lisa: have you gotten the shot yet? jonathan: no. lisa: the line was too long.athan: how long were you trying that for? lisa: i don't want to talk about it. jonathan: lisa with us all morning, i am jonathan ferro. tom keene is back on monday. coming up, tom kinmonth from abn amro bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way ♪ it's time you make the rules. so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get nationwide 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get nationwide 5g included and save up to $300 a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." it was looking good for the nasdaq and then this morning happened. we are down on nasdaq 100 futures. about three percentage points th

lisa: i don't too. [laughter] he basically was reading from a script that said infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure. you want to talk about china -- infrastructure. the main question is, how big of a spending plan can they get unilaterally with just democrats. it seems the bipartisan effort has gone off the table. jonathan: even something as sensitive as gun control pivoted to infrastructure. we all witnessed that. [laughter] we saw that play out in the last 24 hours. . the other thing we heard about consistently was unity. and then we heard something else -- i am unifying even if i can't unify congress. sounded really loud and clear to me, "we are going it alone now." lisa: there is baggage, the idea that obama tried to get a coalition and get things done through consensus he didn't get as much done as people expected. he was basically responding to that and saying, i am here to get things done. if that means going it alone, we will change filibuster rules. that is a new tone in washington se

lisa: very confusing.ou were talking about madame lagarde and how she didn't really add much clarity to the issue, but they really have a tough message to give. short term, they need to provide more accommodation. this really is the key. the acceleration of purchases, what are they going to be buying? italian bonds? jonathan: maybe. just compare and contrast the forecast to what you'll get from the fed next week. lisa: night and day. jonathan: barely revised higher, the growth forecast. looking for something in and around 4%. look at what we are getting as a guide from wall street right now on the sell side. we've got 6%, 7% gdp growth this year, and the fed, i imagine couple will have a huge upward revision. lisa: they have to because that is the reality people are looking at. but the question is, how do they then talk about the reaction function? how do they take that higher gdp forecast and explain how they will change policy according to the strengths? jonathan: the outlook looks good. what do you want

lisa: plunging about 14%. very much about emerging markets and the idiosyncrasies and what is true more pervasive rates? in turkey, the leader runs the turkish bank. to see a 10% move this is a country that is built up credibility over the last few months. many believe the turkish leader had actually gone down a path he would stay down which is orthodox central banking. now it's terribly unorthodox all over again we are talking about the present running the central bank and the new governor, did he get to do what needs to be done? many people are doubtful which is why you see the massive move in the fx market. lisa: frankly, it's a huge reserve so -- reversal. the bank that was getting things under control and lead the lyrics one of the biggest gains since november versus the dollar but there is a larger point and that is my question. it's about policy risk. how much are we depending on policy to be a certain way and how much does that risk disrupt everything weatherby the fed or federal government with respec

lisa: it has.t the same time, there is a sense -- with respect to crude, the idea that will are less mobile than they had been earlier in the year. as the virus numbers plateau or go higher, people are not going around much and spending money on services. how long this lasts is a big russian. -- is a big question. how much is boiled a real barometer and how much is it an unequal corollary? jonathan: your price action in the equity market down 17 on the s&p, up on the nasdaq. softer on the euro, euro-dollar-1.18. all the way up from 175 down to a clean break of 160 on the u.s. 10 year. crude, down about 2.86%. a real turnaround in the bond market. we can't up recently with -- who talked about these intraday ranges. over the last week, it is interesting to see what the range has been. all the way up to 175, a clean rate at 160. what is interesting is high yields -- now we are talking about the cyclical trade breaking down. we are taking a pause and now it is russell down, small caps, too. lisa: how m

lisa: not yet.ere is the worry -- if you get a risk off field, how much -- we have seen the worst start to the year since the 1980's when you take a look at how much the losses have come in based on that rate rise and based on the fact that people are not going as much there for a safe haven. you start to wonder how much that will feed on itself and create a tightening, even though the data comes in well. jonathan: things will get better -- that is the story, that is the market. if you are in opposition for that, sorry, you got things wrong. lisa: although people will be sorry who work at those companies who want to borrow if they cannot bar at that rate. jonathan: the same kind of rate compared to a month ago, two months ago. lisa: but this is the reason why jay powell did not push back. at some point, there will be a tipping point. we are not anywhere close, and that seemed to be the point. jonathan: counting you down to a pays will report at 8:30 eastern. your yield comes in a couple of basis poi

lisa: beyonce deserved it. jonathan: coming up, albert ko, yell university medicine department chair -- yale university medicine department chair. this is bloomberg. ritika: here is first word news. there has not been a major federal tax hikes since 1993. bloomberg has learned that president biden wants to change that. the higher taxes will pay long-term economic recovery program. the plan would include initiatives on infrastructure, climate, and expanded health for poor americans. the president would like to appeal portions of donald trump 's tax bill that benefited wealthy individuals. headed to the u.s. border with mexico, putting a spotlight on a surge of immigrants on the frontier they say is the result of president biden's immigration policies. a dozen lawmakers will be on a trip today to a detention center in el paso. in germany, chancellor merkel is feeling the rest of the voters. her christian democratic union crashed to its worchester results since world war ii in two regional elections -- worst resul

