lisa: yes. i think people are aware of the need with the lack of divide with people working from home. i don't know people will be working from home more. does that mean an extra 40 minutes on average of work? tom: bloomberg has done great work on this. there's a serious mental health crisis coming out of this natural disaster. jonathan: without a doubt, absolutely. tom: we are making jokes about it, but this is serious. jonathan: i catch up with megan greene a little later. she is doing work on that. she is trying to talk about whether it is holding back this labor market as well. lisa: particularly among kids and people entering the labor force now. if you think about kids out of school and not able to socialize, it has been a difficult period. jonathan: coming out, wells fargo corporate investment bank senior economist. from new york this morning, payrolls are one hour five minutes away. heard on radio and seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance". ♪ jonathan: this show was so much better

lisa? inking about the fact that people want to say they have been to space, and people really want to achieve their dreams. you spoke about -- you talk about space tourism. what is the achievement they want? jonathan: the view of the planet. lisa: so that is what is going to count as getting to space. if you start to move space travel to a private endeavor, what that does with respect to oversight, with respect to the public aspect. i know i am bringing this to seriousness, but it is a really interesting issue that used to be the public's. dusty public-sector. -- the public sector. jonathan: this really does frustrate people. there's people that look at this and say we've got enough problem's on this planet right now, and these guys with a serious amount of money aren't doing enough. tom: what they would respond with is a layout of their cherries and what they have done over the years. i should point out that on a summer evening, a late summer night in july of the 1960's, as armstrong step

lisa was always smiling. lisa was... so kind. _ gareth. lisa was always smiling. lisa was...ing for anybody. and... she was just doing the right thing. that's all she was doing. and... ijust don't want what has happened to her to be brushed under the carpet. if anything good can come of what has happened to lisa, so this doesn't happened to lisa, so this doesn't happen to other people. you know, we sat there in the intensive care unit and we saw what they did to my beautiful wife. to try to save her. i don't want that to happen to other people. i don't want anybody else to have to tell their children that their mummy�*s not coming home. so as i say, if she can be remembered in that way, you know, she has done some good, that would be a positive. gareth, i am so, so sorry. thank you very much for talking to us today. thanks. listening in to that is our medical editor fergus walsh. tell us more about the condition we are talking about here. heartbreaking to listen to that, and gareth is absolutely right that there does need to be a focus on the side—effects and potential risks

lisa: the projection going forward was disappointing. the expectations for the pandemic softening as people do other things than stay home and shop online. you do wonder how significant this is with amazon. jonathan: here's a line from the cfo. i would count on weight pressure for the immediate future. how many other cfos do you know are thinking about the same thing. lisa: quite a few. other companies have to compete to get workers. to give you a sense of how quickly they are hiring, they increased their labor force by 52% in the past year to well over a million people. just to give you a sense of their cloud. jonathan: and their cloud in the benchmarks. -- clout in the benchmarks. to some extent, the six lanes i we are down today. kailey: dropping hard on the nasdaq futures this morning. i think this speaks to a theme broadly across big tech, the idea that gross has -- growth has peaked. what will this be for high-growth names going forward? we have been seeing a rotation as markets get m

lisa: cheers.hter] i am curious to see whether analysts are going to change their tune because we still -- and lower 10-year gilts. jonathan: let's bring in wendy benjaminson and head down to washington, d.c. wendy, good to catch up. we have been waiting for that advisory from the administration , for corporations doing business in hong kong. who is it for? wendy: it's an interesting question. jonathan: it is kailey's question, not mine which is why it was an interesting. [laughter] wendy: congratulations. obviously there's a lot of money to be made in hong kong, but you would think the companies have people telling them about the national security law and what the risks are, so i think the biden administration is signaling this as part of its tougher on china stands -- china stance, trying to show it is tough on china as it begins its foreign policy push. lisa: that's exactly where i wanted to go, hoping you could put in perspective this directive. in other words, the trajectory of different china

lisa: there's a question about why. is it because of a fed policy error, or because growth is going to revert to a new normal because we cannot afford higher rates at this point? jonathan: let's asked that question to robert tipp, pgim chief investment strategist. what do you say? robert: i think we have seen the peak in rates probably for the cycle. there could be another between peak -- another twin peak later on, but there could be one of the underpinnings of the long-term declines, the secular decline in rates, aging demographics and high debt burdens. economies that are incredibly indebted, and there's been a secularized in debt to gdp ratios across developed worlds, the upshot of that is that you cannot afford the higher interest rates you had before. so it is entirely reasonable to expect we will get a lower peak for rates and the cycle than last time, and we have probably already seen that. jonathan: is that consensus -- lisa: is that consensus at this point? that is a pretty bold call, that we have seen the pea

