joining us now is ann selzer, we know your time is really valuable, particularly on a day that the poll comes out, thank you so much for being with us. >> my pleasure. >> let me ask you first of all if i got any of that the wrong way around or if you see any of that differently than the way i laid it out for our audience. >> picture-perfect. >> okay, so, you obviously have a sterling reputation for your ability to poll iowa. you have been doing it for a long time. what is your top line take away from your final poll before election day? were you as surprised as everybody else by the broad strokes of what you found? >> i don't see how anybody would look at those numbers and the history in iowa in the past eight, 12 years, and think that these numbers could have been foretold. we did see some of this movement toward harris in our september poll coming out of the june poll, which still had joe biden at the top of the ticket. kamala harris joined the ticket and picked up 14 points, reducing that margin to just four points, so there was certainly some momentum there, we saw some enthusiasm t

even if ann selzer was off by eight points and trump wins iowa by five that's a bad day. that's a bad omen for the trump campaign. what we're looking at is whatst actually going to happen in wisconsin based on this poll and that bodes well for kamala harris. >> ann has a lot of integrity putting this poll out that -- it is probably wrong. and you talk to folks in both parties. they tend to believe that because look at their actions. if they believed iowa was in play they would have said it at least vance or walz to that. nerd out for me for a second. >> go right away. >> why republicans feel this is off. most pollsters when they do polls they try to guess what the electorate is going to be. ann doesn't do that. it's worked well for her in the past. she does -- she makes sure she get as geographic representative sample. she doesn't stop polling that area until she does. what that means is in the area where polling self-selection has gone way down. 8 or 6%. it's around 1% right now. >> explain that. >> what that means is people don't like to answer polonies more. >> got it.

. >> i am joined now by j ann selzer. -- alongside david axelrod and john king.prised were you at this -- these numbers, would you make of them? and feel free to respond to with the former president said. >> thank you for having me. we first saw the numbers on tuesday morning, monday night was the first night in the field. i walked into the office -- i saw the unweighted data. it had harris leading. my assistant said, do you see the data? i said, i would like to see the weighted data. that is how we take care of what would make our poll unrepresentative. we align things with unknown population and we extract from a larger group of people who meet our definition of likely voters. that is people who have already voted, and people who say they will definitely vote. when former president trump says we interviewed more democrats, that is what came out of our data. we did nothing to make that happen. i'm a big believer of keeping my finger off -- my dirty fingers off the data. we did it the way we did it. when he won in our final poll twice, and two election cycles, th

done by anne selzer in iowa. polls that she produces for the des moines register in iowa specifically the final iowa poll she does before each major election, her polls are known for their uncanny predictive accuracy. this is anne selzer's recent track record. what you see here, what her final poll the result would be in iowa. next to that is what the actual result was on election day. and as you can see, if you look at the senate and presidential races, since 2012, her poll has accurately predicted the result within one or two percent. in races you have seen selzer as a living bulls eye. that's why lots of people, had strong reactions when the poll was posted last night. this is that poll. and it is a shock result. it shows kamala harris ahead of donald trump by three points in iowa. the reason is harris might be winning iowa. it's three points. the iowa is a state where neither campaign is seen as a swing state. here she is with the lead. in addition to that top line lead. the polls internal numbers show dynami

what tipped it up for me is ann selzer would not release her samples as far as exactly did she poll forthood advocates, she would never say. the fact she went on msnbc afterwards to brag about this poll tells me she was not on te up and help. into trump's point, yeah, it made no sense and outlier to all outliers and she was the gold standard and this poll out of nowhere that no pollsters and how many did we talk about leading up to the election? dozens? have sign in your retirement, ann selzer, you and chris wallace could have a podcast together. >> carley: let's talk about harris campaign finance. sac filing says oprah town hall $1 million which is a lot of money. two sources told "new york times" a cots $2.5 million. over the weekend, the harris campaign stop paying senior staffers even though they were told they would be paid to the end of the year. what do you think about all of this and what is your big take away when it comes to this money and how could it impact the dnc from 2026? >> wow, great questions, carley. the macro level could you imagine kamala harris and her team and ma