lisa: get it out. jon: i'll get there. lisa: i know. jon: foreign-exchange, we stay there, 117.93. up about .25%. lisa: i think this is fair to say this is a turning a market, insert of some catalyst beyond what we have seen. we have all of these competing narratives. i think one key narrative will be personal spending. we got a read on what we saw in february, personal income and spending, and the key pcae. expect everyone to shrug this off. i think that is the takeaway for a lot of the data, we are expecting the personal spending to plunge the most since april. after january, a 10 percent jump as a result of stimulus payments that went out in that month. that waned last month. this month, they may restart with that $1400 check, but the -- but it is currently no man's land. patrick parker is going to be interviewed, expecting a lot of talk on inflationary impulses. the key issue is, when will the fed taper their monthly bond purchases? at 4:30 p.m. yesterday, i did look at the fed's balance sheet. it's a new record, but just in thing upward. the question is, how big can it get bef

lisa: i agree.ink it is important to know that not all of the act that was passed, the $1.9 trillion plan, most of it has not been spent yet. that is one key question to janet yellen today and congress, a question of how much has actually been deployed. how much more has to get back into the economy? that will also give a sense of how much more of a boom there will be as this filters into state and local governments, as this filters into plans for health care and beyond. to me, that affects growth so much, and the uncertainty in the pause you are feeling in today's markets. jonathan: the house financial services committee holding that hearing with jay powell and secretary yellen at midday washington, d.c. time. coming up on this program, megan greene, harvard kennedy school senior fellow, on policy down in washington, and policy in d.c., not just on the physical side. president kaplan and the dallas fed really making some waves going into this hearing. he sees a hike in 2022. that is his view. he se

lisa: when lisa -- jon: when lisa starts talking about the pendulum of boom, we should worry.ple leverage cash right away. [laughter] i'm not getting there yet. jon: that outlook is better on the vaccine front. we will have the conversation, next, with dr. amos and algia. -- i'd algia. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. pleasant and biden is planning to take on the nations challenge of any president biden is planning on taking on the nation's challenge. he will revamp the tax code, outline his plans tomorrow in a speech. the president's remark will lay out the infrastructure part of a three chilean dollars spending package. social spending programs will be unveiled next month. immediate crisis at the suez canal blockage has ended, but the battle over damages is beginning. it is estimated the cost of the closure was $10 billion a day. cargo has been delayed days if not months, likely to lead to a flood of claims by everyone affected by the shipping line -- from the shipping line to oil producers. the new target is 2.5 billion doses. i on t

we are trying to maintain the standards here, lisa. lisa: clearly. [laughter] jonathan f: lisa.isa: what? jonathan f: deep breath. it's monday. plenty of time to be bearish and go for people about whether they are raising their price target. lisa: honestly, i think it was an important thing to note. jonathan f: coming up later today on bloomberg television and radio, jp morgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon, 1:30 eastern. looking forward to that. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate democrats will not try to raise the minimum wage is part of the $1.9 trillion relief package. they had considered including tax penalties on big companies that pay low wages, along with incentives for smaller companies to pay higher minimums, but it became clear over the weekend that getting all 50 democratic senators on board would be difficult. the house passed the stimulus bill saturday. donald trump told a group supporters he is laying the groundwork for a third presidential campaign. the former president stopped a hair short of declari

lisa: hold on a second. and i didn't have an answer for you last time because i didn't have that much time. i have a couple more seconds. jonathan: you've got an hour. lisa: ok, and our on short-term fed policy -- ok, an hour on short-term fed policy. on the long end, on 10 year, on 30 year treasury yield, that affects the borrowing costs of the united states and the willingness of fiscal policy makers to borrow more money and invest in the economy. both are of concern to the fed. the question is how did they achieve rates at a level they see as sustainable. tom: where are those short-term rate hikes? lisa: they are already starting to be modeled in in 2023. tom: they are worried about march 17 and the fed meeting afterwards. i can do this on the bloomberg professional service, on radio, on tv. arch 17th, april 28, and june 16. that used to be long-term fed gazing. now we are out to 2024. jonathan: the whole point of the new framework, the communication of the last nine or 10 months, has been to say we are n

