she said sage said the test and trace said sage said the test and tra ce syste m said sage said the testving a marginal impact to for those who want to put their own and theirfamilies health, who want to put their own and their families health, the self—employed, unemployed and struggling businesses to go through that pain without the again, with the government ignoring the advice is shocking and unacceptable. the liberal democrats back labb's call for a circuit breaker to try and contain the virus. in the hope that we may have some relaxation, albeit possibly temporarily at christmas. my lords, i have never seen the prime minister is one of nature's round heads. but as things stand he looks set to succeed and follow oliver cromwell at council christmas as we know it. the noble lord and baroness reference the need for action in september and i say we take robust and proportionate action when introducing measures in england including the root of —— rule of six and the 10pm curfew as well as advising people to work from home when they can. each of those was carefullyjudged to protect lives

have you had any to sage, if you like. have you had a ny co nta ct to sage, if you like.u managed to speak to them about what you say? no, we put our reports in to government and, no, we don't actually speak to them except of course, every friday, we have a public meeting, a very large number of people now regularly attend our friday meetings and we are very happy to speak to anyone in government, but, really, the door has to be open at both ends for that discussion to take place. 0k. has to be open at both ends for that discussion to take place. ok. but sage and independent sage, over the last four to five weeks, have been singing from the same hymn sheet. in other words, there is really a good correlation between our position today and the position that sage is holding and, as i said earlier on, if we had gone into a lockdown four or five weeks if we had gone into a lockdown four orfive weeks ago, if we had gone into a lockdown four or five weeks ago, when we should have, and, by the way, there is no surprise about where we are now. i'm not going to agree with the comme

because that in the sage committee will set the pandemic bat 28 days. rate also mirrors what is happening with hospital admissions. we have seen 655 new admissions. we have seen 655 new admissions to hospitals, we had six days where the admissions were over 600 people per day and they have been climbing rising and doubling every two weeks. there are some signs that that has started to slow down and you will see that with hospital admissions because and with debts it might be a few weeks before we see any impact on the measures the government announced yesterday. also finally another 17,000 234 new cases announced. the weekly average is just cases announced. the weekly average isjust under 15,000. cases announced. the weekly average is just under 15,000. if we remember three weeks ago the signs warning that we could be seeing 50,000 cases per day by mid—october. we see the trajectory once it is going up is not as bad as we were considering a few weeks ago. there is some signs of hope but the figures are sobering. thank you for being with us and for that

>> we will do whatever it takes to fight this virus but since he quotes the sage advice i will remind him on page 1 it says all the interventions considered have associated cost in terms of health and well-being and policymakers will meet to consider economic impact and associated harm alongside the epidemiological assessment and the advice i have today is if we do the regional approach commending itself to the house and the right honorable gentlemen on monday, we can bring down the virus. and support that approach. >> neither to, the prime minister talks of the costs since he rejected sage's advice the 21st of september i remind him the our race has gone up, the infection rate, hospital admissions 275 a day, yesterday, 421 covid-19 patients, and -- is there a clear view what is happening. they were heading in the wrong direction. >> on monday, the difference between this stage of the pandemic, the house knows very well the disease is a more strongly in some parts of the country than others, the figures are running 670 cases on 33 cases per 100,000 in cornwall, 530 cases in newcastle,

sage also called for all university lectures and tuition to be moved online.uce r by up to 0.5, but not if students remain in their term time accommodation. the scientists also wanted the closure of all pubs, restaurants, cafes, gyms, leisure centres and hairdressers. they say these would have a more modest impact on suppressing the epidemic. the sage committee warns that a circuit breaker would have negative impacts, especially on the poorest in society. ministers will also be assessing the detailed economic consequences. sage is advising them on the medical science, the epidemiology and the behavioural side of these things. they will also be taking into account economic questions, they'll be thinking about what the government and the country can afford and they'll also be thinking about things from a political perspective. unless radical restrictions are imposed, sage warns there could be 3000 hospital admissions a day in the uk by the end of the month, the same as the peak in early april. their view is the action taken so far is simply not enough to rein in