that wasj ann selzer. north carolina. he was there earlier in the day before moving to north virginia and has returned a little late to deliver his speech. remember — north carolina is a key swing state. immigration is a big issue there and this is his final rally. north carolina is also a state that kamala harris has been visiting. she is heading to charlotte, north carolina, and it is another day where both candidates are holding competing rallies. if harris were to clinch a win in north carolina, that would open up north carolina, that would open up and expand that map for her on her path to 270, should she make it, but north carolina, while we call it a swing state, is one that president 0bama won in 2008 but lost when he got re—elected in 2012, so it is not an easy one for the democrats. as soon as we have some more updates for you, we will bring them to you from that rally. and remember — election day is coming soon. you can watch live coverage of the results coming in here on bbc news on bbc one in

my good _ out of ann selzer is an outlier.is up in _ good senatorjoni, in 2018, she is up in 2026. — good senatorjoni, in 2018, she is up in 2026, 2020 had joni ernst down going _ up in 2026, 2020 had joni ernst down going into _ up in 2026, 2020 had joni ernst down going into election day and i want to say— going into election day and i want to say she — going into election day and i want to say she won by double digits. we will to say she won by double digits. we. will -et to say she won by double digits. will get the to say she won by double digits. - will get the results whenever we get them but both candidates concentrating on pennsylvania, the only state kamala harris is visiting today, how do you think she is finishing out her campaign? showing the same amount _ finishing out her campaign? showing the same amount of— finishing out her campaign? showing the same amount of discipline - finishing out her campaign? showing the same amount of discipline she i the same amount of discipline she has in the hundred and three day

ann selzer was on cnn just a couple of hours ago on anderson's show and she talked specifically about the likely voters, the older women voters who she says are overwhelmingly supporting harris and that is one of the main things of the state, in her poll, to harris. what do you think is behind that? >> where there is two different polls that came out of iowa on the same day. so we are in this choose your own adventure, choose your own poll environment. on one hand the selzer poll with an incredible track record that is telling a story that is in some ways almost unbelievable. in this poll it also has kamala harris winning senior citizen men by two points. there are just rings and the cross tabs that you go, i don't know about that. i will say, in my own data i have also seen kamala harris doing better among senior women than you might expect. i don't think it is the 35 something point margin that ann selzer found in her poll but it wouldn't surprise me if older women actually do swing a little bit more toward harrison people are expecting. >> and those people vote. and in fact what sh

what i am saying is that ann selzer is good at this. even if she is close to correct on this one, it is very good news for kamala harris. it shows that she is doing quite well with a white rural electorate. here is the thing. it's not a poll happening in a vacuum. this one poll out of iowa isn't the only thing that is feeling good about with two days left. women are outpacing men and casting early ballots by nine points nationwide and 13 points in the crucial state of pennsylvania. democrats also have a 10 point enthusiasm advantage over republicans. there is signs that voters are breaking for kamala harris, too. according to a poll out this morning, 80% of voters who said that the only reason we decided on their vote. she wins the group by double digits, which is called closing strong. that is just a sample of the information out there. if you are feeling overwhelmed by the sheer amount of information, analysis, stories, data points and hot takes or whatever it may be. i have been doing this a very long time and i feel the exact same w

. | joining me live now isj ann selzer, president of the iowa based polling firm selzer and company,hanks for your time. the only results in matter are the results in matter are the results on election day, given how close this race is. could you explain why these results would be particularly surprising in iowa? would be particularly surrisin: in iowa? ~ ., ., surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been _ surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been what _ surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been what we _ surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been what we call - surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been what we call a - surprising in iowa? well, iowa has been what we call a red i has been what we call a red state — republican dominated — for the last election cycles, is the point where our entire delegation that serves in washington, dc are republican and the entire state white —— state—wide elect these are republican, except one. both chambers of the iowa house and senate are republican. iowa is just about as republican as you'll find in any state. can ou you'll find in any state. can you tell _

ann selzer, who explained the findings. i point you to the margin of kamala harris. need to appeal to older voters. kamala harris is doing very well with them. in iowa, they do tend to switch back and fore. this time they are solidly behind kamala harris. . , ., , ., ., harris. that is a situation in our work- — harris. that is a situation in our work. let _ harris. that is a situation in our work. let us _ harris. that is a situation in our work. let us go - harris. that is a situation in our work. let us go live - harris. that is a situation in our work. let us go live to i our work. let us go live to pennsylvania, where donald trump is addressing a rally. he hasjust come out trump is addressing a rally. he has just come out there. mrtapp is in mr tapp is in pennsylvania. it is a state that determines the path to the white house. if we look at the opinion polls, donald trump may have a slight edge. but it is anyone's guess who might win that. pennsylvania has 19 of those electoral college votes. he is the first class to reach 70. there are about 13 million people i