lisa has been on this point. we have a lot of savings and a lot of cash in money market funds, but where is it coming from? direct aid, savings, or is it because there is debt that has not been paid? lisa: all of the debt moratoria. people deferred rent. that will get paid back with these. saving there is a question whether. they will be secure enough in their job prospects to spend. then what will they spend on? will they go have dinner? get haircuts? tom: they will do what they do. we will grow our way out of this is the optimist belief. the optimist is buttressed with record data. dow futures up 160 points. the vix 22 handle earlier, 23 now. i have some movement. six basis points in the 10 year yields. jonathan: we left at 145. as equities and bond yields are up, it is the right kind of lift. tom: a three-hour simulcast. we want you to tune into all three hours because john covered this very much so in our first hour this morning. we saw that 107 weak yen. jonathan: let's get alicia levine. let's start with th

lisa: it is a casino.ederated hermes is saying this is perhaps so bad it is good, given the fact that there is so much money lying around in deposit accounts. a lot of people are saying, why not gamble on that if you are ga -- if you're are going to gamble on gamestop? jonathan: there's a defensive tone to this market. you see it in the nasdaq. nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%. you see it in the bond market. you also see it in for an exchange. in g10, the outperformer through much of this morning has come from the swissie and the japanese yen. euro-dollar $1.1912. it's this ongoing spat between the eu, the u.k., with astrazeneca very much in the middle of it all. lisa: the u.k. definitely looking much better than the eu when it comes to vaccine distribution. fed speak kicks off today. and :00 a.m. -- at 9:00 a.m., we have chair powell speaking at the innovation summit. i want to hear what he has to say about bain capital relief. why were they suddenly rolling back there exemptions that allowed to hold more treas

lisa: is that all?rification is -- one voter's verification is another voter's barrier. in atlanta, poll manager james hammond does not like the general direction he sees. james: every american should have the right to vote, and we should not we should not block them from having access at any at any point. lisa: many believe that access now hangs in the balance. judy: despite similar debates in several states with republican majority legislatures, here in washington, democrats in the u.s. house of representatives passed a landmark bill that would expand voting rights. lisa has been tracking that legislation as well and is here now. so, hello. tell us what is in this legislation passed by the house. lisa: judy, the house has been addressing issues that are about american identity and who gets power in america. that starts with hr one, the "for the people" act. let's look at the top lines in this sweeping bill. first, this bill would put no excuse absentee voting, easy absentee voting, and two weeks of ea

lisa: very much a focus on china-u.s.ensions, which appear to be rising after the confab in alaska. now we are having talks between the european union and the united states. really, the question you have raised, how much support will the u.s. and european union provide their companies to offset any negative ramifications from china's pushback to measures from the west? jonathan: we've got to talk about the relationship within the west, within the developed economies because that spat between europe and the u.k., there is a risk its bills over to the united states as well, over vaccinations. that is something i think was talked about coming into 2021, but not enough when it comes to the market. we go from synchronize growth to something more varied and broken down the net. it is not think were not on than that -- down then that. it is not synchronized. lisa: that is one aspect of this, the political posturing, trying to foist responsibility onto vaccine producers rather than how the messaging has gone across, who has gotte

lisa: are you trying to do it?et: for our listening -- lisa: for our listeners on radio, i don't think it quite works. [laughter] jonathan: that was larry summers on "wall street week." look out for that, people interview on bloomberg -- the full interview on bloomberg. inflation conversations are very mugs in the mix -- are very much in the mix. lisa mentioned something very interesting that is important for people in fixed income, and not talked about outside of fixed income. that is the supplemental leverage ratio that allows people to hold more treasuries. that expires. that exams and expires at the end of this month. -- that exemption expires at the end of this month. lisa: some estimates say banks could sell up to $200 billion of treasuries or more with rapid speed based on this not getting an extension, which raises a real political risk for markets at a time when it is hard to know what the appetite is to maintain easy policies for banks. jonathan: let's have that conversation with a real policy analyst dow

tom: does lisa go twice? -- jonathan: does lisa go twice. is that what you're implying.e been to a hockey game. it depends where you are. if you're in north dakota, pretty exciting. rangers game pretty exciting. you really want to have this conversation now? jonathan: i do. ian, thank you. tom: she holds court in the boxes at madison square garden right you can hear a pin drop when she walks in. jonathan: my fault, i will reset. we started this program around two hours and 40 minutes ago with the theme of capitulation, capitulating on this view that things could get better. that is the view of everyone right now. i think you have to take that view, the better forecast, the high-yield forecast we've seen across the board, and ask ourselves what it means for this market. a massive rotation. the movement small caps has been enormous. the move in financials and banks has been gigantic. to lisa's point she has asked repeatedly, we have seen the early cycle move. have we seen all of it? to borrow that line from bank of america, they say it is over. what is over? the pandemic?