ti lisa -- to lisa's point, that is where the excess liquidity is going.is not being forced in the u.s. treasury market as much as it is being placed in the corporate credit market. i think that is an accelerator where spreads are going, where they've been. jonathan: lisa? your take. lisa: i think i would agree with all of that. the problem that i have for our clients is there is just not much spread left. the problem is, since our call is we think underlying rates move up, there is just no cushion, if you will, to preserve capital. do i think we have default risk? no. do i think balance sheets are healthy and cash flows are great? absolutely. are my clients going to repay their coupon? yes. do they face underlying rate risk because spreads are tight? yes. that is the conversation we are having with folks. after any risks you have to your capital, what are your total returns? they might be razor thin. jonathan: asha, talk to me about that. ashok: it is a great point, with where credit spreads are, the outlook for credit spreads, demand is range browned, yo

tom: lisa, that is what it is about. even equity -- the equities team follow bonds and bond vigilantes. lisa: but they follow data that is inconclusive at this point. we are going to learn about inflation in the next cupping months -- next couple months. -- that is some of the turbulence there forecasting. tom: liz ann sonders was with us and edward yardeni in a moment. we hook up with edward yardeni by wires and the screen turns green. it is amazing. we have the nasdaq finally green on the screen. he moves the markets just by showing up and doing a sound check. jonathan: of 2/10 on the s&p. the nasdaq unchanged. yields up a single basis point. we have to keep going back to it. and i slipped in crude this morning, 75.6 1 -- $75.61. tom: brent crude up 2.4%. we have gone beyond that with some people framing out $100 per barrel. it was one of the tennis -- the toughest acts to lyme economics. this was a million years ago. the guy that replaced him was the same or even better. edward yardeni out of yale brought a huge acuit

jonathan: you sound like lisa.lly important argument he is developing that we should spend time on, pushing back against the idea that the supply-side of the economy will respond, he thinks are some constraints that will persist. tom: what is so important about the stagnation debate is we are living in real time. i will go to the fed meeting today. never have we been more -- than we are now, including our participation of a slowing america. jonathan: can you imagine them? lisa: we would be happy. we would be discussing scenarios. tom: the suppression era. jonathan: from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: i am laura wright. an investigation into the attack at the capitol. in the first public hearing, members of the panel made it clear that the former president's activities are a central focus of the probe. yesterday, there was dramatic testimony from four police officers who helped defend the capitol. there is a mask wearing requirement for lawmak

lisa: who can blame them?line cfo wouldn't do this when you've got investors throwing their money away? 40 your debt. what is apple going to look like in 40 years? jonathan: no idea. amazon, are you growing your money at amazon stock morning? we want to bring ken bloomberg intelligence's senior analyst for u.s. retail. that's start with this one. some people think maybe amazon is just shifting the bar lower, resetting things. what is your take? reporter: you can say that. they have to bring down consensus is that is too high going into the back half, and you can't except amazon to grow north of 20% on top of comparisons from last year. there's new estimates we have at 10% to 16%. you could argue that it may be beatable, especially as they move into territory where virus cases are rising, and you could see a pullback in spending in the areas that have picked up such as restaurants and leisure. lisa: what i hear underneath that, and i know you are not going to make a call, but people have overreacted. is that wh

lisa: i am very confused. when i was going through passport control, there was a lot of yelling, a lot of confusion. people checking their news flows to figure out what the covid restrictions are and what -- where the pandemic is. what signs are they looking at? what are they waiting to see? this is a great unknown that a lot of people are asking. jonathan: margaret patel joins us now. i start with a question, your 10 year yield 138, why are we down here? margaret: we are down here because the treasury curve has kept suppressed for what the fed is doing. they have buying a lot of longer duration treasury bonds long-term and so really there is no place for the demand for treasury securities to go, so you see them expressing emotion in the middle part. people are worried about inflation, but they are also worried about what if the economy slows down from deceleration or from covid. compared to yields and the rest of the world, the dollar stabilized. the 10 year at 130 looks like a decent investment. lisa: based

i see lisa in vienna. lisa: sure, i will head over there. you can clip the coupons on my 100 year paper. lisa: with respect to oil, it is well below the 100,000 or more expected in terms of increased production which is why you are seeing a boost to crisis. just to give a little bit of perspective there. this is a delicate dance because you don't want to push people further into ev's and renewable energies by allowing prices to go too high. tom: we have to rip up the script. what in god's name is happening in the u.k.? jonathan: this is from prime minister boris johnson, extra precautions may be needed after july 19. july 19 is the line in the sand. the government may keep some government precautions -- some covid precautions. we will send out details in the next few days on the pandemic. we talked about this about a week ago, overwhelmed by events and the delta variant is shaking things up in the u.k. even with this explosion in cases, if you describe it that way, we have not seen the same move in hospitalizations and deaths. tom: interesti

lisa: coincidence?athan: is a coincidence we have a record low real yield on the 10 year with you back? welcome back. i hope you are nice and rested because this week is a busy one. with lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. with your equity market a little bit lower, this is "bloomberg surveillance." laura: jeff bezos has followed up his trip into space with an offer to nasa. the world's richest person wrote to the space station and said it must quickly return to the moon and said he would wave up to $2 billion in fees as it competes. the white house is shifting away talks about inflation. polls show there is increasing voter concern about rising prices -- president biden's plan to spend trillions on social programs is infrastructure project. democrats plant have the president use plain language explanations and ensure people the price hikes will fade in time. china has -- it wants to decrease workloads to students and overhaul the sector it says has been hijacked by capital. education companies