sage have a clear view of why that is happening. what is the prime minister's view on why these numbers are all heading in the wrong direction? >> i said that on monday and the difference between this stage of the pandemic, the house knows very well the disease is appearing more strongly in some parts of the country than others. in liverpool the figures are running at 670 cases against 30 cases per 100 in cornwall. and in newcastle, 32 - that is why the approach, the 3-tiered approach we set out on monday and he supported is the right way forward and we want to put in the most stringent measures in places where the virus is surging to get it down where it is surging. will he get answers to his labor friends in northern england where we want to work with them to put stringent measures in place to deliver reductions the whole country wants to see, will he support those measures? he wouldn't support them last night. >> the prime ministers behind the curve again. this morning, including the mayor and the conservative leader have said in

minutes from a sage meeting show that they wanted a circuit breaker.tonight keir starmer said he wanted a two or three week shutdown now. here's our deputy political editor, vicki young. coronavirus cases on the rise, hospitals under pressure, liverpool faces new restrictions from tomorrow... faces new restrictions from tomorrow. . . we've faces new restrictions from tomorrow... we've got the spirit of scousers! households are not allowed to mix but shops, restaurants, workplaces and some pubs will stay open will stop some don't think this will be enough to get the virus under control. three weeks ago the government's scientific advisers privately recommended what they called a national circuit breaker, a short period when all hospitality and leisure venues would suck. —— would shut. ministers discussed this but rejected it. the labour leader has broadly supported the government's approach but today that came to an end. sir keir starmer said it was time to act decisively and he had a direct message for the prime minister. you know the scientific eviden

let's start with the lines from sage.isjohnson, it is actually in almost half if not three quarters of the front pages of tomorrow in the uk, all newspapers, different political leaning but yet that same picture a borisjohnson we are not used to seeing so, looking so are not used to seeing so, looking so solemn, and quite grim, because it doesn't do that well. what he does well is optimism. he is selling dreams. even unreachable dreams. optimism and enthusiasm. and it looks very uncomfortable in his own shoes. it's as if he doesn't want to be there, and we will talk about that perhaps a bit later, but if he was not prime minister, it would probably be among the tory mps asking for people just to decide for themselves and to be in a libertarian and let them choose weather they want to go to the pub oi’ weather they want to go to the pub or not. he doesn't like the part he is playing although it is a very needed part, that of a leader. this is what we are seeing in the telegraph but also in the times and in the ft, which wa

it is the members of the sage group itself.pecifically about the test, trace and isolate system, which is really having a marginal impact at the moment. yes, well, the criticisms of the track and trace system have been well documented and tests are taking too long. tracings are not reaching enough and fast enough, and obviously, matt hancock has had to answer a lot of questions in the past week about the 15,000 positive cases missing out of the debacle with the spreadsheet failure to capture all the information it needed to. i think it really will focus on what sage has advised on how that matches up to what the government has implemented. three weeks ago, and date of the government hasjust weeks ago, and date of the government has just published this evening, sage was already urging the government to implement the measures we see now three weeks later. so, i think we do start to see hospitalizations rocket, death rocket, people will ask why didn‘t the government asked sooner when the scientists were urging them that was the ti

christison says sage do not consider the economics, they advise purely based on science.hout stating that they had zero consideration for that. another tweet, and he should be demanding the return of money from circle, even sage noted test and trace is failing, saying it needed genetic improvement. in those minutes from the 21st of september, sage said that her son chase was only having a marginal impact on transmission, costs osaka, 12 billion. —— costs so staff. so, there has been a disparity between what the government's scientists say should have happened and what the government did back in september. let's talk to lord blunkett, former labour home secretary and former mp for sheffield for 28 years, and jamie driscoll, labour's north of tyne mayor which covers newcastle, north tyneside, and northumberland. welcome, both. lord blunkett, do you have sympathy with the government? they get advice from the scientists but has to balance between that and what is happening with the economy? sorry you can't see me, but i hope you can hear me. we can indeed. we have some sympat

the sage advice that ministers received is, of course, published.ad great debates in this house about that, and it is published, and then we make decisions that are guided by the science, taking into account all of the different considerations that we need to look to. he set out the plans for the three different tiers in england and turned to the 10pm curfew for pubs and bars. a tory mp questioned the cut off time. there may be some undoubted positives on health, but we see some negatives with people amassing together on public transport and the streets. do the positives outweigh the negatives as far as the science is concerned? yes, i believe that they do, and i will give three reasons why i think that these measures are the right ones. the first is that we already now have evidence from axton emergency departments that we have seen a reduction in alcohol—related admissions late at night after the 10pm cu rfew. this is both important in its own right, but it's also a proxy as a measure of how much people are drinking late at night, and therefore, i