lisa: a big decline there. mona mahajan mentioned this, talking about the retail investor being really involved last year. i really want to emphasize how much we are seeing retail investors perhaps take a pause themselves as they can actually spend money on things like airplane tickets. maybe not in europe, but certainly in the united states. they can actually go out and use their cash. this to me as one of the biggest swing factors in the next couple of months. jonathan: it plays into the broader theme. the cliche, you buy the rumor, sell the news. this is between peak expectations and peak growth. want to make a move before you see the data. you want to make a move around peak expectations, which is terribly difficult to do. we have started to see expectations really ramp up over the last several weeks. you see that in the forecast for tenure yields, the forecast for the u.s. economy, the gdp through 2021. lisa: it is one reason why i think jay powell's message is so difficult today at those hearings, alongsi

lisa: dr.ushback on the all clear that seemed to beginning consensus, that if you get a vaccine you will not be able to spread the virus. he seems to say we do not know that for sure. you still could what do you think, given data we have heard? dr. nuzzo: we have heard some data that makes me optimistic that we will see a reduction in transmission. i do not think we can say we have seen that with a lot of the data we have so far, that it will complete lee prevent transmission, but reduction in transmission is a win as far as i'm concerned. we've already defanged the virus. if we can also reduce cases, that would be great. tom: it is interesting here, the optimism of dr. nuzzo. the gap has never been wider. jonathan: in the euro zone, they have struggled to roll out this vaccine. a lot of people worried about supply can we park the worry now -- about supply. can we park the worry now? it feels like supply is not going to be an issue in this country. dr. nuzzo: people like me in a priority group

lisa: horrible.question is, as some of the companies look to move their employees out of high cost cities, how much will they ask them to take a pay cut versus going there? and did you read the story about how people are moving back to new york from florida as the summer starts to set in? it's a migration and a heated point of debate. tom: -- jonathan: it's about where the clients will be. of the clients are down there, they will be there to serve them. this idea that business travel will come back. if i could get an edge on you by seeing a client in person, we are both vaccinated and can shake hands. get on the plane. lisa: people want to break bread. really. jonathan: in the same room at some point. maybe. tom: north palm beach. $79 million. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, live on tv and radio, waiting for jobless claims in america. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. down 25 on the s&p. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. it is jobless cl

lisa vincent. sounds like a _ see one in person. lisa vincent.nd| see one in person. lisa vincent. | sounds like a great woman and i see one in person. lisa vincent. - sounds like a great woman and i hope your children have success in finding some of that artwork. that's about it from us here on sportsday. there's plenty of live football this evening that you can follow on the bbc sport website. and also on radio five live, because it is champion fleet action. chelsea against atletico madrid. all the details on the bbc sport website. for me and the bbc sport website. for me and the rest of the sportsday team, happy st. patrick's day. bye—bye. hello there. the uk weather continues to be pretty quiet in the same can't be said for the united states, where we have this severe thunderstorm breaking out with a risk of large hail and some intense tornadoes possible as well later on. those tornadoes could be on the ground for quite some time, so there is a risk of some damage across this part of the us. meanwhile, here in the uk, it's been a fine day for

lisa: a one time boosts.say that that infrastructure spending or the fiscal stimulus gets passed on march 15 at the democrats expected. that it is a one time affair. does that lead to longer-term inflation that is higher than what people are currently pricing in? sarah: i think we will see inflation settle at a faster pace than what we thought of the last cycle. we'll get a pop in this second quarter, but when we look out further, we are looking at inflation to run over 2%, may be two and a quarter over the next year and a half or so. i think that is a meaningful left, particularly when you think about how much the fed has struggled with inflation over the past decade, but it remains to be seen if it state -- stays persistently high. you need to focus on inflation expectations. does this become self reinforcing, have you actually broken that mentality of low inflation that has been so pervasive over the past decade where businesses feel like they can actually price higher, past higher cost to consumers. jonat

tom: but -- lisa: but who are they blaming? are they saying the vaccine does not work well enough or that it has not ramped up production enough? the european union considering emergency measures to ensure the vaccine supply. this comes at the same time as a slowdown in distribution of the astrazeneca vaccine despite dr. hama should all just saying they are wrong. tom: john, i need you to explain this. you have lead on this end it's not just the partition of europe and america, but of europe and the united kingdom. jonathan: nine to 10 months ago these negotiations started to rollout. what started is that the u.k. and the u.s. has secured these contracts earlier. they wanted to negotiate at the european level. it ended up taking longer. so what has happened? the astrazeneca story became the whipping child. the issue that i have now from the european leadership is that there's very little time whatsoever that they are taking any responsibility for what's going on in europe. that nation, that continent, but the u.k.'s using that

lisa: is that the message?urprised we didn't see more of a boom in certain equities on the heels of a $3 trillion proposal for infrastructure spending from the biden adminstration. i am wondering if that is the message, that it is unlikely this will get done, that this is a wish list more than a plan that is possible. kevin: it is a total wish list. and look, i hate to say this, but it bears repeating, if you are talking about cyber infrastructure, talking about laying a concrete lan in order to better protect from a national security perspective, and to some extent from energy resource perspective, fine. but there is still a lot of divide, chief among them how to pay for it. you've got democrats saying they want to raise taxes, republicans saying they are not going to budge, and play this forward. if you subscribe to the notion that republicans will win back control of the house of representatives in 2022, there is no way that a major tax overhaul would be able to get done and that the corporate tax rate would