lisa: [laughter] jon: just looking at a move of 28 basis points. thank you, lisa.i think it starts to lie 13. i will go earnings. i do want to bring you a headline, we will follow this all day, this is the chief financial officer of the trump organization, this has been widely anticipated and reported by the post last night. the process will begin out of an office in new york. these are the first actions. the word indictment is used for the chief financial officer of the trump organization. widely expected to touch on the use of taxation and benefits, but you wonder if there will be a surprise along the way. we will process this through the morning. we believe we see documents this afternoon as well. we always read the documents with joseph lavonia, the chief economist of america's. what are the thing you are tweaking here? >> interestingly enough, johnson was talking about the two tens with why the curve was flattening so much. that has been due to the markets expectation of the terminal fed's fund rate coming down significantly. on your bloomberg terminal, you ca

jonathan: lisa is waiting patiently. let's get to lisa. lisa: i'm drinking my tang and really loving this. what we are looking for today could give a little more drama to the fed meeting. jobless claims are really coming into focus. all jobs data are taking on new sniffing and's after chair powell said we have not made significant further progress. we have made progress. we are not there yet. it is because of the jobs numbers. they want to see big headline prints. is it because there's were nude volatility around the jobs readings we are getting? at 1:00 p.m., the all interesting seven year note auction. the u.s. selling if you do billion dollars of these notes. these tend to be a more -- selling $52 billion of these notes. these tend to be more volatile. why are bond yields so low? why have they gone lower after the previous fed meeting? he didn't say he had a clear answer, except for technicals for other things that we might not understand. after that, amazon reporting second quarter earnings, the last of the big tech behemoths. question

lisa: yes. jonathan: i can rely on you for the answer, lisa. thank you. mta coming at about five seconds . tom: you note that. -- you nailed that. jonathan: thank you, tom. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. just a little grumpy this morning, aren't you? all-time highs in the equity market, inflation dat is next. . this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, waiting for economic data in america. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. we have some inflation. a lot more than anticipated. on a month over month basis the cpi rises .9%. the forecast was for .5%. the poor rate up .9% -- the core rate up .9%. we had 5.4% for the cpi and the core at 4.5%. significant increases this last month. let's take a look at some of the ones we have. in terms of the change, food is up .8%. energy up 1.5%. that includes a 2.6% rise in gasoline prices, which is going t

lisa, we are not doing that. lisa: never done. jonathan: you take a drink, relax. take a deep breath. tom: tang. even when they don't launch a rocket which we have 10. lisa: the idea here, they really pointed to the return to office and how that has really liked behind -- has really like the kind -- has really lagged behind. really, the proof will be when people go back to school. as a parent, it makes a huge difference in terms of your ability to leave home and actually focus. jonathan: you will be proud of us. we talked about this all last week, and i think it is a really important topic to discuss because in september, the additional unemployment insurance expires, and many people want is by the return to school to develop. this is really important for how the supply side of the economy develops. i anticipate this will be a massive part of the discussion at the fed. lisa: this is a big part of why wall street banks have picked september as the time to get back to the office. everyone is looking to that key september date to figure out what the new normal looks l

john and lisa have a wide -- jon and lisa have a wide set of questions.1, what are we going to in this next round of wearing or not wearing a mask? joshua: it is probably not a uniform recommendation given that vaccination aries so much across the -- varies so much across the country. where there is low vaccination rate and the virus is very common, it will probably make sense for people to put masks on indoors. i it is just to protect people until we can beat the virus back again. tom: what is the efficacy of a federal approach versus every city,, every town, every zip code for themselves? joshua: there is a middle ground here where the cdc gives guidelines. this is where you should seriously consider putting in place a mask requirement. based on the condition of the pandemic and each area, i think that would be a good idea. lisa: we are seeing protests around the world saying enough is enough. why should we live our lives in fear? we should just move on. how much do you respond to these protests and acknowledge we are moving into a phase where we have a

jonathan: lisa, your reaction? lisa: i agree with marilyn. interesting, one of my colleagues based in china says that we get these disruptions every three years, so we are on target. essentially, we have a government that is aiming for greater economic and political stability. i don't think they have any interest in disrupting the economy. marilyn is right printing the pboc and their actions. i think it will be relatively contained, don't really see a bleed out into the broader economy globally or into dm. jonathan: ashish shah, final word. ashish: i see two huge opportunities coming out of this. you can buy chinese government bond etf's and take advantage of the policy easing that china will inevitably be putting into stabilize their economy. second, asian high-yield, you have the baby with the bathwater trade. you can buy bonds with 10% yield that you will get paid back on. that is an opportunity in the marketplace that you cannot find anywhere else. jonathan: alongside lisa coleman, marilyn watson, appreciate your time. that does it for us