sage talked about test and trace. sage talked about that.nced yesterday that healthcare staff across worst affected parts of the country will now get regular testing, even if they are asymptomatic. 0ne testing, even if they are asymptomatic. one of the things we don‘t want repeated as an epidemic actually in the care system itself. but i think every scientist wishes the delivery is as effective as it possibly can be. i think it‘s the logistics of the delivery. we know also that more people are being treated in hospital than we would when we went into full lockdown. what is your assessment of where we are right now. there is no doubt it‘s not good news in terms of the number of cases but we know a lot more about this disease, treatments are more of the live, so at a basic level, we know how to manage the oxygen requirements of patients with severe disease better and how to do the ventilation better and have also discovered through the recovery trialed. giving anti-inflammatory drugs later such as those, we can test earlier on and there is evi

i'm not privy to all the information going to sage, but it is a difficult decision to make.ehaviour and for people trying to plan their lives and to everyone getting on top of the virus. the arguments made against a lockdown, why would they have changed with this data? i can't tell you for sure, but i think it's trying to protect the nhs as well as to save lives. but what we often forget is that people have the power to deal with this pandemic themselves. if they understand the messages being provided be i by the government and if they follow those. that is what is happening in many countries especially where asian countries where people do try to protect others and themselves. whether that is occurring in the uk, i can't say. but congregations of young people in social environments are not conducive to decreasing transmission. on the numbers that the bbc seems to have seen, at the height of the pandemic in the spring, deaths reached more than a thousand a day and if no changes we re thousand a day and if no changes were introduced now, deaths could reach more than 4,000 a d

as you say, sage recommended a national circuit breaker a month ago, sage recommended a national circuitnal circuit breaker a month ago, on the 21st of september. that's according to those minutes. isn't it too late for the rest of england ? minutes. isn't it too late for the rest of england? it is true that we are in the last chance saloon, and it is true we cannot dilly—dallying much longer. but i don't think it's too late. the figures are alarming, they are rapidly getting us back towards the levels in march when we went into lockdown, but we are not there yet. i think we do still have a chance if we react quickly, and if the government acts decisively at a national level. you see, when you look at the national regional lockdown is, at one level it is a good idea, but it has been very badly handled, i think. the thing it was meant to do, number one, bring clarity. because nobody knew what on earth the rules were. even the prime minister didn't know. secondly, to bring about a sense of equity so that people didn't feel well, why are we in restrictions and others aren't? the idea was th

as you have identified, sage did identify that in september, yes.n now, what would be the best course? how quickly should a lockdown be imposed and how expensive should it be? these are political decisions, but the experience from tier 3 intervention, particularly in merseyside and manchester... merseyside and manchester... merseyside had had it for 17 days. tha nkfully merseyside had had it for 17 days. thankfully we have seen a reduction in the acceleration of cases, but this has led to merseyside experiencing a plateauing of activity but it has stayed at a high level of activity, so we are not accelerating but we are still in a bad place. and that is putting considerable pressure on our hospitals. we now have more people with covid in hospital than we did in the first wave. manchester, which came into tier 3 slightly later, is now catching up, in fact exceeding in absolute case numbers. and other parts of the country are also levelling up to this high level of activity. so yes, the acceleration of the outbreak is not as fast as it was in the firs

i have read the advice of sage and the government has rejected it.ter his preprepared rant ready as usual. we are at a tipping point, time is running out and maybe he can seize the moment and answer a question. this morning the telegraph quotes, senior government question. this morning the telegraph quotes, senior government sources saying quotes, senior government sources saying the chances of the prime minister backing a circuit breaker in the next two weeks are about 80%. is that right? if it is, why doesn't he do it now, save lives, fixed testing and protect the nhs? mr speaker, this is a man who claims to be supporting the government one day and then performs a dramatic u—turn the next. everybody, mr speaker, supports the rule of 61 day and then takes his support away the next. he wants tough measures but then refuses to vote for them. everybody can see what he is doing. labour have said it themselves, they see it asa have said it themselves, they see it as a good crisis for the labour party and from they wish to exploit. we see this as a nation