lisa: fair.he other issue is people don't have a sense of how contagious somebody might be if they get infected, once they get vaccinated, so that could accelerate the spread that is already accelerating. jon: you are essentially saying it is a social issue or scientific issue, can these be grounded in social issues or scientific ones? lisa: that's a good question. i'm not going to answer it. we can asked one of our esteemed guests. tom: we have to go to break? i don't want to go. i want to talk about ethereum now. jon: i definitely want to go to break. lisa: [laughter] jon: this time the only person with that shelf? bowties and passports? ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your

lisa: heather boushey, thank you for being with us.oushey is a member of president biden's economic council, discussing some of the plans coming up and she is the former president and ceo of the washington center for equitable growth. some headlines crossing talking about vaccine nationalism and how johnson in the u.k. was encouraged by the fact that the european union does not want to see a blockade from the astrazeneca vaccine into the united kingdom. he also says a third wave of covid in europe is likely to reach the united kingdom. it seems like an outlier risk -- people have shrugged off the idea that we could get a resurgence with some of the mutations of the coronavirus 19 virus. this has been a concern. meanwhile in markets, you see a nasdaq outperforming as yields come down. nasdaq of 96 ahead of the open cap the dow up six. yields off of their early lows. built into a week of 200 $6 billion of treasury auctions. i am lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro on the open in a couple of minutes. tom keene back next week. this is "bloombe

tom: lisa, what do you think? lisa: you will do it anyway. jonathan: a fantastic lineup.ana aronov. victoria fernandez. joe perry hall -- jill carrey hall. an emily roland, who has been reluctant to invest internationally. an interesting conversation about good news is good news, for who? looking forward to that conversation later on this morning. i will run. i believe the next segment you will be talking about the royal family. lisa: thanks a lot. no we are not. jonathan: tom once the information for the royal family. lisa, you are now a royal correspondent. tom: i am looking at the star. jonathan: i am looking at the summary of the daily star with tom keene coming up shortly. from new york city, good morning. interesting time in the financial markets and one that will be written about for a long time. this is bloomberg. ritika: senate democrats made some changes to president biden's stimulus bill, mostly to appeal to moderates and comply with parliamentary rules. those changes are look not likely to keep the measure from sailing through the house. it will be a tight vot

lisa: oh, dear lord. seriously? jonathan: a bloomberg subscriber rights income "who is gareth -- writes in, "who is gareth?" [laughter] from new york come of this is "bloomberg surveillance," heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv. your equity market direction to be dictated by what happens in about 20 minutes' time, inflation in america. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the world's two largest jet leasing companies are coming together. general electric has agreed to combine its leasing business with rival aircap. aircap will receive $20 billion in cash and shares in the combined company. they will also get another $1 billion when the deal closes. one of the largest economic relief packages in u.s. history. the house is set to give final approval to president biden's $1.9 trillion package, likely to become law without getting a single republican vote in the house or senate. millions of american families will get one-time payments of $1400. there will also be more unemp

lisa: it is hard to see -- no. lisa: it is hard to see that ever happening.'s just too much divergence within the details. jonathan: coming up, kristin bitterly. it is great to be with you, tom. bond yields higher. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." a bit of outperformance on the small caps, underperformance on the nasdaq after a massive day of gains in yesterday's session. in the equity market on the s&p 500, up by about 0.1%. the rustle up by about 0.4%. -- the russell up by about 0.4%. tomorrow, $24 billion of 30 year supply. i think that is the story this time around. a couple of weeks ago when we had that ugly seven year auction, we were all over the place. tons of volatility all related. -- volatility already. if this demand isn't good later, that would be a shocker. maybe what would dictate it is cpi in about 60 minutes' time. let's finish on this, foreign-exchange. tom: go to foreign-exchange, please. jonathan: thanks, tom. [laughter] dollar index, 92 handle, euro-dollar just south of $1.19. t

lisa: we are hearing about higher taxes. we hearing about existing -- cuts to existing programs? jack: the focus is on biden's proposal. the main pay for is what you heard from biden on taxes, higher corporate rate, higher income top income rate. that will probably not cover the entire cost of a $3 trillion bill. there is a knowledge in washington that there may be others, but we have not heard specifics on cuts. jonathan: great to catch up. jack fitzpatrick in washington. important testimony with chair powell and secretary yellen -- very close to saying chair yellen. it is so recent that she left the federal reserve. to see those two together will be interesting. you will like this line -- raise a glass to jay and the fomc. lisa: i saw that and i was thinking, a lot of people agree with him but there are such mixed feelings about the experiment we are embedded in. how will the fed extricate itself from these policies? especially because of this close partnership with janet yellen. the idea here, they are spending more and a