how much did we miss lisa? jonathan: how bearish did that get? lisa: come on.han: five-day winning streak on the s&p. get happy. lisa: the question is why is 10 year treasury yields at one point 2%. jonathan: here we go -- tom: here we go. lisa: if this is an indication of the economic outlook, it is bearish. if not, what said an indication of? jonathan: perhaps that's why the nasdaq is at record highs. jonathan: this is going to go well today. i heard a rumor that maybe i will be joining you for the fed show tomorrow afternoon. even how this is going, i'm having a rethink -- given how this is going, i'm having a rethink. chairman powell news conference. tom: nice segue. jonathan: many people believe it has the space, the reason of piling up to take a punt and wake -- weight. tom: you will probably not get the last question in a press conference. jonathan: your equity market five-day winning streak. it's a tuesday on the s&p 500. all-time highs. i've got to stretch it another 30. 12494 on tends. yields come in four basis points. the story is about stress and ch

lisa: slowing sales going forward. channeling tom keene as part of his contract, he says that the pendulum, that is what we are facing today. in all honesty, that seems to be the trend, the idea that higher prices is leading to slower growth, and the idea that we are leading to peak growth in what follows, jan hatzius summed it up. how much does this weigh on a host of companies that were thought of as unstoppable? jonathan: gdp growth north of 5%, and we are having a conversation about stagflation. kailey: if you ask jan hatzius, going back down to 1.5% to 2% in the back have a 2022, but whether or not consumers are actually going to tolerate these higher prices come up that means for growth, but also for companies because we are seeing important in this earnings season is the ability to pass higher input costs onto those consumers. if consumers prove unwilling which is that going to mean for the margins of some of these big corporate? jonathan: stag light sounds like a drink you would have before a wedding. [laughter

lisa: they will placate the authorities. in light of the move we are seeing more broadly in the chinese equities that suffered more civility over the last days -- severely over the last days. i meeting was held with banking executives in china, concerned with market moves. the fact they are concerned about market moves is new and giving people some encouragement. however, and this perhaps a jesses tom' eh -- addresses tom's eh, there's a regulatory uncertainty in china that was not there. jon: we don't need any more sound effects. [laughter] let's get to the s&p 500 up .2%. yields higher by three basis points. you have a drink, takei. you're a stronger, too. dollar weaker 1.1874. lisa: those are going to be some important data points am looking for. tom mentioned the 8:30 a.m. data dump. we expect 8.5% on an annualized basis, near record pace, up from less than 7% in the previous reading, 6.4% i believe. the key reading, is there any sign of the slowdown of the deceleration so many people expect? a bank of america economist

lisa what you see -- lisa, what do you see?t are the factors keeping people out of the labor market? is it a transitory issue of childcare, virus, and enhanced unappointed benefits, or is there a stickier persistence to this lack of participation? echoes to the point, which areas of the market are adding jobs fastest versus not think -- nothing momentum? tom: the good idea of looking at the participation rate in these different ratios is to look at the ratio of actual employed. i will look in the middle and i'm guessing 25 to 54 years old, that usually employable america, that dynamic as well. jonathan: look at the employment to population ratio. that is another way of telling the same story. a sharp reopening and then flatten again. fed official after fed official, especially the doves, are making a point they want to see that's get back to art was. lisa: you raise this question, and a really important one, how much the fed affects that. at one point is this structural? joe kerry hall was talking about looking at companies tha

lisa: i love that is considered a bad thing.ple are able to repay their loans on time and they are not racking up huge credit card bills. they are saving money. what a terrible thing for banks. there is a question of whether these banks are a buy, given the valuations, if treasury yields do not go up and if people continue to use their savings to the extent that people are expecting for the rest of this year. kenneth: that is correct. these stocks are still valued well below the valuation of the market, the s&p 500. they are very attractive for investors and portfolios of growth and income or equity and income portfolios or funds. when you look ahead, the mass of the economy growing, whether it is the u.s. or global, is not likely to be this move we have seen this year. we thank you need to have some -- we think you need to have some momentum. the momentum for the second half of this year is neither going to come from the consumer or from the widening in terms of net interest margins and higher net interest income and a big way

lisa: i was struck by an april survey of u.s.g those that lost jobs, 30% of them did not want to return. that is up 20% last july. these frictions are complicated and will take time. jonathan: this is the biggest variable for anyone's outlook in the labor market? where do you think the participation rate will be? lisa: and how do we understand what is behind that friction? is it people deciding to go to a new career? is it people who would rather get unemployment? is it people worried about the health consequences? is it ambiguity around people will be working from home or back to the office? all of these are factors. jonathan: i am with you. i will run will i am pleased we got through two or three hours without talking about football. tom: why didn't he knocking the ball? jonathan: i knew you had a question. don't know. tom: 25. what he has been through. jonathan: don't know. what a player. coming up on the open, greg peters. tom: you'd -- jonathan: you do a wonderful job of pretending you know what you're talking about every we