sage gave a very clear advice.hey said a package of interventions, including a circuit breaker, will be needed to prevent an exponential rise in cases. why did the prime minister reject that advice and abandon the science? none of us want to see... that is the disaster, the disaster of a national lockdown. we don't want to go there. we want the regional approach, he should cooperate with it. birmingham city council confirms a number of already—used coronavirus swab kits were given out to households in selly oak. critics condemn large crowds in liverpool city centre last night, as the area enters the highest level of restrictions. and, as countries around the world grapple with how to contain a second wave of the virus — we examine what measures are being deployed in europe. and coming up on bbc news, the power grab at the top which will help smaller clubs below, the premier league meet for the first time to disucuss the controversial changes proposed in english football. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news a

sage also called for all university lectures and tuition to be moved online.could reduce r by up to 0.5, but not if students remain in their term time accommodation. the scientists also wanted the closure of all pubs, restaurants, cafes, gyms, leisure centres and hairdressers. they say these would have a more modest impact on suppressing the epidemic. the sage committee warns that a circuit breaker would have negative impacts, especially on the poorest in society. ministers will also be assessing the detailed economic consequences. sage is advising them on the medical science, the epidemiology and the behavioural side of these things. they will also be taking into account economic questions, they'll be thinking about what the government and the country can afford and they'll also be thinking about things from a political perspective. unless radical restrictions are imposed, sage warns there could be 3000 hospital admissions a day in the uk by the end of the month, the same as the peak in early april. their view is the action taken so far is simply not enough t

ijust wish for 20 minutes, sage finding a better way.ber ten that there is a better way than they are going right now which is waiting for a vaccine, which is not going to be optimal. there needs to be a better way to buy time than the lockdown and release cycle, so vaccine is the ultimate way out but we need a more sustainable approach. and yet we are being told that the nhs will have the capacity to carry out half a million tests by today, we think that the government probably nearly is on course for that. isn't that the sort of work that. isn't that the sort of work that you want to see being done? yes, of course, mass testing is a step forward but there is no point toasting people if they don't isolate. the whole point is to break chains of transmission, so someone is infectious, they don't pass it on. this virus lives on and canjump from one person to another person in the infectious phase, so there has been a huge focus on metrics, goals, getting to 100,000, half a million but if you don't have the whole system, you want to use tes

various papers are reporting new sage analysis saying 25,000 in hospital with covid by the end of nextth. sage member and former chief scientific adviser sir mark walport says that it is "certainly not unrealistic." nottingham and the surrounding areas of rushcliffe, gedling and broxtowe are moving into the top tier of covid restrictions. the measures come in at one minute past midnight. about 8 million people in england will be living in the tier 3 "very high" alert level by the end of the week. meanwhile, the leaders of the uk's four nations are being urged to agree on uniform guidance to allow people to celebrate christmas with family and friends safely. the liberal democrats and the alliance party of northern ireland say the governments have a duty to "explore workable solutions" for the festive period. but the environment secretary says the right measures are in place to give people a good festive season. the prime minister and also the health secretary have always been clear that they don't rule anything out. we keep all options under review. this virus moves very quickly, that i

having read and considered the sage advice, i have genuinely concluded that a circuit break is in thel interest. but borisjohnson accuses keir starmer of opportunism. i think at three o'clock, mr speaker, the shadow health spokesman said that a national lockdown would be disastrous. at five o'clock, he was calling for it. the first minister of wales says he's to ban people from coronavirus hotspots entering the country. also on this programme: why do children from some ethnic minority groups do better at school than white working class youngsters? they are desperate to make a new start and enable their children to succeed in the new system. and a plea to help lorry drivers caught short in channel—crossing queues. but first: with covid—19 rates rising, more hospitalisations and an increasing number of deaths, the prime minister announced a new approach to tackling coronavirus. we are today simplifying, standardising, and in some places, toughening local rules in england by introducing three levels of covid—19 alert. so all parts of england would be put into one of three tiers. most of