lisa: something happened. angela merkel's comments about shutting down the nation over easter was deeply sobering. she reversed it in an unusual policy, it still stands out as highlighting the starkness of reality there. how far they have fallen behind. eu summit taking place yelling at each other over who is to blame for the bungling of the vaccine rollout, not giving confidence. jonathan: let's add to this. great to have you with us on the program. the stories are so obvious. three months. it takes a while to see it breakthrough markets cleanly. why? >> on vaccines and reopening? jonathan: on euro and u.s. specifically. euro-dollar held in until the last couple days. travel, ledger stocks have performed nicely. we keep asking, is it well priced? >> i hear you on that. we have to be cautious of the fact that the vaccine alone and cobit alone is not the whole story. -- covid alone is not the whole story. how are those companies affected by their slow rollout of the vaccine? the domestic implications are negati

lisa: we are going to get to the auction talk.esterday's 10 year auction was lackluster, but at least it wasn't terrible. that is a good thing. but 30 year will be more terrible considering this agreement we have in markets and politically. jonathan: a $10 billion bond and loan offering, and the yield on the five-year tranche came in at about 5.5%. that is junk debt. that's rock-bottom. that's an airline. tom: very tranchey of you, jon. i bought the austrian in december. jonathan: look out for the issuance on the corporate side today as well. we are rising big was investment grade debt at the same time as the treasury comes in big with 30 year maturities. a lot to discuss. tom: i thought it was like i did us -- like adidas. jonathan: we are not doing that this morning. [laughter] peter oppenheimer, goldman sachs chief global equity strategist, wondering what he's walked into. can you invest in europe, given what is happening with this vaccine rollout? peter: absolutely, i think so. the vaccine rollout outside of the u.k., in the r

lisa: people are exhausted.s been a long 12 months and people are done and states are responding, they are dealing with economic issues. there's a question of whether they can hold off anymore. jonathan: coming up, the bloomberg opinion columnist and former nato supreme allied commander. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. no drama here. bond market yields up by three or four basis points. a ton of supply in the next way for hours per this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. here is the price action. great conversation coming up on the show. we rollover just a little bit. the russell unchanged, the nasdaq down after a monster day of gains. i think tesla up about 20 on a single session. to the bond market, 10 supply later on. yields higher just a little bit. the curves just steepening. a mild one so far. the dollar really volatile over the last couple of sessions. a huge move against the yen on monday. today, the dollar unchanged. tom: e.m. is a mess as we

lisa: i will send this to you. tom: lycees -- lisa's kids do art. lisa: they do great art.han: good to those of you in the new york. this is bloomberg. ritika: here is first word news. president biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993. the money would help pay for the long-term economic recovery program designed as a follow-up to the pandemic relief bill. the package will include initiatives on infrastructure, climate, and explant -- expanded help for poor americans. it will test the president's ability to attract republican support and keep democrats unified. and former president trump is vowing to punish house republicans who voted to impeach him by backing primary challenges. but a new congressional map may show some doing his work for him. six of the 10 expected to lose congressional seats. several live so close to their district boundary that it could be moved to another district, where they then face another incumbent. we have learned the european union is preparing to start legal action against the u.k. in a major escalation of post-brexit tensi

lisa: the hope trade. coming up in the next hour, representative gregory meeks, the democrat from new york and chair of the house foreign affairs committee. looking forward to that conversation. from new york this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity markets down 15 points on the s&p 500, -0.4%. your headlines in the bond market, tens, 1.77% briefly. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is planning to take on the nations challenges -- the nation's challenges on inequality. he will start to outline his plan tomorrow in a speech in pittsburgh. the president's remarks will lay out the infrastructure part of the $3 trillion spending package . social spending programs will be unveiled next month. the immediate crisis of the suez canal blockage has ended, but the battle over damages a just beginning -- over damages is just beginni

lisa: this is important.his is what troy guy ascii -- troy gayeski was saying last week, of skybridge. it makes sense for bitcoin to rise in tandem with rising yields and expectations of more spending for the united states. tom: what i see in the bank uproar, the margin call uproar is what we don't know. there's a lot of news flow today, but what don't we know right now? jonathan:jonathan: we still don't know what the bank's new -- what the banks knew. it leads to one tricky question. if they knew a lot, what were they doing? if they didn't know, why didn't they know. if the sec gets on the phone, no one questions what they are asking. tom: lots of different essays on this. one just posting on bloomberg. the basic theme is we have seen it before, but it does seem to be contained. jonathan: so far, but what is curious about this, and i do think it is important, this happened in a pretty normal market. no sign of stress. no abnormal events took place, and yet something broke. that's how you learn about how load