she has a good reputation for being -- for ann selzer. good reputation for being a goodp pollster. she had 9% undecided the less we can before the election. i don't believe that. i don't put a lot of weight in this particular poll. the trend you mentioned generally about women and abortion, i think that is an accurate conversation to have, but i don't think anybody other than some of the most progressive left wing sort of hopefuls believe that iowa is really in play. christian: ok. well, we will see what the results bring in. certainly one to watch. we will see if that poll bears out. after the break, we will focus announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provideby... financial services firm, raymond james. announcer: funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. and by judy and peter blum kovler foundation, pursuing solutions for amera's neglected needs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: get the free pbs app now and stream the best of pbs. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ announcer: funding for presentation of this program is provided by...

j ann selzer is the president of the iowa—based polling firm selzer & company, which conducted a pollamala harris now leading donald trump in the state. the one we just mentioned. she told me about how significant these findings could be. well, iowa has been what we call a red state — meaning republican—dominated for the last election cycles to the point where our entire delegation that serves in washington dc are republican and our entire state—wide — people who are elected state—wide — are republican, except for one. both chambers of the iowa house and senate are republican. iowa is just about as republican as you'll find in any state. can you tell us about the methodology of this particular poll? yes, what we do is want to collect data in a way that our data will reveal to us without us making any assumptions what the future electorate is going to look like. we asked people to tell us whether they will definitely vote, probably vote, and so on. we only take them if they're a definite voter, and we will have balanced a bigger pool that represents the entire state by census data, so

>> well, you mentioned the ann selzer poll, the one in iowa that everybody was kind of drooling over on on saturday. this isn't just a poll that everybody is looking at this year. it's a poll everybody was looking at in 2020, 2016, 2012. and she is a pollster that generally gets it right. and she's also a pollster that's not afraid to put out polls that are kind of outliers, as opposed to all the polls that are out now that are so 50 over 50. and there are a few things in that poll that really people were clinging to. one is how women were voting in her poll, thinking that might translate to other states in the midwest and how late deciding voters were thinking in their poll. and in her poll, she showed late deciding voters tilting towards harris by about ten points. >> we'll see. but also in that poll, i think, or maybe it's a different poll. you tell me. but it does seem like harris has lost a little bit of her advantage with women in these final weeks. right? >> well, i think that people are looking at there's different data out there, but particularly in the states where abortion

run by ann selzer, a highly respected pollster.should be investigated for fraud and current president biden is in brazil. at the g-20 conference. there's india's president modi there with him over the weekend, he became the first president to visit a rainforest. earlier, he took part in apec in peru and met with chinese president xi jinping. and we've just learned on wednesday, the house ethics committee will meet to discuss once again whether or not to release that report into matthew gaetz, the intended attorney general who faces so many allegations, all these things are coming up. yes, they've been there, too. all right. thank you. protecting your teenager while they play games. video games that is online. so ahead for you during our midday newscast, the all new steps one company is implementing. plus, spirit airlines going under the discount airline declaring bankruptcy overnight. what travelers will need to know ahead of the busy holiday travel season. but first, here's what's coming up on california live. hey brian copeland h

actually john lieber came on and said ann selzer is better.pollster and her prior polls had trump up. she said this is capturing a moment. she is talking about women north of 65 and democrats are saying maybe she does not win iowa but this gives hope she wins wisconsin and this is a better bellwether. jonathan: dort bonds, longer dollar, that pull drops and you rethink things. lisa: i don't think anyone was enjoying complacency any of the trades. maybe one person said this is what i live for. other people are saying we have no edge. at a certain point it shows you how jumpy people are. i got a lot of notes in my inbox from traders, mass email saying this is a big deal, you have to reassess, this'll make big waves on monday. annmarie: where the candidates are today says a lot. kamala harris is not leaving pennsylvania today. she is staying put. new york times siena poll says trump erased her lead in pennsylvania so they are trying to shore up early voting they are seeing that is going in trump's favor. where is trump? pennsylvania, north caroli

the poll was conducted by] ann selzer, who said �*nobody saw this coming'.oll suggests that kamala harris is leading with 47% over donald trump's 44%. and driving that lead is women and independent voters. i'd point you additionally to the margin that kamala harris wins older women with, it's a two—to—one margin among women aged 65 and over, so there is obviously something going on here. older people is who you want to appeal to because they are the most reliable voters, and kamala harris is doing very very well with that group. and independents in iowa do sort of switch back and forth. in this poll, they are solidly behind kamala harris. carl nasmanjoins us from the republican—leaning city of green bay in the swing state of wisconsin. it's raining there, carl, but lots of people turning out. what's happening where you are? a little bit of rain is not going to keep green bay packers fans away from the ceiling day. it's an iconic spot in the state of wisconsin. it's one of the few things that can unite wisconsinites. it's a swing state that very much indicted