three weeks ago sage advised a circuit breaker lockdown.o a care home. in may this year, he has been may read —— married men 70 years and sadly because of covid, he cannot see his wife and his family. can my right honourable friend please update the house as to what is being done to rapid testing to stop the scourge of loneliness in our care homes? i was working on this issue of how we can safely allow visiting, especially of people who have been married for 17 years, which is an extraordinary achievement in of itself, to allow visiting in a way that is safe, according to the risk level of the background rate of infection. of course, testing can be part of the solution, as can be the use of ppe properly. we have more nuanced rules in place now than there were during the first peak and i would be happy to work with my honourable friend to make sure we get this right. thank you, mr speaker. iwelcome make sure we get this right. thank you, mr speaker. i welcome the secretary of state‘s greater attention on york announced today. but i am concer

the scientific view on sage is that something tougher is going to be required.to be considered. and the numbers certainly are going in the wrong direction right now, whether it is hospital admissions or whether it is deaths, tragic though they are, but it is worth pointing out as we have heard before that treatments are people in hospital are getting better. people are surviving when before, that was looking less likely. so that is the round—up of where we are now and we will have to watch the data, as always. thank you very much. what's the picture in europe? france and germany are expected to announce new measures today. in a moment, we'll speak tojenny hill in berlin, but first to hugh schofield, in paris. here, the country has been put on notice to expect something pretty drastic this evening when president macron addresses the country again. the word from the is elysee that scientific opinion believes it is out of control and numbers are exploding. the second wave appears more virulent than anybody at the elysee expected and some kind of shock measure is in

we parker is with me now. heard a warning from sage yesterday we heard a warning from sage member yesterdayat this second wave was preventable and we should have been able to foresee it and we need to act now. there is a lot of political arguments still raging, isn't there? yes, you have different leaders in different local areas are saying slightly different things. over the last few days as well we have seen frustration from those local leaders who say they are not being consulted enough about the changes that might be coming to their area. we changes that might be coming to theirarea. we are changes that might be coming to their area. we are going to hear more about those changes when boris johnson is in the house of commons on monday. yesterday, quite an important development. rishi sunak announcing a package of support for announcing a package of support for a new businesses —— businesses that may be forced to close by law over the coming weeks and months. leaders have been giving their reactions to that package. among them, labour's dan jarvis from sheffield. we welcome the general pr

independent sage has put out a very detailed six page blueprint for how to do this.government were to have enough national circuit breaker as advised by sage, along with four to four to six weeks of com pletely with four to four to six weeks of completely changing the design on the basis of the test trace and isolate system, we are within a shout of being able to all have christmas together. without that, it was not looking grim. professor susan from ucl. thank you for your time. pleasure. the government's continuing to resist growing pressure to provide free school meal vouchers for children during next week's half term in england. local councils have joined many restaurants and cafes in offering to feed those who would otherwise receive free school meals, in response to a campaign by the footballer, marcus rashford. he's said he's overwhelmed and thankful for the support. the government has said it has provided substantial support to families facing difficulties. the headlines on bbc news... south yorkshire is the latest region to move to england's top level of res

last night, minutes from a meeting of sage, the government scientific advisers, were released.n september 21, they were urging ministers to impose an immediate circuit breaker, in other words, a short, sharp lockdown to disrupt the transmission and scientists wanted to close all bars, cafe is, indoor gyms and hairdressers and to ban or contact inside homes with other households. they wanted university and college teaching to take place online unless it is essential and advise those who can work from home to do so. government action fell far short of all that. but ministers say they took a balanced approach, listening took a balanced approach, listening to economists as well as scientists, to economists as well as scientists, to protect livelihoods as well as lives. we did take robust action at that time. if you remember, that's when we clarified the rule of six and brought in, for example, the 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants but we have reviewed that an ivor evidence that contributed to the decision the prime minister made and announced yesterday to introduce the three tie

neither does sage and the prime minister, the prime minister talks of the costs, since he rejected sage'scost of rejecting the advice. sage has a view on why that is happening. what are the prime minister's view of why these numbers are all heading in the wrong direction? i set that out very clearly in the house on monday and the difference between this stage in the difference between this stage in the pandemic and march and april, as the pandemic and march and april, as the house knows very well, as the disease is appearing much more strongly in some parts of the country than others and in liverpool, for instance, alas, the figures are now running at 670 cases per 100,000 against 33 cases per 100000 and,. that is why the tiered approach, the three tier approach that we set out on monday and he then supported is the right way forward. we want to put in the most stringent measures necessary in the places where the virus is surging in order to get it down where it is surging, mr speaker. that is the logical thing to do and when to get on his labour friends logical thing to do and when to ge