lisa: maybe. i think there is a bit of a difference this time around with the number of different supply chains that have been breaking down. you've got the semiconductor issues, this is yet another kink in a broader story of infrastructure breakdowns. i wonder how much this encourages people to change some supply chains and invest more in infrastructure. i wonder how much you will hear this kind of commentary from john. jonathan: i hope the fed chair is asked about this. want to turn to the fx market. it was brutal for anything but the u.s. bond reaching 10 year. the euro broke down. euro-dollar 1.1830. the same conversation is taking place in foreign exchange as well. the global cyclical trade in 2021 already starting to see signs of it breaking down. in the fx market there much of this year already. let's bring in berkeley's head of fx and em macro strategy. that break down in euro-dollar in the last 24 hours. we had the incremental bad news out of europe and better news out of the united state

lisa: that goes to the heart of the question. which is worse, inflation that under should significantly or overshoot significantly? the idea that perhaps faster growth is likely and there is a more inflationary environment. richard: it is pretty clear that the inflationary environment is worse for people invested in the market. you have to think about all we really worried about this period where inflation will be riproaring but at the same time that will benefit a lot of these areas of the economy that are cyclical, that have room to grow and will benefit from that. i would rather keep that environment than an environment where you are talks about inflationary pressures despite the fact that growth is rolling over. jonathan: let's wrap things up by trying to keep you out of trouble. when you got the fund manager survey, what was the best way of processing this? it is what people say, not necessarily what they do. what they are saying is it is the largest since march, 2018. the question we keep going back to, huge performance in

lisa: 6.5% of the growth expectation. looking at full employment by the end of next year and still no rate hikes. a question, at one point -- what point will they care? it has not led to a material tightening in financial conditions but everyone will be watching credit spreads and other signs of possible tightening. jonathan: s&p 500 lower. emerging markets starting to see a move underway. yesterday was brazil with a 75 basis point height. this morning in turkey with a 200 basis point move and dollar lire is making a move lower. tom: this is a change of the certitude of international investment x number of months ago. we saw this six or seven weeks ago and it continues where e.m. just is not participating. jonathan: there is comfort in america at the federal reserve. let's get to the price action this morning. what a couple of days it's been in this market. let's just start from 25,000 feet. yields up nine basis points. 170 -- 1.7330 right now. through much of this morning lisa the nasdaq 100 down in and around one percen

jonathan: lisa, thank you. let sit on claims for a moment. 725,000 is the estimate 12 months into this mess. tom: let's go to first principles to review for our audience. this is a thrilling number because it is a weekly number. normal in a bloomberg economy is 200, 220, 230 is a grim number. we blow out to where we were and we are back but we are back in trouble the level of normal stop that is not acceptable. jonathan: we still have to work through. that is why the fed once to stay on course and do nothing for a long, long time. daniel katzive joins us now. today it is about the ecb doing something. what do you think they can do? what do you think they need to do? daniel: we think they have to send a strong signal today that they are not going to tolerate financial decisions. i think in our view, they will signal their going use the purchase program more aggressively to contain the upside of the yields. time will tell how successful that is. tom: how critical is the physical impulse for europe right now? if t

lisa: details.lso, a sense of what are the nonnegotiable aspects of what could be described as a wish list, and how he plans to cater to both sides of the democratic party. he is not catering to republicans at this point. i will tie this back to what you are talking about in the market story. there is a question of what it will do two markets that are already turbocharged by easy monetary policies to get 2.2 $5 trillion of stimulus. could this lead to inflationary impulse that is longer-lasting than people are expecting? tom: what do you see an investment grade and high yield? is high yield still priced to perfection, or giving way like faith and credit? lisa: it is still priced to perfection, but if you look at the sheer loss tied to the treasury component of corporate debt, they are dramatic. is the worst loss for a quarter since 1980. if you take a look at investment grade bonds, the worst quarterly performance since 2008, during the depths of the financial crisis. will this lead to be wooing the

lisa: choppy for the foreseeable future.ot necessarily a big weakening or strengthening of the dollar. less commitment in the high-yielding space. what could you see breaking us out of that? what are the risks to either push the dollar stronger or substantially weaker entering a new cycle of trading? >> i suppose we have to go back to the risks with respect to covid and coronavirus. hopefully we do not get bad news on that front. hopefully it carries on being positive, but the market still has to get through the tail end of this pandemic, and that means a lot of the economic data this quarter, maybe in q2, could disappoint. the market could be disappointed. the fed could appear to have the upper hand with its scenario. that could bring back some of the scenarios we were talking about earlier in the year. then, when we get to the middle of the year, we will have more confirmation of the better outlook in growth. i think it will be one way or the other. i think we have had these disappointments in terms of growth and, finally,

