier in the week. then we pulled back up to that really strong demand in the auction yesterday. the 10 year yield coming in about a basis point or so. similar move on 30's. big question for the fed, how does this cpi print set the tone for the march meeting and may be shaped the year beyond that? the ecb and the boj, switch up the boa

from new york city, jonathan ferro.own a quarter of 1%. ♪ >> i think the equity market is a little bit of reprieve here. >> are called this year has always been more subdued market returns. >> in the u.s., standup, take about. >> the opportunity for this year will be more outside the u.s. >> i don't know that anyone prospers in an inflationary environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa ramos, and jonathan ferro. tom: most interesting

this is "bloomberg's the open" with jonathan ferro. ve from new york we begin with the big issue, a synchronized global market selloff. >> if it was just the bond market, we are adjusting higher in yield. >> the benefit. >> the new regime underway. >> the environment is one of tightening policy. >> as a relates to the bond market. >> when you see these types of moves. >> the fed is going to overdo it. >> there are limitations as to how high these yields can go. >> is the fed and global bank pulling back? >> it will cause challenges.

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. : from new york city, we begin with the big issue. geopolitics grip financial markets. >> ukraine russia tension. >> we do not know how far that goes. >> the russia ukraine headlines. >> will affect the markets near-term. >> nervousness in markets. >> increased uncertainty and volatility. >> there is not enough conviction, not enough hedging ability. >> this will be what happens to energy prices. >> around

jonathan: lisa abramowicz and tom keene with jonathan ferro. coming up at 9:00 a.m. ill catch up with jonathan golub of credit suisse and why this man still thinks is equity market goes north of 5000 on the s&p. jonathan: he has been resilient and constructive. looking forward to catching up with him. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world. russia has announced some of those troops involved in drills have started returning to their base. the military exercises had raised u.s. and european concerns about a possible attack on ukraine. the problem has did -- has denied it is planning attack. atop diplomat leaves the nuclear agreement with iran is "in sight." i ran once western powers to remove sections on the economy. -- there are no plans for a citywide lockdown to bring the number of cases back to zero. hong kong is said to use more hotels is isolated facilities. elon musk has said he gave about $5.7 million of tesla shares to charity. the donation was one of the biggest ever. a large charitable donation would help reduce

and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro.ermany, yield higher, crude lower by 3.3%, t.k.. tom: the bounce across 24 hours, what i will say in the last 20 minutes for pros glued to this across equities, bonds, currencies, commodities this devolves off of headlines and i'm looking at rush out right now. they are literally coming out in real time and we are reacting to this. ukraine recognizing russia violates -- that gets you going. jonathan: and then the reaction from boris johnson, some of the headlines from him reacting to the last couple of days, looking closer at ownership of russian companies, the uk's the epicenter of some of that discussion. we think that russia is prepared to move at any time. we've heard that from the administration over the last few weeks. seeing russian openness to conversations. the final headline seems to be what is driving things at the moment. the optics, the style, the approach seems to be improving. i think what we would like to see his substance going forward. tom: we'll wait for germany and

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: risk aversion in the markets. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 on the s&p. tom: the vix going to the 30 level. we had a 31 handle moments ago. the global metric right now being brent crude. we got up to 96, 94.72. jonathan: the last thing the economy needs is another leg higher in energy prices. tom: i did the math with matt, kailey, and dani. the over $100 a barrel -- it's $118 a barrel, the average price , so that gives you a much to look hold -- to look to hold onto. jonathan: welcome back. lisa: i heard i missed nothing. if you look at yields, they were almost the same place they were when i left. it seems like it was an incredibly eventful couple of days. the interesting thing about oil prices are some of the projections about what that means for global growth, whether it is mike wilson, who is becoming known as a perma-bear, even though he is not, $100 a barrel wou