nice to get the counterpoint, lisa. lisa: looking around corners.laughter] jonathan: down a little more than 0.1%. and bonds, yields lower by two or three basis point on tens. in foreign-exchange come euro-dollar -0.1 poor percent -- in foreign-exchange, euro-dollar -0.1%. lisa: what is this telling us? can we get any single, or is this any signal, or is -- any signal, or is this just the fed sticking its them on the market? we get durable goods orders for the month of june. there could be weakness in other sectors. to the degree that there is, it is due to supply shortages, labor shortages -- supply disruptions, labor shortages, and other things. pointing out the positive that could potentially be in that data. 10:00 a.m., we get july consumer data. this is going to be a compelling read of people's confidence getting jobs. there continues to be friction here with respect to the participation rate. highly suppressed relished to where we were pre-pandemic -- suppressed relative to where we were pre-pandemic. there were thoughts that it was due to une

lisa: that turned out well. talk about the idea of transitory and the idea of good and bad inflation. we are getting a sense that it could go to $100 a barrel and food prices spiking due to a drought out west in the united states good at what point does this become a deflationary? randall: they are looking at transitory and long-term factors. the concern is, could enough transitory factors lead to long-term change. that would be a change in inflation expectations. people have been getting low wage increases for quite some time. that is not changing where we have seen a significant spike in consumer prices on a variety of things. much more pressure in the labor market, where we are seeing bonuses being offered for people applying for jobs and does it turn into a one-off bonus to higher wages. and then firms say our costs have gone up and we can charge more. then individual workers say i want more wages and when markets are strong i can demand more or go elsewhere. we are seeing a high number of people quitting th

lisa: you just did, but go ahead. we are all drinking.er] brian: you are right, at some point the solution to higher prices is higher prices. we have unleashed a lot of pent-up demand, and you see it in things like hotels and airlines. but how many vacations can we all go on at the same time businesses are working to rebuild inventory? i think prices will start to moderate then. you kind of see it in lumber prices. lumber prices are all the way back to where they were after all of the handwringing over it because there was a slowdown in demand and prices got too high. tom: can we ask how many vacations we can go on? [laughter] let's not do that now. jonathan: i wonder if the more appropriate question is a different one. whenever you bring up the word transitory, people are arguing about different things. the question others are asking is a simple one. do you think the push higher in price is now will overwhelm a sustainable recovery and force the fed to come in early? i think that is really the question we've got to grapple with. what is

lisa: thank you, tom. that's actually where i wanted to go, this idea that there is so much, and i hate this phrase, but cash on the sidelines here, as people aren't fully invested yet. how much will that spur evaluations to even higher heights, despite the fact that all of this is already priced in? binky: i think it is more about where our multiples and earnings as far as the cash argument is concerned. i think it was a very valuable argument at the middle of last year, and we made the argument at the time, but now if you look at cash levels relative to the market cap of the s&p 500, it is a lot lower as opposed to being on the high side. there's plenty of cash, but what is the buying part -- the buying power relative to the s&p 500, it is actually very low, i would say. jonathan: do you go through these big three names and work out what is next after the close today? binky: i think this recovery has been like no other. i think the principal has been to remain flexible. if you told me 15 months ago that

lisa: it is time for me. jonathan: spare a thought for lisa this morning, tom.crete time still. tom: what we are going to do is migrate. this is the first important conversation we had. you can hear it in janet yellen's phrases. the secretary of treasury has an exceptionally insightful interview. i look at one single quote here, which literally sounds like it could come out of poland or belgium, or i will let you pick one of the scandinavian countries. here is janet yellen on our common needs. this is a real shift on how the world is going to cooperate to make sure capital income bears its fair share of paying for common needs. is there any history where the congress of the united states gives a damn about common needs? >> what they need to grapple with right now is figuring out whether this needs to be legislation or a treaty that needs to be endorsed and approved by congress, but secretary yellen has told our colleague in brussels in an interview that the republican side will see a lot of requests, a lot of encouragement from businesses saying to protect ameri

lisa: was that what he was talking about? jonathan: i'm not confirming that it was with that airline. i'm suggesting that michael mckee had a difficulty with an airline, and one particular airline did apologize. tom: it is a broken model, period. jonathan: with that specific company, or the industry? tom: across the industry. it is a broken model across the industry. jonathan: equity futures advanced 0.02%. yields higher by a couple of basis points to 1.2 not 53% -- to 1.2593%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm la right -- i'm laura wright. pfizer plans to launch a study of a vaccine that targets the delta variant. delta is blamed for the surge of covered cases in the u.s. and elsewhere. pfizer says the first batch has been made. federal reserve chair jerome powell and his colleagues are likely to exercise patience today. policymakers are almost certain to hold interest rates near zero at the end of a two-day policy meeting. the delta variant is seen as given powell another reason to st