lisa: the u.k. treasury yields, the gilt yields did bleed into the rest of the finance market globally. it's been a big story for everyone. jonathan: you guys are out of control today. 15, 16 points higher. 37.81 on the s&p 500. the yield creeping a little higher. here the estimates. yield payroll reports coming up in 4.5 minutes. your estimate, 200,000. the range as it has been, wide, wide, wide. plus 500 thousand the bottom end of the range -35,000. the payrolls report is around the corner. michael mckee is reacting to those numbers, breaking them down, then jeff rosenberg of blackrock. this is (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you'

lisa: the key is that it is controlled. it's the same kind of rapid movement people don't understand air pockets of liquidity. which definitely have people come down. we talked with the jobs report on friday. the drumroll is getting louder. we will be getting that adp employment figure for february. we are expecting about 165,000 new jobs to be added. bloomberg economics has it higher at about 250. it's unclear what this means. we are expecting to see progress as we see a reopening in economies. also today that drumroll to fed chair powell and tomorrow continues to get louder with more fed speak. patrick harker and charlie evans all coming out. interesting to see how concerned they are to reiterate what brainard was saying about the bond market volatility. also with their key metrics will be to determine whether they are getting closer to their goals. evening out in the employment figure, it is -- is it an evening out in the wealth gap. i cannot wait for this. i know you guys are so excited. i wait for this every month. thi

lisa, this chairman powell lean into the? lisa: there is concern about the base of the rate rise. how much -- just to put into perspective, 10-year treasury yield have risen in 2021 which puts it on pace for the biggest increase since 2016. this is getting people's attention. jonathan: we look like this this thursday morning. equity market shaping up, down 21 on the s&p 500 index. in the fx market on the euro-dollar coming down a little more than 1/10 of 1%. yes one -- you have stability on the 10 year. the nasdaq futures are down another 96. lisa: this is interesting to see. today we will be watching the opec+ meeting. very interesting to see whether saudi arabia will maintain some of these production cuts in place which was key as part of their january agreement. they want to wrap it up even more. we will be getting jobless claims at eight earthy decks at 8:30 -- claims at 8:30. the question is, and what direction? if we get an underwhelming report, does that send treasury yields lower? the idea that you could potentially get more fiscal stimulus down in washington, d.c. one of

jonathan: this is the story, lisa.f you think all of the stuff is going to happen and you don't believe the fed hikes interest rates, that is a green light for higher interest rates. lisa: i think the fear is legitimate. let's say the economy does not over perform. but the u.s. has to increase its deficit that much more substantially. could we see yields go even higher, tom, even at a time of slowing growth simply because of the supply demand dynamic? tom: ian lincoln, who is hugely respective, he goes out with an eye on 1.7%, moving toward where priya misra is. kevin cirilli as our chief washington correspondent. he knows the causes of this conversation and that $1.9 trillion umph. is there anyone who believes it will be less than one point $9 trillion? kevin: you could see the final number be a little bit lower, especially if they are able to get out some of the funding for mentation of certain projects. also they will be hovering around $1.9 trillion. tom: what is a look like? i haven't heard the probabilities of a

lisa: they move in tandem.i will buy some gamestop when jonathan is filming one of his properties. the vix, 24.61. stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. senator rick scott on balance of power at the noon hour. ♪ want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile, you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network? sure thing! and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. jonathan: it is yesterday in reverse. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. "the content of the open" starts right now. s&p 500 futures up 1%. we begin with the one issue dominating equity investors. >> there's a case for rotation. >> the transition from growth to value. >> the steepening of the yield curve. >> we will see days where tech b

lisa: is about fairness. lawrence: i reached out to them and ask them about their support and they said this is not a anti-trans thing because property is one of the first properties that allowed trans people -- we have so much more on the show we have to take into the streets we are going to talk about how social leaders are affecting america and why the people outside still want donald trump to run in 2024. stay right here don't leave. ♪ ♪ ♪. lawrence: look at the beautiful city back now with the big sunday show the crowd ate up the president speech and i got to meet with the biggest bands in the maga movement they were out there supporting the president. watch. >> donald trump is the only man that cared about us the american people. >> i want him to run for the house and i want to him to take nancy's gavel from her. >> i hope he runs in the house in 2022 we can impeach by didn't come all. >> you want him to go to the house and then run for president. >> he does right for everybody he's not perfect he says

lisa: but they can't sell everything march 30.k of the hundreds of billions of dollars in the treasuries that people have to deal with, if the fed does not extend this, you'd have to think they get on that earlier. jonathan: if that's the outcome. we need to discuss this more. it's a complex issue. for this market, yields higher, equities lower, and a news conference in several hours. the federal reserve decision and the countdown continues. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> strong words from president biden about latin america putin, in an interview the president called him a killer, saying he would pay the price for alleged interference in the u.s. presidential election. the u.s. intelligence has concluded that putin ordered operations to hurt president biden's chances. mitch mcconnell says there's no chance republicans will tax hikes to pay for the infrastructure plan. mcconnell predict that democrats will use the process known as reconciliation to get a tax hike through with a simple majority, the same process that passed the stimulus p