. >> coming up as katty kay mentioned we'll speak with ann selzer. "morning joe." like their favorite treats, toys and food. the best presents. at the best prices. for the best pets. for low prices for holidays with pets, there's chewy. let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪ never once did she visit. she visited one time in an area that had nothing to do. never once did she visit. if she wins, you will live the rest of your life as second-class citizens in your own country. that's what's happening. >> in the other campaign, jonathan lemire, you would have had a candidate that had donald trump's weaknesses, like nikki haley, figuring out how to work the center and pull women towards him. the exact opposite has happened. we'll talk abou

the poll was conducted by j ann selzer, who explained the findings. said a new poll suggests that kamala harris is leading with 47% over donald trump's 44%, and that harris�*s lead is driven by women and independent voters. i'd point you additionally to the margin that kamala harris wins older women with, it is a two to one margin among women aged 65 and over, so there is obviously something going on here. older people is who you want to appeal to because they are the most reliable voters, and kamala harris is doing very well with that group. and independents in iowa do sort of switch back and forth. in this poll, they are solidly behind kamala harris. let's speak to our correspondent helena humphrey who is in north carolina, and carl nasman in wisconsin. both swing states. how much of a beast is that iowa poll to the harris camp? iii a beast is that iowa poll to the harris camp?— a beast is that iowa poll to the harris camp? if you were on social media _ the harris camp? if you were on social media last _ the harris camp? if you were on social media

harris will just eke it out, but it's going to be close. >> we have been talking for some time about ann selzertion has been correct. is this one a little more difficult for you, because you're having to wade through independents? i remember in 2020 people making terrible miscalculations about independents in florida, thinking they were going to break 3 or 4% for the democrats. they broke overwhelmingly for donald trump in 2020. so you've wandered into that sort of political minefield of independents. with your undefeated streak on the line, you've si decided thee going to break more for democrats. why is that? >> i know there's some kind of crimson tide joke i could make sure, but i'm not going to do that to you, joe. >> that's good. >> and i won't talk about the undefeated wolverines last year. let's get back to something important and why i think that the independents are going to break this year for harris and why it's so important in nevada this year. they passed an automatic voter registration bill that has caused a number of nonpartisans to explode. they're the plurality in the state now

i mean, i do hope that no one goes after ann selzer. she was just a pollster doing her job.o my grandfather. this is what, you know, we can expect a lot more of, which is why all of us need to gird ourselves and, you know, stay brave, right? because this is about making people afraid. >> so, jill, is this our new normal? is this what you can expect from an unleashed donald trump going after the military? after pollsters? is this the second term? >> yes. i'm afraid it is. which is why it is so important for, for example, state attorneys general to do the planning they're doing to protect the rights of citizens against these kinds of acts. and i want to just add, when you're asking about, are people afraid? people are afraid. and it's not just at the top levels. but if you talk to people at midlevel in the federal government, they are afraid. i'm seeing people saying, well, i better start looking for another job. because i'm going to be fired. because the president-elect is trying to get only people who will obey him, royalty is all that matters. >> all right, molly jong-fast

one person who's not afraid to take a big swing is iowa's legendary pollster ann selzer. moines register poll, which is considered one of the most accurate in the united states. it's the gold standard. so there was quite a stir on saturday when her poll found kamala harris has leapfrogged donald trump and now leads in iowa. [cheering] question is... the question for everybody... [cheering] cobbly t. stalksworth said that. the question is why? well, even though they largely supported trump in 2016 and 2020, senior women now support harris 63% to 28%. [cheers and applause] oooh. oooh. oh, senior women a-a-are pissed. oh... same me, gam-gam. but the harris campaign is cautioning against getting too excited. too late! have to excited, because i've only got two other choices: absolute terror or absolut vodka. i need this! there's no in-between. [applause] that's not to say harris herself isn't confident. >> make no mistake. we will win. we will win. we will win. we will win. we will win. [knocking] [spits] rabbit's foot, rabbit's foot! [cheering] that was fresh rabbit. i'm sor