i much lisa -- i am much lisa, let's go come under 12.he head of pediatrics at boston children's hospital was adamant in his conversation with us, it takes time with children. jonathan: pfizer at $41.80, down 0.8%. mcdonald's, sales and the u.s. versus 2019 up nearly 15%. in the rest of the world, they are hardly up at all. just a two-year comparison there. u.s. looks good. the rest of the world is pretty flat. tom: well, that is the virus. jonathan: more earnings still to come. facebook after the close a little later. before we get to the fed, we've got to catch up with john ryding. we will do that shortly. up two on the s&p 500, advancing 0.05%. up about a basis point on tens to 1.2527%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you c

lisa: the u.s. government has been trying to have them postpone this digital tax while they come up with a comprehensive oecd to get done a more comprehensive global tax. if they go their own way, it could be harder for the administration to push through any sort of global taxation through congress. there is a ton of questions. you still have holdouts. hungary, estonia, ireland. this takes away their leverage to get companies to go to their country. what kind of negotiating leverage does janet yellen have given the fact she needs to wrangle together congress to get the u.s. on board and the parameters of that? >> it is a very good question. right now the leverage they have is global momentum. i spoke to the german finance minister after his meeting with the secretary and he said the train is going. given the fact you have so many countries even in the developing world coming on board. you go to the point that this goes the hands of congress. republicans do not like this and it will be very difficult

lisa desjardins is back her story.us of trees, that sealed her victory last night. >> that is correct! david: a 14-year-old from louisiana -- lisa: a 14-year-old from louisiana became the first african-american towin the scripps national spelling bee. >> i've been working on it for two years, and to have the best possible outcome was really good. lisa: the only previous black ampion was an international student from jamaica in 1998. >> i hope that in a few years, i will see a lot more african-american females and males doing well in the spelling bee, because it is a really good thing. it is a gate opener to being interested in education. lisa: competitive spelling came relatively late in her life, only two years ago, with daily study sessions about seven hours long, reviewing nearly 13,000 words per day. >> i just study it. getting ready for scripps. lisa: she emerged from more than 200 contestants and rees past 10 other --breezed past 10 other competitors. a stark contrast when eight people took home the prize. but wi

tom: lisa: lisa: -- lisa: are you saying the vix could be a counterweight or non-correlated asset to the 60/40 portfolio you preach it has correlated? dean: the vix and tlt are correlated. one of those is not an edge. these two things are moving the same way. they're supposed to move in opposite ways. i still think volatility is one of the only anti-fragile assets out there. when things get really bad in markets there is no doubt that volatility is going to spike. there is in exactly the same confidence we can have anymore that interest rates are going to rally as they have or the bond market will rally in a risk on or risk off fashion. we have taken a bit of a breather as folks have started to buy into maybe peak growth or disinflationary, but we have seen the bond market be the cause of the risk off. we saw that paper tantrum type activity a couple months ago and you have to wonder what that next 30 to 40 basis point move higher in the vix means for the equity market outlook. i'm not convinced that risk on risk off is in play anymore. i think it might be the opposite. jon: good to

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.quity futures down 14 on the s&p to 4354. yields in two basis points to about 1.33%. that line from steve major of hsbc, we cannot afford higher rates. tom: i cannot confirm enough the difference of opinions on price change right now and how it folds into the interest rate markets. we make fun of lisa and the pendulum of ominousness, what you know what? everyone has an opinion. jonathan: with very little confidence or conviction. tom: exactly. jonathan: that's where we are. it feels like this tipping point, and we are still trying to work it all out. i don't think we will get a clear answer until the end of the year. people keep bringing up september and q4, for good reason. tom: what i know, yesterday you and i and lisa got whiplash off of steve major of hsbc, a full pro, saying yields stable, yields lower, and a bunch of ceos and pseudo-economists saying yields higher. i will be talking to james bullard at 8:00 a.m. with michael mckee. jonathan: looking forward to that. tom: i'm sorr

-- over, lisa? lisa: yeah, i think it will trickle out.athan: on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪ jonathan: for our audience worldwide on tv and radio this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene it lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. waiting for equally -- waiting for economic numbers in america. yields are higher by three basis points on 10. it is the wrong side -- the wrong kind of upside supplies -- the wrong kind of upside surprise on jobless claims. waiting to see if we get a revision. the wrong kind of upside supplies. 400,000, the median estimate 385,000. gdp, 6.5%. downside surprise. 8.4% median estimate. tom: will have to watch the market reaction. two important data points. two weeks in a row of challenged claims. you heard me say the chart is elegant, it is not elegant anymore. a revision off of 419,000 last week is important. good morning david rosenberg and others cautioning over enthusiasm over present gdp and jobs. 8.4% to 6.5%. jonathan: not what we were looking for. here is the price action. equity futur

tom: lisa, you answer that. i think it is going to be interesting whether jay powell really banks the table on more fiscal stimulus at a time when it is so controversial and politicized. we came into the year expecting so much physical spending. now you have an economy that is going, and you have less support for actual physical spending. how much are they going to say that is necessary still to get the economy going? jonathan: very diplomatic. [laughter] chairman powell coming up a little later on this afternoon. full coverage on tv and radio, with the chairman testifying on capitol hill at 12:00 eastern. equity futures positive a little more than 0.1%. a back into the bond market after a messy second half in yesterday's session. we break 1.40% to the downside, 1.3913%, and we reclaim on dollar $.18 on eurodollar -- reclaim $1.18 on eurodollar. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: i from new york city, for our audience worldwide -- live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance

lisa: will the likes of j.p.ositors if they see their balance sheets well? devin: i am not sure how they technically turn away depositors, but deposits are in less demand because every bank is so flush with deposits. you've already dragged deposits down to effectively zero but there are other things that banks do to deter large influxes of deposits. you have a market shock, people could bring more money, more cash into banks or in other financial institutions. that is something that everyone is looking at but you are 100% right, the value is not what it was because on the others the acid group -- the acid group is not the same. tom: one more question, are any banks brave enough to do the catalyst of acquiring a european bank institution, for example a beleaguered bank in zurich, or any of them brave enough to do something bold? devin: bold is difficult, because you are obviously opening a pandora's box. so that is not what we have envisioned for what incremental m&a looks like. you can always talk about mna for a

lisa was always smiling. lisa was... so kind. she was my best friend. she was a fantastic mummy.g for anybody. and... she wasjust doing the right thing. that�*s all she was doing. and... i just don�*t want what has happened to her to be brushed under the carpet. if anything good can come of what has happened to lisa, so this does not happen to other people. you know, we sat there in the intensive care unit and we saw what they did to my beautiful wife to try and save her. i don�*t want that to happen to other people. i don�*t want anybody else to have to tell their children that their mummy�*s not coming home. as i say, if she can be remembered in that way, that she has done some good, that would be a positive. gareth, i am so, so sorry. thank you very much for talking to us today. ok, thanks. and victoria also spoke to our medical editor fergus walsh — who talked us through the risks associated with the vaccine and explained a little about lisa�*s condition. let me tell you about about this condition. in lisa�*s case, we have to wait for the inquest but the certificate talks abo

lisa: single-handed.in the bond market telling after that empire manufacturing data coming out. the hottest on record. fascinating. tom: john is off the set so you and i can talk about bitcoin. a little fragile. bitcoin under birdy 2000 -- bitcoin under 32,000. lisa: did you see yesterday that the founder of doge coin slammed all crypto assets, saying it was wealthy individuals enriching themselves. tom: we will listen to chariman powell to see if he is going along on the doge. it is an important interview. the symbolism of angela merkel visiting the white house, i believe the 4:00 hour this afternoon. they will have a joint appearance. we will do better on balance of power. thrilled to bring in the former ambassador of germany to the united states. looking forward to that. stay with us through the day. chairman powell coming up. on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television, good morning. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. 30 minutes until the opening bel

lisa became just aother nameless caretaker. their entire history together permanently erased. whisper of their love must have remained because lisa says all of a sudden he began courting her as if they just started dating until one day a wedding scene came on tv. peter pointed to the screen and said, let's do it. >> and i said, do what? >> he pointed again and i said, you want to get married? he got this grin on his face and he said, yeah. so he fell in love with me again. >> reporter: lisa accepted his proposal and a few months ago she staged a wedding for her already husband. >> i can't even describe to you how magical it was. he was so present and he was so happy and it was very touching. >> peter, you may kiss your bride. >> reporter: lisa said peter hadn't been this lucid in weeks. unfortunately, it was a cinderella moment. the clock struck 12 and by the next morning, this wedding, too, was lost to the fog. >> yes. >> reporter: but lisa says she fully expected that. >> i am the one who's going to remember that and that's going to help me heal later because it really is a

>>> lisa, thank you. in the south bay, parts of santa clara county will be in a heat advisory this weekend. abc7 news reporter amanda del castillo shows us how folks are trying to stay cool. >> reporter: hiding from the heat in san jose means jamming, activities into the cooler evenings. get ready, no nighttime relief is inspected for this weekend's bay area heat wave. >> not fun. i don't like it. >> reporter: we met 13-year-old elijah at chavez, where the city is taking advantage of the area of shade. elsewhere, hot amateurs have called for the activation of three cooling centers across the city friday through sunday. the move follows the national weather service of heat advisory, lasting just as long. >> we opened cooling centers last month. during the activation, we saw about 60 people over the course of two days. people are still utilizing the centers as a place to cool down. >> reporter: fridays issued flex alert force them outdoors away from ac and any large appliances. a few ways the california ind