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: can we burn the masks? good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. futures up .7%. are we moving on from omicron? tom: you see that and may be in the market as well. the governor has tough decisions to make and i believe a wednesday announcement on losing the masks indoors in new york may be where we are at. jonathan: the democrats are finding a different variant. it is called the midterms. tom: i don't agree -- sorry, i do agree. jonathan: make your mind up. tom: i do agree. yes, i like tang better than orangeina, moving on. what i read out of san francisco is that it is to do with due vault county. i'm worried about what are they going to do about mask mandates on 59th street? jonathan: lisa, schools is what you are worrying about? lisa: in two weeks that expires. is it politics, the midterm elections that is the new variant, or is this a scientifically driven response? i find it fascinating th

. >> this is an extended edition of "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning to you. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. about 30 minutes into the session, we are down 1.5%. words you do not want to wake up to, war in europe. tom: there was a headline, russia invades ukraine, and it was more than an invasion. it was a multi-front invasion. the news flow extremely supple right now. i know we go to henry and moscow. what is important that henry in mustache henry in moscow. -- henry in moscow. jonathan: the president of the united states right now any meeting. we wait for the response. tom: we have lots of internal memos. we had one in washington sent to me. there were two camps at the white house. there needs to be singular action. you wonder, will there be that, and will it be coordinated? jonathan: the dark words of the russian president earlier today, bowing to "demilitarize" the country and replace its leaders. lisa: we are hearing reports of heavy fighting in several places. we are hearing of milit

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, we begin with thethe books on a message january. >> completely exhausted. >> volatility to start the year. >> this start intraday volatility. >> opportunities to reset portfolios. >> what are the underlying story lines the turning point. >> all options on the table. >> we had three hikes, now we are closer to five. >> bank of america

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan: she is full-time? i hope she is part-time. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan arrow. futures back 0.7%. tom: the nasdaq 100 down 16-ish %. maybe not as inflammatory as what everybody is waking up to. more important is the movement of two standard deviations. we are not at a correction, but negative 10% is negative 10%. jonathan: secretary blinken canceling his meeting with lavrov. what is next from here? tom: what is next is how will mr. payton respond -- mr. putin respond? the natural gas price based out of the netherlands is not what it was at the beginning of the year, but it is here to chile relevant -- usually elevated. jonathan: that address from the president yesterday, to defend freedom abroad. what are they going to do to offset this? a deal with iran? a tax holiday on gas? lisa: i am not getting a cohesive message. where is the cohesive message around domestic energy? what is the plan to move away from russian gas at a time when europe cannot make up for what

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: one more day. we are almost there. long weekend in america coming up. futures up 0.4%. for new york city this morning, good morning. whipsawed by headlines over the last couple of days. the latest headline driving this equity market, it meeting next week doing secretary blinken and mr. lavrov. tom: in the last hour, i really do think we got to get back to "surveillance" first principles, which is a total mystery of what 47 fed speakers will say in the next when he four hours. -- the next 24 hours. jonathan: can they set the tone? can they get hold of the narrative? president mr. talking about back loading rate hikes if we need to. president bullard saying let's frontload them. we need to right now. tom: i would suggest the mathematician from cleveland has immense respect for her steadiness. john williams is far more controversial in what he can say or do, particularly wrapped around where that term in her value is. it is wrapped around his core research, his acclaimed research.

lagarde can do is to slow down the process. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. facebook getting absolutely hammered in the premarket, taking down the nasdaq by more than 2%. we need to talk about the bank of england. they hike 25. some people want to even more than that. tom: for those in

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: payrolls 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p -0.25%. 125,000 for this payrolls morning. tom: i believe there is a number that has never been a greater fiction and that number. it is a movable feast south because of omicron. jonathan: and we have no idea if it is a plus sign or minus sign in front of that. that is how movable it is. tom: today you've got to look at wages because on this jobs day, i'm looking at one number on the bloomberg terminal that may be out to a new high, $82 $.94 on brent crude. jonathan: just look at the other central bank, the ecb. the more recent pivot in the last week. lisa: i'm surprised the market has not reacted more, despite the fact we have talked about the main reason that yields have shifted so low. yet we are not seeing an additional changing u.s. yields. jonathan: i