. >> it's going to be anne selzer. she may be reached sort of an additional goddess status.thank you. we're still waiting for kamala harris. rachel maddow is standing by as we wait for the vice president to take the stage. i'll be back with rachel next, don't go any where. takes a li. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. some days, you can feel like a spectator in your own life with chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month each lasting 4 hours or more. botox® prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine before they start. and treatment is 4 times a year. in a survey, 91% of users wish they'd started sooner. so why wait? talk to your doctor. effects of botox® may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing speakin

and in iowa, ann selzer is a very respected pollster, but i have to say she is wrong.cond term in united states senate. and she called my race with me down by five points. just a few weeks before the election. and i won by 8. so, larry, i don't know what is going with with to poll ter pollster. say day we saw emerson a reported pollster release their poll, with trump taking iowa by 10. and you know me, i go to all 99 counties across iowa every single year. and what i hear on the ground is that trump is easily going to take this state. people are excited about this his candidacy. larry: senator, i'm looking at memorandum, republicans registered 143 thousand more voters this time. not -- i don't think that is in the poll. early voting, democratic votes are way down from where they were. i think all of these polls, the particularly media you know call themselves public polls they are missing. the early voting favored g.o.p., registration favoring g.o.p. and mr. trump's coalition senator is a bigger coalition, than 4 years ago. or 8. give you the last word. >> yes, absolut

. >> if you look at ann selzer and her poll and how ann drives that poll, she's not ung like a base 2020 vote or a previous election vote. she's trying to look at where the electorate is headed. and a lot of that is a momentum swing. so if you're seeing and sensing that there's some some momentum behind harri, you're going to move that way. on her poll. that's a low end. it's 808 votes respondents in her poll. so that's going to like reward a little bit of that momentum. all of this has an important impact down ballot. does donald trump if he overperforms bring anyone with him bernie moreno for example, defeating sherrod brown in ohio, that will be something to watch. what does that look like in montana? for tester, we expect democrats to lose the senate, but that could also frame their margin if they are going to have any chance to win the house. >> is that area happening? having any surprises? >> you mentioned in the last hour? i'm sorry. go ahead. yeah. >> if you look at that in terms of surprises, you are seeing some numbers. if they're a little bit lower in this sense, claudine, wha

soccer moms brought up in the era when abortion was illegal who, if you believe something from ann selzer'soll may be breaking late for harris. >> bret: soccer grannies i didn't know we evolved into soccer grannies. >> living healthy longer. i we will see michigan and north carolina report early the way they are set up. >> bret: and georgia. >> we're going to get the beginning of trump's sweep through the working class south up through the rust belt. we will see the book ends early. that will give us good idea what is going on. >> bret: you have been great all election season we appreciate you come in. up next a look at balance in power in congress and 50 races in 50 days series come to an end at 50. but, first, as we go to break. the vice presidential candidates making final appeals to swing state voters. >> she has fought every single day and sided with one client, the people of america. >> we're going to vote for a change. we're going to vote to take this country in a new direction. we are going to vote for prosperity. we're going to vote for donald j. trump. ♪ the next president of the

are viscerally responding to it in a way that they may not even be talking about and that's what ann selzere captured. that's why it might be a night tonight different than all the polls said. >> i'm emotional, too. one of the people that trained me in politics is a woman named jackie ward who has since passed away, she is not around to be able to see this. my friend terrence tolbert did not get an opportunity to see the state go blue for obama. it's an acknowledgment that there are people who have been toiling away at this work for a very long time, not just who is at the top of the ticket but for all of the people down ballot who are doing really good work in communities. you know, over the last year or so i've felt a little ownership of kamala harris' campaign because i was out there saying do not demean this woman, do not bring her down, do not go after her and attack her because we're going to need her one day. i'm not a press ant as that may presume but she is important to this ticket and the future of this country. it's amaze to go hear the 17-year-old accompanying her friends to the

and a poll in iowa by a legendary pollster names ann selzer has set off a giant alarm bell for republicansdidn't even have iowa on their radar but understand that control of the senate and house will in large part determine what the next president can or cannot accomplish. and the poll shows that women, particularly those who are older or who are politically independent are driving a late shift toward harris. and selzer explains how the house races in iowa may be the key to what's happening there. >> there's something organic going on, because the presidential candidates certainly aren't spending any money or time here. and it may be in fact that these congressional races are driving the presidential race toward the democrat. >> control of the house will be determined in key districts in iowa, california, new york, pennsylvania, and nebraska. joining me now is congresswoman prubillah jayapal, who leads the progressive caucus in the house. i think people focus so much, congresswoman, on the presidential race that they forget how important congress is. you have been in those rooms and negoti