>> lisa, we will look out for that.>>> just ahead the tokyo summer olympics are under way after a ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ monitor, check and lock down you money with security from chase. control feels good. chase. make more of what's yours. >>> an olympic opening ceremony marking dreams come true for some athletes but not everywhere is positive to see the games come forward. 117 positive covid-19 cases have already been confirmed at the olympics. abc reporter morgan norwood has the latest. >> reporter: after being delayed for a year due to the coronavirus pandemic, the tokyo olympics officially under way. the japanese player lighting the flame. the parade of nations including athletes from 205 countries. the opening ceremonies sparkling as usual, but unlike any kick-off seen before, with no fans in attendance. only about 950 people present, including government officials, vips and foreign dignitaries. among them, the first lady dr. jill biden. france set to host the next summer olympics in 2024, the theme moving forward the encoura

talking about august when we see you next. >>> lisa thank you. this morning new data released from the cdc has local and national officials sounding the alarm. the data shows the delta variant is twice as infectious as previously thought. the cdc says an outbreak in provincetown massachusetts helped lead to the new recommendation that even fully vaccinated people should wear masks indoors in areas hit hard by covid. in response to the delta variant the fda is also shifting around some resources so that it can give pfizer's vaccine full approval. the fda also announced it is expanding emergency authorization for the antibody drug cocktail from regeneron. it can now be used as a preventative covid treatment in some people. >>> two bay area hospitals are seeing a surgeon break through cases among workers, we have team coverage from two members of the vaccine team, abc7 news reporter kate larson starts us off and she found out how hundreds of san francisco hospital employees are getting infected with covid. >> reporter: two major san francisco hospit

those pictures, lisa, are hard to see.they are scary and show the reality of the drought. >> totally. very dramatic there. >>> we are seeing an expansion of the low cloud deck and with the ceiling, we are looking at fog in the city and north bay with visibility reduced up in santa rosa, down along the peninsula. but it is a sunny afternoon, a breezy afternoon, and showing you this vantage point because by tomorrow we are looking at cloud cover increasing and moisture from the desert southwest with an area of high pressure allowing for the panhandle of dry lightning through the mountains where it has been hazy. they have had all the smoke from the rack fire and also looking at perhaps dry lightning our way into sunday, monday and tuesday. right now it is all about the clouds at sfo where it is 54 downtown, 57 in oakland, low 50s in morgan hill and pacifica. a look from our east bay, emryville, a gray start. kind of used to that, right? 48 in novato, 56 in napa with upper 50s and a little wind blowing through the delta there

lisa, thank you. in the south bay, parts of santa clara county will be a heat advisory this weekend. abc7 news reporter amended all concilio tells us how folks are trying to stay cool. >> reporter: hiding from the heat in san jose means jamming bay area heat wave. s lief >> not fun. i don't like it. >> reporter: we met 13-year-old elijah at plaza at the cesar chavez, or the city of san jose is taking advantage of the shade. elsewhere, they have called for the activation of three cooling centers across the city friday through sunday. the move follows a national weather service heat advisory lasting just as long. >> we opened cooling centers last month. during the activation, we saw about 60 people visit over the course of three days. people are still utilizing the centers, is really a place to cooldown. >> reporter: friday issued flex alert force that outdoors away from acn use of any large appliances. of you is the california independent system operator is encouraging voluntary conservation. >> we are

>> lisa, thank you.eveloping news with the coronavirus, california's positivity rate has surged to 5.2%, above the world health organization's threshold for reopening. that last time we were at 5% was february 8. california reported nearly 8,000 cases yesterday. and there is this from the cdc. the agency says all current cases in the u.s. are caused by variants with delta making up the majority. the original strain is no longer detected. it is likely those in vulnerable groups will need a booster shot according to "the new york times". the biden administration is evaluating the data but officials expect those that are 65 or older or with a compromised immune system to need one. and the bay area's fourth covid wave is only getting worse with cases continuing to climb and hospitalizations just reached the highest point since march. we have more now on what we can expect moving forward. >> reporter: top health officials across the bay area say if we are not careful, the delta variant could move back our pro

lisa: that's correct.points out that the idea of legalization is popular in conservative states, as well. judy: lisa desjardins keeping track of all of it, thank you. lisa: you're welcome. vanessa: i'm vanessa ruiz at "newshour" west in for stephanie sy. we'll return to judy woodruff after the latest headlines. the chair of the federal reserve, jerome well, said inflation will stay high for a few months before easing, telling a congressional hearing that the problem is due to temporary fallout from the pandemic. covid-19 infections are surging again worldwide after falling for nine weeks. the world health organization reports a 10% increase last week. cases in tokyo are higher than at any time since may, just nine days before it hosts the summer olympics. cases in california are the highest since march. in south africa, rioting and looting rocked parts of the country overnight. police say more than 70 people have been killed and 1200 arrested since last week. nick schifrin reports. nick: it started as poli

lisa, what do you think of that? on-the-fly. >> that is why you are sitting there and i am sitting over here. >> greg: while she was over there talking, she said "turnover," and i started thinking about turnovers. that is why i am sitting there and you are sitting over there. maybe you could learn something. all right, red meat, give it to me. >> you kind of turned the tables, i was not expecting you to come out pro-kamala. that was a twist. >> greg: i have been in the situation she is in, except it is probably real for her. >> she also sat there and said joe biden was a racist -- >> greg: that's true. >> and then when she was asked about it, it was a debate. those are really heavy charges. basically, you might as well just throw pedophile on top of it. clearly she has a terrible human being, but i think coming from joe biden, because you see all of those articles, concern joe biden is putting this terrible portfolio on her lap and giving her impossible things she is not going to be able to solve so she ends up looki