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: hello, february. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.25 percent on the s&p, leaving behind an ugly january. tom: really interesting. step away from it. when you are in triple leveraged all-cash, you can do that. i'm sorry, the recovery the last couple of days was pretty good. it was the way the nasdaq took the rebound, not even halfway back. i understand there was real carnage, but the vix this morning, 25.02. we were at 32 a cup of coffee ago. jonathan: that drawdown could have been so much worse. that was the move that closed out the month. you are still laser focused on the earnings. ups front and center this morning. tom: i think it is huge, bigger than the microsoft announcement the other day. we've got apple coming up against amazon on thursday. but fedex and ups are the backbone of the nation. everyone looks at them.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we are moving to belgium. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, did you see the news? belgium giving workers the option of a four-day workweek. still got to work your hours, but you do it over four instead of five, and you can turn off your so-called work devises without fear of reprisal and ignore messages from work. doesn't that sound brilliant? tom: i like it. i think it can be a format we can work with. i think maria tadeo is ace on this. tom: i imagine she gets -- jonathan: i imagine she gets relocated pretty quickly when she starts to offer four days. what do you think if the market changed to a four day week? lisa: i think a lot of people like it, but then a lot of people work a 50 day. jonathan: this market -- a fifth day. jonathan: this market unchanged. the data 90 minutes away. tom: it has been a real dearth of headlines out of ukraine today. that was certainly the mover yester

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. ur equity market just about in positive territory on s&p. the payrolls report drops next. jonathan: 10 seconds away from a highly unpredictable jobs report. futures up .1% on the s&p on the nasdaq up .8%. tends, 1.82. on 2, 1 .22. a selloff in the european debt market as we wait for the attention to shift from europe to a massive upside surprise in america. michael mckee. run me through this one. michael: i do not get this. 467,000, and that is a +, 400 67,000 jobs created or restored in january. there implement rate does go up to 4%. i would guess that is because more people came back -- the unemployment rate goes up to 4%. an astounding number given the fact that 125 was the forecast and there were people expecting -400,000. i am looking through all of this. mind to pick out a number. tom: this is been the biggest miss in history. take your time. michael: i'm wondering what the folks at adp are thinking. the labor force participation rate stays at 62.2%, although that had been 61.9%.

jonathan: live from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield.political tensions leading to the slowest week of the year. issuance fallen short of 17 billion euros after a number of deals were put on ice. in the u.s., high-grade bond sales hitting new highs. the largest offering coming from wells fargo. the u.s. junk bond market grinding to a halt after pricing in more than $9 billion this month, the slowest february since 2016. take a listen to what he had to say about may be a market that is not well priced. >> the bad news is i do think the beta in the market still has a way to go. but the dislocations are really becoming quite pronounced. what we are doing is relative value. definitely not diving into the pool here. i think this is a volatile time and we have not seen the repricing. jonathan: let's pick up on a couple of those points. we have not had the big shakeout. there is this comfort not in the left off or the pace of fed hikes, but the ultimate destination. it will be low and comfortable for investors. can we pick up on this idea that

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. m: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us on radio, on television. the message this morning within the quiet of the headlines, a bounce, a recovering set of markets. jonathan: yields are moving with it, so what do we have? yields are pushing higher again at the front end and right through the curve. your curve is flatter. twos-tens, 37. tom: it is going to be the focus with our guest in a matter of minutes. the curve flattening, deft and from 0 -- flattening, distant from zero, distant from inversion, but it is the rate of change, the speed we move. jonathan: let's talk about the speed. bank of america says seven. where does this top out, and what is more important, the pace or the destination? tom: we will have to see. i am on the ruble watch right now. 80.3 the ruble, a weaker ruble in the last hour. lisa abramowicz, what matters is the auction watch. fold the auction action this afternoon into curve flattening. lisa: it is the same point jon just made. what is the longer-t