ann selzer is a pollster for the des moines register. she's had a great record over the years. that doesn't mean she hasn't been wrong, she has, or her polls have. mainly they've been right. you can argue the details getting into the internals that mainly it was because of statistical reasons. you will have an outlier occasionally even in a very good poll and that should tell us something because you put your finger on it. we haven't had many those outliers. there ought to be more of them. having said that, when you put the kansas poll together with the iowa poll and a couple of others i've seep. one in ohio and another one in wisconsin, you can see where older women, for example, 65+, and to me that's young, older women seem to have tuned into the abortion issue, to reproductive rights and they're unhappy with the republicans and that may be one reason why the polls show harris doing better than she has in the entire campaign at least in those states. >> last week the market was pricing in what looked like a trump victory, if not a gop sweep. we had certain assets that the djt

ann selzer, with the "des moines register" is seen as the old standard. she's rarely been wrong. she's usually on point. when i'm talking to republican and democratic strategists who have been involved with campaigns for generations, they all kind of have this sentiment that this poll could be off. there a little bit skeptical of it and that is something worth noting. but again, it is very rare for her to be ron and as we are considering that, looking at the tight race it is and other battleground states, if harris were to win iowa, that would change the national electoral map. that is why this is an interesting conversation. >> i think it is a very interesting conversation. thank you so much, we appreciate that. >>> joining us, we have democratic senator of maryland, ben cardin. to see you again, sir. let's get to the big question. you expect kamala harris will become the next president of the united states, and if so, what are you seeing that makes you believe that >> it is good to be with you. i believe the vice president will win the presidency and be president harris, come l

ann selzer has a great record and the poll has a great record. it's off and even its trump is still ahead with the previous poll suggested, then that is less than the 8 to 10 that he won by twice, which suggests a movement particularly among older women and maybe younger women, as well. that will have an impact in a lot of other states and we look first to wisconsin, because much of wisconsin is so similar to the rural counties in iowa. we look a lot of places, but wisconsin is the first place we look. >> you said you have your crystal ball prediction and you have a final one coming out tomorrow and thanks for the early heads up on that one, my friend. let me get a sense of what the headlines will be on wednesday or friday, because i'm doing a bit of extra time for this question today since i'm presuming that you don't think we will know wednesday morning with the results are. >> the odds are against it, but we did in 2016, which was also very close. hillary clinton won the vote by 3 million and we knew the result through the electoral college an

the loser is ann selzer the iowa pollster gold standard of polling.oing to win iowa by 3 when in fact she lost by 13. huge miss. >> bret: yeah. hugh? winner and loser? >> winner got to be the consultants to the harris campaign. they raised and spent a billion dollars. the big 5 and 10%. we will never get an accounting how much the money the consultants made. they might be crying on television but they are having generational wealth right there. the loser is narrative. the narrative comes from a variety of sources whether it's "the view" or pod save america or a variety of different influencers on tiktok. they persuaded the democrat elite that only abortion and january 6th mattered and in fact it was the economy and immigration. so, the narrative did not narrate the truth and democrats are stunned and surprised. >> bret: there you go. okay. up next, our cabinet casino makes a debut. we're waiting for this. this is going to be good. and then "notable quotables," of course. it's friday. ♪ ♪ ke for chest congestion only mask the symptoms. you're gonna lov

martha: yeah, emerson had him up by ten and anne selzer is such a well known and correct pollster. see how that plays out. in nebraska, fox news can project that trump wins the statewide vote and nebraska gives two electoral votes to the winner and the state and one to each of their district and trump wins nebraska's first and third districts and the second district, omaha, the blue to the we've talked about, it's too early to call but harris has a lead there. there.bret: giving the u.s. 28 s and a lead in minnesota too close in recent daying according to polling. martha: tim walz from minnesota and now fox news can project a harris victory in colorado as well. she gets 10 more electoral college votes there and new mexico, too early to call but harris has a lead according to our fox news voter analysis in new mexico. bret: former trump will win louisiana and pretty sure we'd get that and trump wins kansas, adding another 6 electoral votes to his rally. martha: former president wins north dakota, a long time conservative state as well. he will also take south dakota so,which often m