yeah, that is what we knew that the sage scientists were advocating a couple of weeks ago or five orthe government was absolutely insistent that that wasn't necessary because it was pursuing this regional approach and it could point to other countries around europe and the world who are doing something similar. what has been quite striking when you compare the english approach with the approach elsewhere in europe, and including wales in the uk, is that england was increasingly isolated. we have seen the move by president macron in france, angler merkel in germany, ireland, wales, belgium and elsewhere. england are looking increasingly isolated. the government had always said when we push government ministers, will there be a national lockdown? they said, well, we don't rule out any particular course of action, but they clearly hope that the regional approach, despite the pain it caused politically, with the tussle between the mayor of manchester and the government a couple of weeks ago, that that was the better option, the argument being there are still significant parts of the coun

remember a few weeks ago, sage said we should have a two week circuit breaker which the government didis johnson saying we have tier three programme, tier programme, tier 0ne, tier two, and tier three and clearly these projections are being made to persuade the government go in for a much stricter strategy to contain the problem. and the government excepting that or not is a debatable proposition. ros what do you make of the calls for a stronger stricter lockdown? i understand the calls and this is not an easy decision. nobody really knows because we haven't dealt with this disease before but i have to ask what the strategy is for getting out of this? if you just lockdown, we have tried that but actually the virus came back and we are back in a position where we are talking about locking down again. with all of the associated side effects that also has on people's health... macro and i will let you carry on but to jump health... macro and i will let you carry on but tojump in on health... macro and i will let you carry on but to jump in on that point because the daily telegraph draws u

i should say you are here on a personal capacity tonight rather than representing sage.eeting on the 21st of september where the idea of the circuit breaker was signed off by the scientific advisers. why did you think the circuit break was something necessary? the transmission of the infection and the numbers across the uk really started to fall and really reach their low point in about a 10th ofjuly, and since then they have just been edging up consistently throuthuly, august, then into september, and by the middle of september at the time of that meeting you could see they were at that point of inflection, when they go from gradual increase to a pretty dramatic increase, and when the community transmission builds up i am afraid to say hospitalisation and, tragically, deaths, will always follow, and that's what we were seeing through the early weeks of september through to that meeting. has the government missed the boat this time around? yes. personal view, iwould have moved on the 215t or whatever of september, and in my view that was the best time to act, and you cou

according to sage's estimate it is as big as closing the whole of hospitality.ols it doesn't have a big impact on the economy. lots of secondary children could be at home on their own without their parents being there. we are calling for all schools to be in the national lockdown to avoid another half measure which will just lockdown to avoid another half measure which willjust need to be repeated. to have skills in this lockdown now, use that as time to get dressed during a protest, track, trace organised properly and have skills out and that could be an opportunity to ensure schools are still learning but skills can be a contribution to suppressing the virus. are you drawing a distinction between primary schools and secondary skills because the evidence suggests because young —— that young children do not suffer badly by and large from the virus and are not great transmitters. we are certainly not drawing a distinction between primary and secondary schools, we think the government should not resort to half measures, it should close everything down to try and g

another piece of context that is really important, sage also said the cu rfew was really important, sagew was likely to have minimal impact, basically they did not think it was going far enough. the one piece of advice are borisjohnson took was to urge people to work from home where possible again. this raises a bunch of questions, most importantly whether the government can still say it has been guided by all following the science, some are racing to questions about the extent to which it is doing that, given this evidence from sage. the labour party is saying they think that ministers may need to go further. listen to the shadow health secretary. i'm concerned that they didn't go far enough and when you look at hospital admissions, for example, across greater manchester, the north east, you can see that this virus is out of control. there are more and more people going into critical care. i think they should have gone further yesterday and put more restrictions in place, while at the same time giving the appropriate economic support, as well. there will be more discussion of this later