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and john -- tom keene on a four-day week. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. it's about different nations with different sanctions. jonathan: it a different interpretation of events as well. i call recent russian action and amounting to a renewed russian invasion of the ukraine. will the u.s. use the same language? many people doubt that. the u.k. making their move. is that move proportional to the prime minister moments ago and three high net worth individuals? tom: help me out with a better market. small caps, a little green. the bear market started with a gentleman from germany under the pipeline and the baltic sea. jonathan: there is a turnaround in the equity market. futures down about .1%. 93.60 w ti on brent. very close to 100 earlier. 99 then backing away. the west is not targeting the three state owned russian banks that really matter for the oil, gas, and other commodity trades. vtb, sberbank, and gazprom bank. and they are not getting close. >> we did see sanctions in the family the t

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ve from new york city we begin with the big issue. geopolitical jitters. >> people are nervous. >> general tolerance for risk is muted right now. >> project way with ukraine headline. >> geopolitical risk around russia and ukraine. >> replacing covid is our -- as our worry du jour. >> if russia does invade 50 pbs is off the table. >>

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. takei tends at 195. tom: yields are on the move, this is a must listen and watch for all of you. i'm going to look at the real yield, it is moving. he mentioned the two year yield, we are in a 2% 10 year watch. jonathan: 195 on tens, we started the year at about 150 on a 10 year. what gets your attention now, the level or speed? tom: the rate change. we are going to go all in this hour. we had a big event friday, i got it wrong, we all got it wrong. it proceeds into tuesday, that is the headline. jonathan: we've got a big event thursday, cpa around the corner. lisa: the significance of this more -- moment, he of a concern that percolates over, then people come in and they brought the dip. you are not seen people come in and buy the dip when it comes to treasuries. that is significant at a time when it is really yields increasing into not infl

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. from new york city we begin with the big issue. whipsawed by headlines. >> the headlines have been flowing fast and furious. >> markets are clearly up and down. >> struggling to connect the dots and understand how bad this is. >> development in russia and ukraine. >> this is a big airpark bit of uncertainty. -- a big air pocket of uncertainty. >> if russia does invade ukraine all bets are off. >> another region the federal be careful. >>

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. from new york city, we begin with the big issue. a bright green light for the fed. >> what is the fed going to do from here? >> the number one issue is inflation. >> the fed is being dictated by inflation. >> whether the fed goes 50 in march. >> they will only do it if the market allows them to. >> member the dual mandates of the fed. >> lower unemployment and lower inflation. >> that is the wife and kids. investors are the side

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ve from new york city, we begin with the big issue. moving on from omicron. >> the economy is shaking off this pandemic. >> you're starting to see people come into the labor force. >> jobs report. >> you do not see the expected omicron impact. >> the economy is strong, the consumer is strong. >> the environment is one of tightening. >> rates are going up and the economy can support it. >> from pandemic to endemic. >>

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: i am just here to see tom's impression of someone curling for the olympics again. can we do that again? tom: never done it. [laughter] jonathan: futures down 0.1% on the s&p. we are negative on the nasdaq 100, too. lisa: look at those bond yields in italy. the question of the morning is how far will the ecb allow yields to go up, and addition to the movements that tom was just doing. but where is the put of the central banks? you see yields move pretty violently upward. jonathan: up 13 on tens. it adds to a move from last week. tom: there's is a real mystery here. i go back to marvin good come from a controversial paper at the jackson hole meeting years ago. we've got the right guest coming up in moments on this. what is going to be the seachange on the shift from negative rates to positive rates within europe, and frankly worldwide? jonathan: president lagarde speaks a little later. your focus, what is it? tom: my focus is how she will readjust off of what you mentioned last w

this is "the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ michael: -- jonathan: we begin with the bait issue.ng of the end of easy money. >> we have a new regime underway. >> where at a turning point. >> monetary policy is tightening. >> we have largely priced in a more aggressive fed. >> they confirmed tapering would end on schedule in march. >> talking about five or six or seven hikes. >> the fed is further behind and they will have to catch up. >> they have a difficult