ann selzer's boy "the des moines register" had harris win by 3 points, a lot of people dismiss that if you are going to draw that comparison with ohio, i think right now you can say that maybe -- maybe iowa is not going to go that way. we will see throughout the course of the night there. >> bret: i think we should get a cut from the des moines register. we have mentioned her like five times this evening. >> martha: than maybe a good idea. >> bill: just because i popped it up. you are right about that. a little back cheese. michigan. 10% in. all right? look at this. robert kennedy going to make a difference in michigan? he is on the ballot, they tried to get him off the ballot. the court said no, you got to be on the ballot. he is drawing 2455 raw votes. if michigan is that close, just something we are going to have to watch throughout the night to see whether or not this is some sort of spoiler for the red team and whether or not it helps out team blue in michigan so far. that's for you by the way. >> bret: interact with the panel here. trey gowdy is here. what about that point r.f.k.

you talk about the ann selzer poll, that number suggests, that is what she was suggesting. but georgia and north carolina still, the state that she has got to perform well in. and he can win virginia, we thought we were going to have a long night, we might have a longer night as we think about these numbers here. >> or shorter. >> bret: we have to look at the gender breakdown in these states and where we are, half the vote in, where that vote is coming from, we are going to get that coming up. >> martha: minutes away, bret. we are going to get some major poll closings coming up. arizona, michigan, wisconsin all about to close. and sean hannity will enter our chat as our special coverage continues. ♪ ♪ >> martha: we are getting a lot of new numbers and here. we are about to see a close in arizona, michigan, and wisconsin, all obviously battleground states and hotly contested. those closes are minutes away. let's check in with harris faulkner, who is speaking with voters and hearing their voices. >> harris: and watching everything you are doing, this is voters' voices, i am h

she's a renowned pollster, ann selzer, highly respected.is leading trump in a state that he won easily twice. what does that say to you about iowa or others? amy: it is not just that she's well renowned, she's also well renowned for being what looks like an outlier. in 2020 and 2016, she was showing in iowa basically the opposite of what a lot of people thought was going to happen. not just in iowa, but nationally, she was right. i think that is why she gets more weight than any other poll. part of the challenge we have with iowa, we don't have a lot of other pieces of data. what we do have our competitive house races therthat are showing harris doing a little bit better than how biden did in those competitive districts. so, there is a sense that in those places where democrats are competing, harris is also doing a little bit better there. those areas where harris is doing a little bit better, they are in more urban areas, like around des moines or college towns like iowa city. the other thing that is really interesting is this has driven t

and you look at what that ann selzer poll did at the last minute. it gave the whole country all the trump people heartburn. it gave all the other side. they got so excited. and i mean, even the prognosticators did a tick up for harris in the last day. it was all nonsense based on something else that was not reflecting the electorate that was designed to affect it. and until they're outed for this, their error rates prove they're wrong. and prove their purpose. error rate is how we're judged and they will fail. i want to thank you both, congratulate you both. that is three presidential elections in a row. maybe nate silver should do an article about matt towery, insider advantage, trafalgar. robert cahaly will write again. don't hold your breath though, guys. by the way, i wish matt, i wish you the best of luck. robert i wish you the best of luck finding the hidden kamala voters. and matt, good luck finding that golf ball, or maybe the third or fourth one. thanks, hannity. you've really helped me out on this. you might have to go swimming for it when

ann selzer, will end her famed polling operation after her final survey this election cycle missed the mark by 16 points. the poll for the des moines register showed kamala harris leading trump polls showed trump comfortably ahead an e coli outbreak linked to organic carrots reported across 18 states. the cdc says one person died. nearly 40 others have gotten sick since september. the carrots were sold at stores including sprouts, trader joe's whole foods and target. they have now been recalled all right, time now for weather a series of storms set to blast parts of the u.s. with cold temperatures, mountain snow and rain. this week, a tornado watch apparently still in effect this morning in the southern plains. let's get to our meteorologist, the weatherman derek van dam with more. derek. good morning. >> yeah, good morning. happy monday casey. yeah, we need to keep an eye to the sky. if you're located across oklahoma and central texas this is where we have an ongoing tornado watch. and in fact, some tornado warned storms, which i'll show you in just one moment. you can see the radar v