that's according to a report by the scientific advisory group for emergencies, or sage, which says there000 people with and without symptoms gives the office for national statistics a feel for how widespread the virus is in local communities and the data from the most recent survey suggests it is still increasing. the uk's national statistician gave me his assessment of where things now stand with covid—19. they've got to be fairly gloomy and i do believe that we are continuing to increase, i think we need to absolutely be tireless, everybody across the country, following the rules. because if not, then i fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase. the estimates of how many people in the community had the virus in the period leading up to october 23. the most relative to the local population were in northern ireland, the least in scotland. but there were big variations within england with many more in the north—west relative to the population but in the south—east of england. the ons did say that in the north—east of england there was evidence of a slowdown and slight reducti

say overall, things are going in the wrong direction, and minutes of meetings of the government's sage a pessimistic mood. a paper on 0ctober14 from a group tracking the spread of the virus says that in england, the number of daily deaths is now in line with the levels in the reasonable worst—case and is almost certain to exceed this within the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario is 85,000 covid deaths over the winter, though officials say government interventions can reduce that. policymakers around the uk are under increasing pressure to come up with a plan to allow families to meet at christmas, and the first minister in wales had a message for downing street. we need to share that information, we need to share ideas and, wherever we can, particularly around that christmas period, i would like to see as common an approach as we can craft together while recognising that the state of the virus and the response that's being made does differ from one part of the uk to another. in parts of scotland, face coverings will be required for teachers and older pupils in classrooms from mon

but, having read and considered the sage advice, i have genuinely concluded that a circuit break is inr speaker, is to seize this moment now to avoid the misery of another national lockdown, into which he wants to go headlong, by delivering a regional solution. politicians don't like admitting it but there can be opportunity in crisis, and there have been conversations in government about bringing in a limited lockdown, to close pubs and bars everywhere, to slow the disease down. number ten is loath to press the button on a limited lockdown for england, notjust because of the harm that could do to the way the country makes its living, but also, why treat everywhere the same when the pattern of the disease varies from place to place? but avoiding a limited lockdown is a strong hope, not a guarantee. more parts of the country could soon fall under tighter rules. a limited lockdown is not a never, but it's certainly not for now. laura kuenssberg reporting there. let's get some of the day's other news... the government in thailand has brought in an emergency decree, following a series of p

that's according to a report by the scientific advisory group for emergencies, or sage, which says thereng covid—i9 than it was prepared for. our health editor, hugh pym reports. tracking the virus. testing of more than 150,000 people. to get a feel of how widespread the ibises and local communities and the data from the recent surge they suggest it is still increasing. the uk's national statistician gave me assessment of where things 110w me assessment of where things now stand with covid—19.|j me assessment of where things now stand with covid-19. i do believe that we are continuing to increase. think we need to be absolutely tireless in everybody across the country following the rules because if not, then i fear that the virus is going to exponentially increase. the estimates of how many people in the community have the virus in the period leading up to october 23 relative to the local population were northern ireland. the least in scotland. but there were big variations within england. with many more in the north—west relative to the population than in the south—east of england. the

is, deenan pillay professor of virology at university college london, and a member of independent sageto the government on its response to the coronavirus. would you be in favour of shortening of the self isolation period if it helps more people comply with it? well, of course, you are right in terms of the adherence to current isolation guidelines is woefully poon isolation guidelines is woefully poor, but of course, we have to remember that isolation is one of three critical components of the test, trace and isolate strategy. first of all, finding those to test, getting results back second day on time and thirdly, using that timeliness to then ask people to isolate those contacts and the current system is failing on all three accounts. so, we have to be sure that we don'tjust fiddle around at the edges here of trying to improve small amounts. we need to improve all of these components in order to really improve the overall effectiveness of this strategy in reducing ongoing transmissions. do you think it is failing in the areas you think it is failing in the areas you have outlined ?