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. russia invading ukraine. we will bring you the headlines and the sources of those headlines. the headline of the last 30 minutes from ukraine's border guard service, the russian military vehicles have breached into the give region -- the kiev region. tom: the story is changing minute by minute. the movement for kiev is going quicker than anyone anticipated. jonathan: things escalated overnight. tom: in the bloomberg world, and we will address that through the morning, but also in the international relations world, i am struck by a tweet moment to by agent when you know -- by a gentle menu know far better than i do, david davis -- a gentleman you know far better than i do, david davis in the u.k. parliament, saying this is a war with the west. lisa: i was really struck by the lines of people, the cars leaving kiev come the idea that poland and all of the other regional countries are preparing for an onslaught of refugees as people t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: stocks up, yields up. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up by 0.4%. the bounce fades a bit. the nasdaq up by 0.7%. correction territory at the close yesterday. tom: particularly currencies, look at renminbi strengthening out on strong yuan. the number i look at on the screen, 36.1 72. we have legitimate curve flattening this morning jonathan: south of 40 basis points as we go to this meeting next month. does that shape the views of anyone on the fomc? tom: we don't know what that meeting is going to be like right now. massive uncertainty. i don't mean that in a negative way, but massive uncertainty. they've got the jobs report and the inflation report, and frankly, the ism's early in the month. i can't believe i'm saying that. jonathan: it took me about 10 years, but i've got you on board to look at the ism. march 10 through the next cpi print. lisa:lisa: how important is i

from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.is bloomberg you real yield. it's time for the final spread, the week ahead. china pmi's come in on monday, followed by trade balance on tuesday. rb i rate decision on wednesday. plus, fed speak. a ton of feds through the week. that's 50 basis point pression -- question could get very interesting, going into the big one on thursday, with cpi and initial jobless claims. just briefly on cpi, your estimate, the median right now 7.3%. the previous read was 7%. i'm looking at a range of estimates that have already come through. we've got about 25 estimates so far. 7.3% is the median, 7.6% is the high, the low is 7%. let's get to the rapidfire round, and let's start right there. give me a number for next week on cpi. just give me a number. kathy? kathy: i'll give you 7%. jonathan: krishna? krishna: 8%. jonathan: 50 or 25 basis point on the fed? 50 or 25? krishna: it's 25, but i think it may change over time. jonathan: i think someone was calling to tell you 50. michael? krishna: 25. --michae

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. from new york we begin with the big issue. big tech bouncing back. >> the maker cap tech companies. >> stunning results. >> alphabet isabelle whether for the industry. >> that is bringing comfort back to that port of the industry. >> going from a trifecta of tail wind. >> we are at a turning point. >> a sea change in terms of fed policy. >> there are dips worth buying. >> it requires a more careful look. jonathan:

trading, this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. live from your city, we begin with the big issue, a lot has changed. ukraine officials arriving for a high stakes meeting. resident zelensky is skeptical, saying i don't believe that much in the meeting. let them try. i will use every chance to stop the war. western allies are sanctioning moscow's central bank. the u.s. could go further. >> we want to take every step to maximize themp

and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. tom: this volatility harkens back to 19 45 and we will have that coverage all throughout the morning. the talks are there. i know marie is better briefed on that than i am that i would say the real talk of will belarus to the north of ukraine, will they enter this war in support of mr. putin? jonathan: step-by-step, the west is cutting banks from swift. any other day bp dumping rosneft would be the top story. >> how much the world has changed as the western allies gave the sign they are willing to incur some wrath on their own people in order to go hard financially. jonathan: what we have seen -- tom: what surprises me and we will do a data check and all, what surprises me is what has not moved. there are so many things that have not moved. jonathan: the central bank of russia has moved 20% from 9.5. lisa: they have prohibited people from trying to transfer foreign currency to rubles. all of these things, that they are trying to intervene gives the feeling of an issue of liquidity. jo