as we know, ann selzer of iowa and pretty accurate, very accurate the last few poll cycles.she is seeing this, how confident are you that that is really happening, because there was an emerson poll that came out from iowa around the same time that showed donald trump was ten points in the lead. before you answer that, let us play the sound from iowa voters as they go into the polling booths saying who they are voting for and why. >> that's is not enough time for a woman determine when, like, most women don't know they are pregnant by that point and abortion is health care. >> i feel like democracy needs to be defended. i feel like individual rights need to be defended and supported. >> i am a female physician, practicing object obgyn. my son was born ivt so i have a strong need and desire to support women's health. >> dobbs decision is weighing on these voters in iowa. how did you read this poll? >> two answers. you need to take the pole seriously and we have seen the power of the abortion issue. we have seen in this poll and our own national nbc news poll about how women ar

the poll was conducted by] ann selzer, who said "nobody saw this coming".ggests that kamala harris is leading with 47% over donald trump's 44%. and driving that lead is women and independent voters. i point you additionally to the margin that kamala harris wins older women with, it is a two to one margin among women age 65 and over, so there is obviously something going on here. older people is who you want to appeal to because they are the most reliable voters, and kamala harris is doing very well with that group. and independents in iowa do sort of switch back and forth. in this poll, they are solidly behind kamala harris. our correspondent helena humphrey has been in north carolina today, where donald trump is holding a rally right now. she told us about how his team is reacting to that surprise poll from iowa. everyone is looking at this very closely, but people are always saying when it comes to polls that you have to take it with a pinch of salt. polls are snapshots of sentiment in time, they are not necessarily predictions of how this race could go,

>> the track record of anne selzer is remarkable and she was the first one to pick up that donald trump was doing better than the polling suggested and whether this is accurate or not i don't know but i will say it's not the only one from iowa to suggest that the ground is shifting somewhat towards democrats. we are now investing heavily in two or three congressional races in iowa and we feel very good and when i say we, house democrats, we feel very good we will win at least one of those if not two or three. there has been other pulling out there suggesting that iowa isn't quite as red as it showed in 2016 and 2020. iowa has a large white population that trends older. pennsylvania also does have a large white pennsylvania. we are the second oldest state in the union. i do hope this trend we see in iowa bleeds and wisconsin, michigan, and as far east as here in pennsylvania. >> i guess finally, which message do you think, which issue do you think is rising to the top? is it inflation or the economy? is it abortion that you hear the most from voters in pennsylvania? might it be, and perh

one, ann selzer is one of the most respected public pollsters in the country and we end up getting sometimesly and they could be showing momentum even if harris isn't able to win a place like iowa. her performance with female voters with college degrees could say something and there are another way to read it is there are outliers even by the best pollsters that are out there. the guidance that i've had is we should take this poll absolutely seriously, but also skeptically, too. >> the vice president is spending her final full day in pennsylvania going throughout the state, but not leaving pennsylvania. there are questions of, is this a day when maybe she should be in other states, as well. >> pennsylvania is very important, and i know from the last couple of weeks so many people i know are getting on the bus and going to other states and she spent a lot of time in wisconsin, as well, and i don't think anything is off the table, but clearly there's a lot of emphasis on pennsylvania and going to the point about the economy. i have to say this. the economy has been better, by every major metri

>> the famous pollster ann selzer says not just voters switching candidates but really new people decidingh and get out and vote. is there any sense that iowa could be a harbinger for other states? >> i think that's what democrats are hoping. to put this all in context, in june when joe biden was the the same poll had donald trump winning by 18 percentage points over joe biden. the growth in the electorate she's talking about is what happened after we saw the nomination switch over to kamala harris. we saw people come out. we saw more people indicating to us through it our polling that they planned to vote, and so i think you're looking -- if you're a democrat, you're really looking at this it and hoping that it means something for states like michigan and wisconsin that are, you know, appear to be deadlocked battleground states that in this final week, some of these voters could be breaking for kamala harris in the same way we're seeing reflected in this iowa poll. >> i was in your town, and i was in detroit in 2020 where people were outside the count. trump supporters banging on the wind

selzer has two lost to democrats and the third within two points. ann the same thing that has been shown all year. women are hugely concerned about social issues, number one. number two, you have a hard trout ceiling and loathing going on. ann had in january that there were 40% of republican primary voters who said that they weren't going to vote for trump in the general, and that was the first piece of evidence to me that led to republican party split that i think has been clearly demonstrated. annmarie: when the polls close, in pennsylvania i was looking at bucks county and erie county, but washington county is your bellwether. why? terry: washington county has it all. washington county in the pittsburg region has the highesth house prices in the pittsburgh region in an area that hugs allegheny township. but you literally cross a creek from peters township into nottingham township to a town called finley bill and the house prices dropped by half or more, as does the income. it gets poorer and poorer the further south that you move. if you want to see