that's according to a report by the advisory group sage, which says there are around four times as manyng covid—19 than it was prepared for. it comes as the office for national statistics estimates that over 500,000 people in england have had coronavirus in the last week, that's one in 100 people. the head of the 0ns, sir ian diamond, has described the picture as gloomy, as the virus was "moving very quickly" through the population. today's figures will increase pressure on the government for wider, national restrictions. our health editor hugh pym reports. preparing for a bleak winter. hospitals know more covid cases are on the way, some are extremely busy already and the outlook today has got darker. a comprehensive survey by the office for national statistics, testing those with and without symptoms of the virus in local communities, suggests there are steep increases in some areas. the head of the 0ns gave me his assessment of where things now stand with covid—19. i've got to be fairly gloomy and i do believe that we are continuing to increase. i think we need to be absolutely tirel

a meeting of the sage advisory committee reveal a pessimistic mood.spread of the virus says in england the number of daily deaths is now in line with those in the reasonable worst case and is almost certain to exceed this in the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario in the next two weeks. that worst—case scenario is 80,000 covid deaths over the winter, although officials say government interventions could help. policymakers in the uk are under increasing pressure to come up with a plan for families to meet over christmas and the first minister in wales had a message for downing street. we need to share information, we need to share ideas, and wherever we can, particularly over the christmas period, i would like to see a common approach as we can craft together, recognising that the state of the virus and response thatis the state of the virus and response that is being made does differ from one part of the uk to another. in parts of scotland, face coverings will be required in more situations. the latest government figures show there were 274 death

members, had to say. 0ne one of the sage members, had to say. one way to look at it is to look at what is happening in similar countries. france has a similar population to us and currently they have about 16,000 people in hospital, 2500 in intensive care compared to 852 here. and roughly half the icu beds in france are occupied. similarthings half the icu beds in france are occupied. similar things in spain. and these are in spite of these countries taking strong measures as well so the answer is that with our current measures, which are similar but with variations in different parts of europe, there is still evidence that there is not as much a social distancing as there was when we clamped down on the first wave. we know risk is significant that cases will continue to grow. it is not unrealistic to think of 25,000 people being in hospital by the end of next month? certainly not unrealistic to think about that. as was said on television recently, if the reproduction number, if it stays at one it means that every ten people infect ten or more b

thank you, sage, very much for that. chris green, many thanks indeed.nica, what is your view? it's a very confusing situation when boundaries of countries go between the middle of countries go between the middle of communities. how do you really expect people to carry on their lives as best they can? the restrictions are so confusing. you can‘t go to the church, which obviously is affecting a lot of people, you can‘t get to the local hospital or do not grow your closest hospital. your gps are also in another country. so it is difficult and it is confusing. i think this sort of standard message of as you say sanitise, wash your hands, keep your space, those things, local people are doing that as well as they possibly can but it effects them when they need services and the services are not there. because you are interconnected. can you give me an example of what sort ofjourneys people need to do and how far the distance is? to get to your local hospital two miles away, less than two miles away is in england but you would have to go further into wales to g

but having read and considered the sage advice, i have genuinely concluded that a circuit break is inid the misery of another national lockdown into which he wants to go headlong by delivering a regional solution. politicians don't like admitting it but there can be opportunity in crisis, and there have been conversations in government about bringing in a limited lockdown, to close pubs and bars everywhere, to slow the disease down. number 10 is loath to press the button on a limited lockdown for england, notjust because of the harm that could do to the way the country makes its living, but also, why treat everywhere the same when the pattern of the disease varies from place to place? but avoiding a limited lockdown is a strong hope, not a guarantee. more parts of the country could soon fall under tighter rules. a limited lockdown is not a never, but it is certainly not for now. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. new figures obtained by bbc news reveal a sharp decline in the number of children being referred for specialist mental health treatment during the covid crisis. freedom

professorjohn edmonds, who sits on sage, he helped to draw up some of the models.rcuit rate would not now be enough. he says we would need to lockdown harder and for longer to bring cases down to an acceptable level. presumably that explains why we got the briefing last night suggesting the government was looking at a month? that's right. it is understood the government is considering a full week lockdown, but keeping schools and universities open. could we have a regional lockdown? well, we could, but professor edmonds says a national lockdown would probably have better compliance, the stay at home message. it is very simple, everybody would adopt it is easy to understand. it would help everyone in england, because the warnings we would have, the hospitals in the south—west could run out of beds. would have, the hospitals in the south—west could run out of bedslj have just come back up from the west country a couple of days ago and people there were talking about how, relatively speaking, the numbers are low. but the hospitalfacilities, in a largely rural area, co