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. february. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.25 percent on the s&p, leaving behind an ugly january. tom: really interesting. step away from it. when you are in triple leveraged all-cash, you can do that. i'm sorry, the recovery the last couple of days was pretty good.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. are moving to belgium. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tk, did you see the news? belgium giving workers the option of a four-day workweek. still got to work your hours, but i

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p -0.25%. 125,000 for this payrolls morning. tom: i believe there is a number that has never been a greater fiction and that number. it is a movable

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. kailey leinz in for 'bramo today on a most different thursday. in 30 minutes, the nation receives an inflation report. jonathan: the range of estimates anywhere from 7% to 7.6% at the high-end. 7.2% is the median. two-year yields pulled back a little bit, close to the highs of the last 12 months. tom: the quality of the conversations as we see in the opening, rebecca patterson, the pros are looking forward, and it is foggy. as lisa shalett says, it is hazy out there. jonathan: march, the fed is ready to move. somewhere, maybe they keep going. after that, who knows? tom: kailey leinz joining us today, giving perspective on 1982. the grateful dead, 1982, alabama get away with their opening song. it was great. whether it is alabama, washington, this nation is gripped by higher inflation. kailey: if we do get an upside surprise, how to the message around inflation? it is not reading through yet. it is something that has consistently dodged this presidency. tom:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are lower by 0.7% on the s&p. we are staying on top of the story as it develops. russian forces closing on ukraine's capital. tom: developing on multiple fronts. we have many reports of sirens were a lot of the western media is.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. facebook getting absolutely hammered in the premarket, taking down the nasdaq by more than 2%. we need to talk about the bank of england. they hike 25. some people want to even more than that. tom: for those in america, this is really important. it is across the atlantic, but this links right into the fed meeting in march. jonathan: some voting for a 50 basis point hike. i am not sure many expected that this morning. lisa: there's a hawkish tone on beginning the unwind of quantitative easing. danny blanchflower saying they should not do that, of course. we are seeing a move that is pretty strong in the u.k. two-year yield as they climbed to some of the highest levels in a long time. i just wonder what the goal is, given that so much of this is from energy. jonathan: on the corporate bond purchase pr

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 in the s&p. tom: equities, bonds, currencies , most information on the bond market, and i am looking at the 2's/10's, flattening is en vogue. jonathan: curve flatter. goldman this morning saying go to cash, just a little bit. i want to go through this call. still overweight equities and -- downgrading credit to underweight over three months and 12 months. cash becoming an asset class again. tom: everyone recalibrating. the year starts in march -- with a vengeance do you see that this year as well. i will not go over the strategy changes, but you will see a ton of people are just. jonathan: geopolitics at the epicenter of this for many people. lisa: if the year is just starting in march, i do not want to be here -- it will be the longest year in history. the geopolitics to me, it is interesting to see the risk aversion. bonds are big. what is the message, the idea that long bonds when people are talking about entrenched runaway inflation? the flip last week is indicative of a market that people can

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and john -- tom

tom keene, gma, jonathan ferro. futures down .6%. futures down .8% on the nasdaq. the move yesterday holding. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a bet that the federal reserve will raise rates by 175 basis points by the end of the year, coming after inflation running at its highest rate in four decades. goldman sachs expects the fed to raise rates seven times, up from the five, the economy expanded last year the most since world war ii. gdp up 7.5%. this is despite shrinking .2% in december because of the omicron break. more fallout from a protest blocking the border from the u.s. to canada. spacex founder elon musk says he is confident his new starship will be ready to launch this year at an event with the spacecraft providing a dramatic background he may get regulatory approval in a couple of months. he envisions one-day day it will carry people to mars. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ pres. biden: i am going to wo